One of the many disadvantages of being a small market team in baseball is the harsh reality that often teams will be forced to part with their superstar players as they rise through the arbitration process.  As has been the case in the past with Matt Garza and James Shields, Tampa Bay is expected to field trade offers for starter David Price this offseason.

Price, a 28-year-old left-handed pitcher and the 2012 AL Cy Young award winner, regressed a bit this past season, posting a 3.33 ERA with 151 strikeouts over 186.2 innings pitched in 2013.  For his 6-year major league career, Price owns a 71-39 record with a 3.19 ERA, 1.158 WHIP, and 876 strikeouts in his 973 professional innings.  A three-time All-Star, Price earned $10.1 million in 2013, and is scheduled to receive a pay increase in each of his two seasons before he reaches free agency in 2016. 

In January 2011 Tampa faced the similar situation of a star pitcher getting too expensive for their payroll and decided they needed to part with Garza; they sent him, along with OF Fernando Perez and LHP Zachary Rosscup to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for prospects RHP Chris Archer, SS Hak-Ju Lee, OF Brandon Guyer, and catcher Robinson Chirinos.

Then last December a similar circumstance occurred with RHP James Shields, who was jettisoned along with RHP Wade Davis and a PTBNL for OF Wil Myers, RHP Jake Odorizzi, LHP Mike Montgomery, and 3B Patrick Leonard.  The similarity in these trades is that the Rays’ received two elite prospects in Archer/Lee and Myers/Odorizzi, along with two other solid players.  However, both trades included other players of value leaving Tampa, allowing the Rays to score four total prospects in these deals. 

Although the farm system has been depleted the past two years due to big league graduations, the Nationals could still make a competitive offer for Price.  Washington would presumably begin offer Anthony Rendon and the choice of two of AJ Cole, Brian Goodwin, and Taylor Jordan, along with a fourth player like Zach Walters.  I would guess this initial offer is rejected, with the Nationals’ final offer being Rendon, Cole, Goodwin, and another prospect.

This potential package would be quite tempting for Tampa, but probably twenty other teams will make offers for Price, so the competition will be fierce.  While the opportunity to add Price to the Nationals’ starting rotation would be a coup, other teams lacking front line starters like Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmermann could covet him more.  Teams with impressive prospects such as the Los Angeles Dodgers (Joc Peterson, Corey Seager, and Julio Urias), St. Louis Cardinals (Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller, and Kolten Wong), and Texas Rangers (Jorge Alfaro, Martin Perez, and Luis Sardinas) are expected to have significant interest and put together a compelling offer. 

Most expect the Nationals to make an offer for Price, as another outstanding starting pitcher would significantly bolster this roster.  However, the cost of parting with starting second baseman Rendon, two to three other top-ranked prospects, and paying him $25+ million the next two seasons should temper Washington’s desire to acquire Price.  In addition with Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann seeking lucrative contract extensions, the Nationals’ payroll might not be able to sustain another expensive superstar in future seasons.

The Nationals should ultimately pass on trading for Price, unless the cost unexpectedly drops.  Rather the Nationals should look to sign one of the many quality starters available (Bronson Arroyo, Scott Feldman, Dan Haren, Paul Maholm, Ricky Nolasco, or Jason Vargas) or trade for someone like Kyle Lohse.  In the end, expect the Nationals to be part of the chase for David Price, but the competition will make the terms excessive, and force Washington to look elsewhere in their continuing search for another starting pitcher.  

The 2013 Nationals season must be viewed as a disappointment, as they were unable to return to the playoffs after a breakout year in 2012.  One of the largest individual disappointments for the Nationals was 26-year-old infielder Danny Espinosa, who many, myself included, predicted a monster year in his third major league season. 

Espinosa was unable to build upon on his impressive first two seasons in Washington, in which he hit .236/.323/.414 in 2011 and .247/.315/.402 in 2012 while playing outstanding defense at second base.  In short, Espinosa had positioned himself as one of the best young second baseman in baseball.

Unfortunately everything went wrong for Espinosa in 2013, as he injured his right wrist early in the year and never recovered, hitting .158/.193/.272 over 44 games before the Nationals mercifully sent him to Triple-A.  After the demotion, Espinosa continued to flounder, hitting only .216/.280/.286 the rest of the year.  His season was such a catastrophe Espinosa did not even return to Washington when the major league rosters expanded in September. 

Presently Espinosa finds himself at a crossroads in his career, as his lingering injury allowed National’s top prospect Anthony Rendon to surpass him on the second base depth chart.  In addition, rumors have mentioned that the organization is disappointed with Espinosa, with the outcome an inevitable divorce this winter. 

If it were my decision, I would heavily insist Espinosa to undergo surgery this winter, and allow him to rebuild his depressed value next spring as I am loath to sell-low in this situation.  That said if the Nationals sever the relationship with Espinosa, he could have a surprising number of suitors. 

This free agent market for available shortstops feels thin with Stephen Drew, Rafael Furcal, and Johnny Peralta highlighting an otherwise mediocre crop.  Aside from superstar Robinson Cano, the second base market is represented by Omar Infante then also drops off quickly.  Considering the shallow markets at both positions and that he is under contract for four more seasons, Espinosa could represent an interesting low risk-high reward opportunity to a opposing general manager.   

Assuming he is shopped this offseason, I have projected the teams that should have interest and wildly speculated at possible returns for Espinosa’s services. 

Hypothetical Trade A     ->            Washington sends Danny Espinosa to Pittsburgh for LHP Justin Wilson and a prospect

The Pirates have shown a tendency in recent seasons to take chances on players following subpar seasons, specifically A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, and Mark Melancon. In addition Pittsburgh could have a potential need at shortstop if they part with free agent Clint Barmes and do not feel comfortable with Jordy Mercer.  As a small market team with a deep farm system, the Pirates could take the chance on Espinosa bouncing back with a change of scenery.

Wilson had an outstanding rookie season in 2013, posting a 2.08 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 73.2 innings pitched for Pittsburgh.  A 26-year-old lefty who can face both lefties and righties are valuable, but the Pirates might relish selling-high on Wilson’s breakout season.

Hypothetical Trade B     ->            Washington sends Danny Espinosa to Houston for LHP prospect Josh Hader

With only Jonathan Villar and Marwin Gonzalez on the shortstop depth chart and mega-prospect Carlos Correa still a few seasons away, Houston could be in the position to shrewdly buy-low on Espinosa, while biding time until their farm system fully matures. 

Hader, a local product from Millersville, MD, was acquired from Baltimore as part of the Bud Norris trade last summer.  A lanky, 19-year-old left-handed pitching prospect, Hader posted a 2.77 ERA in 107.1 innings in Low-A in 2013, and would be an excellent arm to add to any farm system.

Hypothetical Trade C     ->            Washington sends Danny Espinosa to Toronto for LHP Brett Cecil

According to reports Toronto has a desire to improve at second base this offseason, as they were disappointed by Maicer Izturis and light-hitting Ryan Goins.  With a bloated payroll due to their trade with the Marlins last November, Espinosa’s friendly contract could particularly appeal to the Blue Jays. 

Cecil, a local product from the University of Maryland, is unlikely to be available for only Espinosa, but would significantly upgrade the left side of the Nationals’ bullpen.

Hypothetical Trade D     ->            Washington sends Danny Espinosa to Kansas City for RHP Aaron Crow and a Prospect

Emilio Bonifacio made a nice impression after an August trade and Johnny Giavotella is still in Kansas City, but after making a statement with 86 wins in 2013, the Royals could look to bolster their weakest offensive position, second base, this winter.  Possessing bullpen depth and a quality farm system, the Royals should factor in all trade discussions for second baseman this offseason.

Crow, drafted by the Nationals in 2008 but did not agree to terms, had a 3.38 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 48 innings this past season, but is due a raise in his first year of arbitration.  Considering the Royals bullpen depth, they might be tempted to part with Crow and a prospect to acquire Espinosa.

Now that the Nationals have seemingly resolved who will be the next manager in Washington, namely former Arizona third base coach Matt Williams, the front office must now turn their attention to improving the roster for a World Series chase in 2014.  Although resolving who will be the 4^th starter and acquiring some depth for the bullpen are likely the top priorities this winter, the Nationals must upgrade their bench before arriving in Viera next spring.

Currently the Nationals reserves are shaping up as Scott Hairston as the 4^th outfielder and some combination of Jeff Kobernus, Steve Lombardozzi, or Zach Walters serving as the team’s utility infielder.  This construction leaves one or more open positions on the bench, with the primary need being a power hitter who can play first base.  On the surface, a left-handed hitter might be more beneficial as a pinch hitter in the late innings (think Chad Tracy), but perhaps a right-handed bat might compliment Adam LaRoche and give him the occasional day off against a lefty starting pitcher.

Given the present construction of the roster and the fact that I am a complete sucker for any rock band doing a Reunion Tour, the best person for the Nationals to target to help bolster their bench would be former fan-favorite, Mike Morse. 

Morse, aka Beast Mode, was acquired from Seattle and flourished in Washington to become a strong leader in the locker room and one of the most popular players in team history.  In fact, his walk up song, A-ha’s classic “Take On Me” in still played somewhat in homage to Morse each night during the 7^th inning stretch.  His leadership and powerful right-handed bat might be just the type of shrewd signing that helps the Nationals reach the postseason next fall.

Coming off a poor 2013 in his last year before free agency, Morse struggled in his return to Seattle, batting .226/.283/.410 before an August trade to Baltimore.  Once an Oriole, Morse was pitiful, hitting .103/.133/.103 over 29 at-bats before being shut down for the season with an injured left wrist.  Now 31-years-old, Morse recently underwent surgery on his wrist, and with a projected 6-8 week recovery period, he is expected to be fully healthy in time for spring training.  

Morse does not enter his first round at free agency in a prime position, coming off a subpar season and recovering from offseason surgery, but Morse’s jaw-dropping right-handed power will still attract suitors this winter.  A poor defensive outfielder and a below-average base runner, the value in Morse lies almost entirely in his hitting prowess.  Morse is a career .281/.334/.473 batter who hits right-handed pitching (career .802 OPS) nearly as well as left-handed pitching (career .819 OPS) and has averaged a home run every 22.4 at-bats for his career.  Certainly his extensive list of injuries is a concern, but when healthy, Morse is an extremely productive, above-average major league hitter. 

I envision Morse filling the role as a “Super-Sub” for the Nationals, a player in line for 275-350 at-bats, collecting 125-175 at first base,  50-75 ABs as a late-inning pinch hitter, another 50-75 ABs as the designated hitter in interleague play, and an additional 25-50 ABs  in the rare instances he plays the outfield.  Certainly this number could increase for Morse if injuries arise to LaRoche or Bryce Harper, both of whom are recovering from recent surgeries.  Assuming he can stay relatively healthy and the Nationals do a reasonable good job maximizing his opportunities, Morse could be quite an asset off the bench next season.

Considering the expected large salary arbitration increases for Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann, the National’s payroll could face a possible squeeze this winter.  That said, the Nationals bench was unacceptably poor last season, and the front office must overhaul this area of the team prior to next year.  He may receive larger offers in free agency, but if general manager Mike Rizzo can convince Morse to return on a 1-year deal worth $2.5-$3.0 million, with some incentives, I believe the Nationals should pounce on the opportunity to bring Beast Mode back to Washington.