Amidst tremendous hype and expectations, the 2013 Washington Nationals fell short of their masterful 2012 season, finishing with a record of 86-76 and missing the playoffs.  With rumors circulating tying the Nationals to superstars Robinson Cano, David Price, and Max Scherzer, we can expect general manager Mike Rizzo to be active this winter to reshape the roster.  The Nationals enter this offseason with a seemingly short shopping list, as they figure to look for another starting pitcher, depth in the bullpen, and help for the bench. 

Today in Part 1 of my offseason Master Plan, I focus on refining the National’s pitching staff for an anticipated return trip to the 2014 playoffs.  Last season the pitching staff struggled with injuries to Ross Detwiler and Stephen Strasburg and uncharacteristically poor seasons from Dan Haren and Drew Storen. 

Still the Nationals’ pitchers managed another quality season, posting a 3.59 team ERA (8^th in MLB), 13^th in total strikeouts (1,236), 1^st in fewest walks allowed (405), and 13^th in batting average against (.249).  Certainly a far cry from their 2012 staff numbers of a 3.33 team ERA, 1,325 strikeouts, 497 walks allowed, and .237 batting average against, but solid numbers nonetheless.

For the Nationals to achieve their lofty team goals in 2014, the pitching staff must perform closer to their elite 2012 numbers than their 2013 statistics.  In this endeavor, I attempted to obtain a quality #4 starting pitcher and bolstered the Nationals overall bullpen depth, all while staying within a reasonable $52-53 million dollar budget for the pitching staff. 

2014 Payroll ->                  $129 million       ($118.29 million in 2013)

My Transactions:

#1           Traded 2B Danny Espinosa to Toronto for LHP Brett Cecil

#2           Traded RHP Ryan Mattheus and RHP Robert Benincasa to Minnesota for OF Ryan Doumit

#3           Traded RHP Rafael Soriano plus Cash to Arizona for RHP Brandon McCarthy

#3           Sign RHP Jesse Crain, 1-year $4.0 million plus $2 million in Incentives

#4           Non-Tendered RHP Ross Ohlendorf

2014 Starting Rotation

#1                           Stephen Strasburg                                                          $ 3.9 million

#2                           Gio Gonzalez                                                                     $ 8.6 million

#3                           Jordan Zimmermann                                                    $ 10.2 million

#4                           (Brandon McCarthy)                                                           $ 9 million

#5                           Ross Detwiler                                                                    $ 2.6 million

                                                                                Salary Total =                     $34.3 million

The Nationals starting rotation once again in 2014 will be front-lined by Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann.  These three excellent starters could possibly form the strongest trio of pitchers in major league baseball.  

In his second season after Tommy John surgery and first full season, Stephen Strasburg took additional steps toward blossoming into a true Ace-level starting pitcher, providing Washington with a 3.00 ERA and 191 strikeouts over 183 innings pitched.  Recent offseason elbow surgery could affect his ability to stay healthy next season, but if things go as expected, Strasburg will be the Nationals starting pitcher on Opening Day.

Following a masterful season in 2012 with a 21-8 record, a 2.89 ERA, and a 3^rd place finish in the NL Cy Young voting, Gio Gonzalez was nearly as good in 2013, giving the Nationals a 3.36 ERA, 1.252 WHIP, and 192 strikeouts in 195.2 innings pitched.  Gio has evolved into one of the better starting pitchers in the National League and should post another excellent season in 2014.

Similar to Gio, Jordan Zimmermann has developed into one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball, posting a 19-9 record with a 3.25 ERA, and 161 strikeouts in 213.1 innings pitched in 2013.  A #3 starter in name only, Zimmermann was selected as an All-Star this past season, likely the first of multiple career appearances for this terrific pitcher.

Unfortunately after Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Zimmermann, question marks exist.  After trying the past two years to find a #4 starter to solidify the rotation in Edwin Jackson and Dan Haren, the Nats again find themselves in the same predicament this winter.  There is depth in free agent starters,however, rather than signing someone, my plan has the Nationals engaging Arizona in trade discussions centering on closer Rafael Soriano for starter Brandon McCarthy.

McCarthy, 30-years-old and in the final year of a 2-year $15.5 million deal, disappointed in the desert this past season, as injuries helped account for a 4.53 ERA over only 135 innings.  However when healthy, McCarthy is a quality major league starter, owning a career 4.10 ERA and 1.295 WHIP over his 8-year career.  McCarthy does not possess overwhelming stuff, but competes by limiting his walks (career 2.4 BB/9) and home runs allowed (1.0 per 9 innings). 

Arizona’s most pressing need this offseason is finding a quality closer to solidify their bullpen, and they appear to possess depth in their starting rotation.  With McCarthy scheduled to make $9 million this season, and Soriano making $11 million with a 2015 vesting option, this trade could quickly resolve the biggest weakness for each team while being nearly payroll neutral. 

After a fantastic 2012 with a 3.40 ERA in 164.1 innings, Ross Detwiler struggled with injuries in 2013, pitching only 71.1 innings before being placed on the disabled list in early July.  Questions surround Detwiler’s ability to stay healthy, but his track record of success and potential upside should give him the inside track for the #5 starter position entering spring training.

Other pitchers expected to compete for the #5 starter position include Taylor Jordan, Nate Karns, and Tanner Roark.  All three pitchers made favorable impressions last season, but the Nationals would prefer to see Jordan and Karns receive additional seasoning in Triple-A , and Roark capture a spot in the bullpen. 

2014 Bullpen

Closer                                   Drew Storen                                       $3.60 million

Stopper                                Tyler Clippard                                    $6 million

RH Set-Up                           Jesse Crain                                       $4 million plus Incentives

LH Set-Up                           Brett Cecil                                         $900,000

Mid-Relief                          Craig Stammen                                    $1.375 million

Mid-Relief                          Christian Garcia                                   $500,000

Long Reliever                    Tanner Roark                                       $500,000

                                                   Bullpen Salary Total =                     $16.875 million

                                                   Pitching Staff Salary Total =         $51.175 million

After blowing the save in Game 5 in 2012 and then watching the Nationals sign Soriano last winter, Storen seemed unsettled much of 2013 and struggled to a 4.52 ERA in 61.2 innings pitched.  For various reasons, most anticipate the Nationals will try to trade one of Clippard, Storen, or Soriano this offseason. 

I expect the Nationals to aggressively shop Soriano and gamble on Storen rebounding to his previous norms, specifically a career 3.40 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, and 8.4 K/9 ratio.   With a mid-90s fastball, a quality slider, and experience in the role, there is little reason Storen cannot return to the closer role in the Nationals bullpen next year. 

An elite set-up man, Clippard completed another excellent season in 2013, pitching 71 innings with a 2.41 ERA, 0.859 WHIP and 73 strikeouts.  Clippard will receive quite a raise in arbitration this winter, but expect him to continue his usual brilliance in the late innings in 2014.

Jesse Crain was perhaps the best reliever in baseball in the first half of last season, posting a 0.74 ERA with 46 strikeouts over 36.2 innings along with a selection to the AL all-star team.  Unfortunately Crain suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in early July.  Coming off an injury, Crain will likely seek a 1-year contract to improve his value before next winter.  A hard-throwing reliever with a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, Crain would be another power arm to add to the Nationals bullpen and help negate the loss of Soriano.  Washington should offer Crain a 1-year contract worth $4 million dollars, with another $2 million in incentives, and gamble he stays healthy in 2014.

To help combat the Nationals difficulties last season with their left-handed relief corps, I propose the Nationals trade Danny Espinosa to Toronto, who needs a second baseman, for LHP Brett Cecil.  A former University of Maryland product and 2013 all-star, Cecil spent years struggling as a starter before flourishing as a reliever, throwing 60.2 innings with a 2.82 ERA and 70 strikeouts last season.With a powerful curveball and a heavy fastball, Cecil is particularly effective against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .458 OPS in 2013 and a career .618 OPS.  Cecil is entering his first year of arbitration, and Toronto could relish the opportunity to acquire four years of an everyday player, Espinosa, for three seasons of a reliever.  This trade could resolve a big issue for the other team and superficially makes sense for each club.

Craig Stammen had another excellent season in middle relief, making 55 appearances and throwing 81.2 innings with a 2.76 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 2013.  Signed for just $1.375 million in 2014, expect this groundball specialist to continue pitching in the middle innings next year.

Christian Garcia enters the spring as a true X-factor, as his strikeout acumen could give the Nationals a valuable weapon in the middle innings.  However his lengthy injury history makes him difficult to count on to stay healthy.  If Garcia cannot seize the job in Viera or ends up on the disabled list, he will face competition from Fernando Abad, Xavier Cedeno, Erik Davis, and Ian Krol. 

Emerging from near anonymity last year, Tanner Roark made a lasting impression with a 7-1 record and a 1.51 ERA after receiving an August promotion.  Roark should compete for the 5^th starter position, but if he falls short, he should be an asset in long relief and as a spot starter. 

****

While dreams of adding David Price, Jeff Samardzija, or Max Scherzer to the starting rotation would be magnificent, unless the Nationals significantly increase payroll this forthcoming season, it is difficult to manage another superstar salary within the budget.  Not to mention the cost in terms of young players to trade for one of these pitchers, which would further deplete an already mediocre farm system. 

Therefore I took the approach that the Nationals would eventually pass on these names, and instead focus on trying to find a #4 starter either via trade or free agency.  Although free agency is deep with pitching, I see an opportunity to part with Soriano to fill a need in the rotation in Brandon McCarthy.  McCarthy has struggled with injuries in the past, but he is an above-average starting pitcher angling for a multiyear free agent contract next winter.  This formula has not worked the past two offseasons with Edwin Jackson or Dan Haren, but I figure “third times a charm” this winter with McCarthy. 

Trading for McCarthy means parting with quality closer Rafael Soriano, who had a productive season in Washington last year, but seemed to be a poor fit in terms of chemistry.  Sending Soriano to Arizona does resolve issues for each team, but would hypothetically leave the Nationals without much depth in the bullpen. 

Therefore the Nationals should divert some of Soriano’s salary to upgrading their setup men, specifically by signing Jesse Crain and trading for Brett Cecil.  Crain’s power arsenal would be a nice contrast to Clippard and he could close if Storen happens to struggle.  Cecil resolves the Nationals problem of needing a left-handed reliever to face the many quality left-handed hitters in the NL East.

Overall, this plan gives the Nationals five above-average starting pitchers, with the depth to combat injuries, along with a high quality, versatile bullpen.  In addition, I did not part with any top prospects and stayed below budget, giving the front office flexibility to make midseason trades if the need arises.  With these additions and a little luck with injuries, the Nationals pitching staff should be one of the five best in baseball in 2014. 

Is it April yet? 

* Reminder return on Wednesday (11/13) for Part 2, in which we analyze the Nationals hitters, and please continue to spread the word about NatsGM *

Earlier this week notable FoxSports reporter Ken Rosenthal tweeted the Nationals were heavily pursuing another elite starting pitcher this offseason, namely David Price or Max Scherzer, to pair with Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmermann.  Scherzer, the leading contender for the 2013 Cy Young award, surprisingly could be available as Detroit looks to move LHP Drew Smyly into their rotation and fill more pressing needs at second base and closer.

Scherzer, 29-years-old, finished this season 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts over 214.1 innings pitched.  Arizona’s 1^st round pick in 2006 when Mike Rizzo was their scouting director, Scherzer has a career 73-45 record, a 3.67 ERA, and 1,069 strikeouts over his 1,019 innings pitched.  In his final season of salary arbitration before reaching free agency, Scherzer is expected to command between $13-14 million in 2014. 

Only under contract for one season before reaching free agency, the price to acquire Scherzer should still be quite steep, as true #1 starting pitchers are rarely made available; thus, probably 8-15 teams will inquire on Scherzer’s potential availability.  Aside from the connection to Rizzo, the Scherzer rumor makes sense as the Nationals could offer second baseman Anthony Rendon and reliever Drew Storen to resolve Detroit’s two biggest needs.

Using Rendon and Storen as the beginning of negotiations, Detroit should still command one or two additional prospects, as Scherzer will return draft pick compensation next winter if he departs as a free agent.  The Nationals would seemingly exclude top prospect Lucas Giolito from negotiations, which by default should force them to offer Detroit a choice of prospects A.J. Cole or Brian Goodwin.  Finally, Detroit would probably insist on a final, lesser regarded prospect like Brett Mooneyham or Michael Taylor.

Assuming the deal centers on a package of Rendon, Storen, and Cole/Goodwin, the Nationals should strongly consider trading for Scherzer.  Theoretically the Nationals could replace Rendon with Danny Espinosa at second base, and relievers Tyler Clippard and Rafael Soriano can help cover the loss of Storen in the bullpen. 

The loss of two prospects, especially Cole, would further deplete the farm system, but the demonstrable upgrade to the starting rotation would immediately make the Nationals the favorites to win the National League.  Having Scott Boras as his agent, the Nationals could face a difficult, and expensive, proposition of signing Scherzer long-term, but the near guarantee of draft pick compensation provides an excellent safety net if he signs elsewhere next winter.

In the end, I am skeptical Detroit trades Scherzer, as I anticipate they will load up for another World Series run next season, and keeping him helps achieve that goal.  If indeed Detroit makes him available, I would expect another team coveting a front-line starting pitcher to better the Nationals potential offer of Rendon, Storen, Cole, and a Prospect.  However, if they can convince Detroit to make this hypothetical deal, they should seize the opportunity to bring Scherzer to Washington. 

**** Reminder, please return next Monday (11/11) and Wednesday (11/13) as I publish my 3^rd Annual NatsGM Offseason Manifesto, in which I unveil my hypothetical master plan if I served as Nationals’ general manager.  Thanks for stopping by.  ****

The baseball hot stove season has officially begun and the early rumors surrounding the Washington Nationals has them connected to elite players such as Robinson Cano, Matt Garza, David Price, and Max Scherzer.  While superstars deserve the headlines, the 2013 Nationals suffered from a severe lack of depth in the bullpen and on the bench.

Expect general manager Mike Rizzo to rummage through free agency to find a few veterans to round out the roster prior to spring training.  After scouring the many available names, here are five potential free agent bargains the Nationals should consider signing this offseason.

5)                            John Buck            Catcher

Wilson Ramos is the Nationals starting catcher, but considering his injury history and the inexperience of backups Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano, the Nationals should sign a quality backup this winter.  Top names such as Brian McCann and Jarrod Saltamacchia will seek starting-caliber money, but Buck could be a cheaper alternative. 

Buck had a decent season in 2013, hitting .222/.288/.365 with 15 home runs in 110 games for the Mets and Pirates.  His defense still rates as slightly above-average, so Buck could land a starting job this winter, but facing a competitive market, he may settle for a high-paying backup role.  Other free agents that could adequately fill this role include Dioner Navarro, Brayan Pena, or Kurt Suzuki.

4)                            Kelly Johnson    2B, 3B, and OF

At the risk of beating a proverbial dead-horse, the Nationals’ bench was unacceptably bad this past season and desperately needs improvements before 2014.  Seeing as how Scott Hairston, Tyler Moore, and Steve Lombardozzi currently make up the bench, the Nationals could use a veteran left-handed hitter with home run power. 

Johnson, a career .253/.335/.427 hitter who has slugged 16 dingers each of the past two seasons, can adequately play second and third base or left field.  On a reasonable 1-year deal, Johnson could be a massive upgrade to the Nationals’ bench.  Other possible alternatives for this vital bench role include Raul Ibanez, Jason Kubel, or David Murphy.

3)                            J.P. Howell         Left-Handed Relief Pitcher

The Nationals had interest in Howell last winter, but instead he signed with the Dodgers and produced a strong season with a 2.18 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 62 innings pitched.  As a lefty with two consecutive quality seasons and the ability to face both lefties and righties, Howell should better the 1-year $2.8 million contract he signed last offseason. 

Howell would fill a massive hole as a left-handed reliever in the Nationals bullpen and should be available for a 1-year contract in the $3-3.5 million dollar range.  Additional free agent lefties to consider this winter are Boone Logan, Javier Lopez, or Matt Thornton.

2)                            Jason Hammel Right-Handed Starting Pitcher

One of baseball’s more underrated pitchers, Hammel has quietly posted 12.2 Wins Above Replacement over the past five seasons.  After a terrific season in 2012 with a 3.43 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 113 strikeouts in 118 innings pitched, Hammel struggled with injuries in 2013 and provided the Orioles with 4.97 ERA in 139.1 innings.  Coming off two consecutive injury-riddled seasons, Hammel should only seek a 1-year commitment before seeking a multiyear contract in twelve months. 

The Nationals could add another starter, and on a risk verses reward basis, Hammel could be one of the better gambles in this market.  Other free agent starters the Nationals will consider include Bronson Arroyo, Scott Feldman, and Dan Haren.

1)                            Jesse Crain         Right-Handed Relief Pitcher

Even with Tyler Clippard, Rafael Soriano, or Drew Storen still in Washington, the Nationals should look to sign another late-inning arm to lengthen their bullpen.  An ideal scenario would involve a reliever coming off a down season thereby limiting his salary demands. 

Crain spent the first half of last season as perhaps the best reliever in baseball, posting a 0.74 ERA with 46 strikeouts over 36.2 innings before succumbing to a season-ending shoulder injury in June.  Because of his injury, Crain will likely seek a 1-year contract with incentives to improve his value before re-entering free agency next winter.  Other intriguing comparable names include veteran relievers Joba Chamberlain, Joel Hanrahan, or Ryan Madson.  

**** Reminder, next week begins my 3^rd Annual Offseason Manifesto, in which I describe my hypothetical master plan if I was hired as Nationals’ general manager.  Look for Part-1 on Monday (11/11) and Part-2 on Wednesday (11/13). ****

The calendar has reached November and with the Boston Red Sox championship parade finally complete (I think), each organization is now completely focused on the offseason and preparing their teams for 2014.  The early rumors have the Nationals seeking to acquire a front-line starting pitcher like Tampa Bay’s David Price or Detroit’s Max Scherzer to pair with Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmermann.  Of course, for those two superstars, the competition will be fierce as every team in baseball would be wise to investigate bringing those Aces to their organizations.

That said today I wanted to focus on a few smaller, and perhaps more realistic, trade options that could bolster Washington’s roster in 2014.  The Nationals’ biggest apparent weaknesses at this point is a lack of a consistent #4 starting pitcher, needing a quality left-handed relief pitcher, and a veteran bench bat.  After scouring other team’s rosters and considering their offseason needs as well, here are three plausible trades I hope the Nationals pursue this offseason. 

#1           Washington trades second baseman Danny Espinosa to the Toronto Blue Jays for left-handed reliever Brett Cecil

As discussed in an article last week, there is an excellent chance Espinosa finds himself a member of another organization next spring, as Rendon has surpassed him on the depth chart at second base.  The Nationals lack of left-handed relievers last season hurt them, and general manager Mike Rizzo has mentioned this as an area in need of improvement.

Toronto is desperately seeking an upgrade at second base this offseason, and might value Espinosa’s strong throwing arm on their home turf infield, his ability to play shortstop in the event of a Jose Reyes’ injury, and team-friendly contract.  These two teams have little history of making trades, but this swap could conceivably fill glaring needs for the other organization.

#2           Nationals send right-handed reliever Rafael Soriano to the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-handed starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy

The Nationals are in need of another established starting pitcher and the Diamondbacks enter this offseason desperately seeking a closer.  Conversely, Washington has depth in the bullpen as Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen are capable of closing and Arizona has an apparent surplus of potential starting pitchers. 

Financially this trade could also possibly work, as Soriano is signed for $11 million in 2014 with a club option for 2015, and McCarthy is scheduled to make $9 million in the final year of his two-year contract.  Although some money (or a minor player) might need to be included to be fiscally viable, this trade is worth exploring as it could quickly fill the biggest weaknesses on each roster this winter.

#3           Washington ships right-handed pitcher Ryan Mattheus and right-handed pitching prospect Aaron Barrett to the Minnesota Twins for outfielder Ryan Doumit

Finally, the Nationals need a veteran bench hitter, preferably someone who bats left-handed, with power and some positional versatility – Ryan Doumit fits this description, as a 32-year-old switch hitter who can play catcher, first base, and both corner outfield positions, though he is considered a poor defensive player. 

In the final year of a 3-year $10.5 million dollar contract, Doumit is scheduled to make $3.5 million in 2014.  Since the Twins are expected to struggle again next season, as they await the maturation of their many high-profile prospects, clearing $3.5 million from their payroll and adding two young pitchers could appeal to the rebuilding Twins.