After many years of speculation, the myth that is Japanese right-handed pitcher Masahiro Tanaka has finally been posted by the Rakuten Eagles of the NPB, and will pitch in the major leagues in 2014.  Tanaka was dominant this past season, going 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA, 183 strikeouts against only 32 walks over 212 innings.  For his 7-year career, Tanaka has a 99-35 record with a 2.30 ERA, an 8.5 K/9 rate, and a 4.5 K/BB ratio over his 1,315 professional innings pitched.  As the rules regarding Japanese players transitioning to the major leagues has changed and now costs a refundable $20 million dollars to negotiate with Tanaka, expect ten or more teams to bid on the services of this 25-year-old pitcher.

With all due respect to Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka, Masahiro Tanaka arrives in America as the most hyped Japanese player in baseball history.  Armed with an impressive four-pitch arsenal consisting of a 90-96mph 4-seam fastball, a 90-92mph sinker, a quick breaking curveball, and a devastating splitter, Tanaka flashes the repertoire to compete in Major League Baseball.  Tanaka possesses excellent control with a career 1.9 BB/9 ratio (1.1, 1.0, 1.4 the past three years), and scouts rate his mechanics as solid or slightly above-average.  Having four quality pitches, a mid-90s fastball, and outstanding command of the strike zone, Tanaka profiles as a strong #3 starting pitcher in the majors with upside to be better with some slight refinement to his mechanics as he matures. 

Tanaka is somewhat less physically imposing than the average starter, as he is listed as a slender 6-1 190lbs, which when combined with heavy pitch counts and 1,315 career innings pitched lends many to fear future injuries.  In addition, while Yu Darvish has had great success in the majors, Tanaka does not possess the pure stuff or sound pitching mechanics that Darvish does, meaning he is unlikely to replicate Darvish’s early career dominance in the United States.  Finally, considering the dearth of pitching in the major leagues and the large number of suitors trying to sign him, the contract Tanaka eventually signs is likely to be so grand it will be nearly impossible for him to live up to the terms of the deal. 

As currently constructed, the Nationals starting rotation is well positioned with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Doug Fister all under contract for at least two more seasons.  Also, the team has sufficient competition for the 5^th starter position with Ross Detwiler, Taylor Jordan, Tanner Roark, and prospects A.J. Cole, Matt Purke, Sammy Solis, and Lucas Giolito developing in the minor leagues.  That said, aside from Giolito, none of the pitchers mentioned above have Tanaka’s potential, and adding him would bolster the Nationals chances of capturing a World Series.

Unfortunately most every team in major league baseball wants to add a young, mid-rotation starter, meaning the bidding for Tanaka’s services should be intense.  In 2007, the Boston Red Sox signed Matsuzaka for 6-years and $52 million, after paying $51 million in a posting fee to his Japanese team.  Early in 2012, the Texas Rangers paid $51.7 million dollars to negotiate with Darvish, and eventually signed him for 6-years and $60 million dollars.  Now that the posting fee has a $20 million maximum, many teams will be enticed to negotiate and Tanaka should benefit from the number of suitors with a much larger contract.  Nevertheless, these contracts, including posting fees, provide us with a baseline of what it will cost to sign Tanaka, approximately 6-years and $100+ million. 

This baseline probably limits his market to the higher payroll teams with aggressive owners, which immediately makes the Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers among the favorites to sign Tanaka.  While further down the list, I would expect the Nationals to be a darkhorse in the negotiations, as Mr. Lerner has deep pockets and the ability to massage Tanaka’s salary into the team’s payroll.  Also, the team has previously expressed an interest in being a “worldwide franchise” and signing Tanaka would immediately make them one of the most popular teams in Japan. 

With those considerations, I would expect the Nationals to be a bidder up to around 6-years and $110 million, essentially the Darvish contract, but will bow out of the competition once it surpasses this figure and turn their attention to signing contract extensions with Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann.  Tanaka should have multiple 6-year offers to choose from, and I predict it will take an organization guaranteeing a seventh year in order to secure his services.

NatsGM Prediction ->          Tanaka signs with the Chicago Cubs, 7-years $143 million

The last day of the Winter Meetings is famous for the annual Rule 5 draft in the morning, followed by a mad dash by executives to the airport to fly home.  After their acquisition of Jerry Blevins on Wednesday, the Washington Nationals 40-man roster is full, meaning the team was ineligible to select a player during the major league portion of Thursday’s Rule 5 draft.  This draft is often overanalyzed by passionate baseball nerds, and while most players selected will be returned to their original team prior to opening day, superstars such as Roberto Clemente, Josh Hamilton, and Johan Santana have been discovered over the years. 

The Chicago White Sox selected Nationals catcher Adrian Nieto with the 2^nd selection in the 1^st round of this year’s draft.  Nieto, the Nationals 5^th round pick in 2008, is a switch-hitter with solid tools but unrefined defensive skills behind the dish, and hit .285/.373/.449 with 11 home runs and 29 doubles at High-A Potomac last year.  One of my favorite sleepers in the Nationals farm system, Nieto will be overwhelmed by major league pitching, but his defensive skills are good enough that he should be able to serve as the White Sox backup catcher in 2014, if they are willing to accept his growing pains.

In the minor league portion of the draft, the Nationals fortunately did not lose another player and selected both outfielder Theodis Bowe from Cincinnati and right-handed pitcher Martires Arias from the Mets.  The 23-year-old Bowe struggled in his first taste of Double-A in 2013, hitting only .206/.260/.307 with 4 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 99 games.  A left-handed hitter who can play all three outfield positions, Bowe should serve as outfield depth for Harrisburg next season.   Arias, also 23-years-old, spent last season pitching in rookie ball and posted a woeful 5.81 ERA with only 36 strikeouts against 28 walks in 52.2 innings pitched.  Listed at 6-7 207lbs., the Nationals scouts must like his raw tools and gambled on a chance to refine his mechanics. 

Other interesting selections in the Rule 5 draft include 3B Michael Almanzar going from Boston to Baltimore, LHP Brian Moran to Anaheim via a trade with Toronto, and Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson being selected by the Texas Rangers.  Almanzar, signed for a $1.5 million dollar bonus out of the Dominican Republic, has struggled to have his raw talent translate to on-field performance.  Almanzar should see plenty of repetitions in spring training as Orioles third baseman Manny Machado recovers from knee surgery, but a career minor league batting line of .250/.302/.373 means he is a poor bet to make the 25-man roster. 

Brian Moran, brother of Marlins’ 2013 1^st round pick Colin Moran, is a left-handed reliever armed with a mediocre mid-80s fastball but has put up excellent career numbers in the Seattle organization, with a 3.06 ERA and 339 strikeouts in 288 innings pitched.  Although he possesses an underwhelming arsenal, scouts expect Moran to continue to succeed against lefties in the majors, and he stands a reasonable chance of earning a spot in Anaheim’s bullpen.

Finally, in an obvious public relations decision, the Rangers selected former North Carolina State infielder and current NFL quarterback Russell Wilson from the Colorado Rockies in the Triple-A portion of the draft.  The Seahawks quarterback was a talented college baseball player and could attend spring training with the team next year, but do not expect Wilson to become a two-sport athlete any time in the future. 

After weeks of speculation, Wednesday afternoon the Washington Nationals acquired a much coveted left-handed reliever in Oakland pitcher Jerry Blevins in exchange for Double-A outfielder Billy Burns.  General manager Mike Rizzo clearly prioritized acquiring an accomplished, left-handed reliever this winter to bolster his heavily right-handed bullpen, but in order to acquire Blevins, the Nationals were forced to part with their minor league Organizational Player of the Year in Burns. 

Jerry Blevins, 30-years-old, spent last season pitching for Oakland with a 5-0 record with a 3.15 ERA, a 1.067 WHIP, 52 strikeouts against 17 walks in 60 innings pitcher.  Blevins has spent his entire 7-year career with the Athletics and has a 3.30 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, and 239 strikeouts in 267 innings pitched.  In particular, Blevins has shown success against left-handed hitters, holding them to a career .224/.278/.358 batting line, although he is more than a lefty specialist, as his career .240/.326/.385 numbers against righties indicates.  Blevins features a four-pitch arsenal consisting of a sinker, a cutter, a curveball and a changeup, though he primarily throws his sinker and cut-fastball.  Under salary control for two more seasons before reaching free agency in 2016, Blevins is expected to make approximately $1.5 million in 2014. 

Billy Burns, 24-years-old, spent 2013 in High-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg, playing primarily left field, along with some center field, and hit .315/.425/.383 across both levels.  A switch-hitter with outstanding speed, Burns is an intriguing offensive player due to his career .421 on-base percentage and 125 steals in 142 attempts.  However, due to his lack of power and fringy throwing arm, scouts are skeptical if Burns is an everyday player and often label him a reserve outfielder.  That said, with strong on-base skills and dynamic speed, Burns has a good chance of reaching the major leagues and could carve out a career as a valuable reserve.  Having only 134 at-bats above A-ball, Burns should start 2014 at the Double-A level for the Athletics. 

This trade, the seventh in the past two years by these two teams, adds additional depth to the Nationals bullpen, and gives Washington a quality lefty to combat the many talented left-handed hitters in the NL East.  Unfortunately losing Burns further depletes an organizational weakness, specifically the lack of outfielders possessing both the aptitude to get on-base and hit left-handed.  Furthermore, as evidenced by the recent multiyear contracts for reserve outfielders such as Rajai Davis and Nate McLouth, quality backups are valuable commodities in this market. 

My main critique with this trade revolves around the fact that so many left-handed relievers remain available in free agency, that the choice to pay a similar pitcher without hurting the farm system would seem a more prudent decision.  Nevertheless Blevins immediately makes the Nationals bullpen better and gives them a dimension they sorely lacked in 2013, a weapon against lefties who also can retire right-handed batters.  While the economist in me would prefer to attempt to take advantage of the saturated left-handed reliever market and wait to sign a remaining free agent in a few weeks, the Nationals did well to resolve their largest current weakness without parting with a significant piece of the future.  In a vacuum, the Nationals made a solid trade to fill a pressing void on the big league roster.

NatsGM Overall Grade                      ->                     B-

After watching the team’s bench unit struggle mightily in 2013, Friday general manager Mike Rizzo took a step to improve this area of the team, signing outfielder Nate McLouth to a 2-year contract worth $10.75 million, with a club option for 2016 at $6.5 million.  A veteran left-handed batter and versatile defender, the 32-year-old McLouth is expected to serve as the team’s 4^th outfielder behind Bryce Harper, Denard Span, and Jayson Werth next season. 

Nate McLouth spent last season playing up I-95 for the Orioles, hitting .258/.329/.399 with 12 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 146 games, while primarily playing left field.  For his 9-year career, McLouth is a .250/.334/.410 hitter with 100 home runs, 129 stolen bases, and a 2008 all-star game appearance.  Particularly intriguing about McLouth is his success against right-handed pitching as a career .260/.345/.441 hitter and his skills on the bases, with an 84.8% conversion rate on his stolen base opportunities.  In addition, McLouth is a versatile defensive outfielder capable of playing all three outfield positions, though he is best suited for left field.  Talented enough to act as a team’s starting outfielder or the strong side of a platoon, McLouth profiles as an ideal backup outfielder.

As fitting with Mike Rizzo’s modus operandi, there were no rumors of interest in McLouth before news of his signing broke, yet the fit for both the player and the team makes so much sense I am surprised we did not hear rumors tying him to Washington.  The Nationals bench was atrocious in 2013, providing the team with approximately negative 4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), and the team desperately needed a left-handed hitting reserve with some power. 

Enter Nate McLouth, a veteran outfielder who will serve as a rather expensive insurance policy for the Nationals the next two seasons backing up the somewhat injury-plagued outfield of Harper, Span, and Werth.  In a perfect world, the starters each play 150+ games in 2014, and McLouth carves out 200 at-bats as their backup and late game pinch hitter.  However, if a lengthy injury occurs to Harper, Span, or Werth, the combination of Scott Hairston and Nate McLouth would form a productive platoon, something the trio of Roger Bernadina, Steve Lombardozzi, and Tyler Moore were unable to do in 2013. 

My only reservation with this signing is the effect paying more than $5 million per season to a reserve has on the National’s payroll, as the team still needs help in the bullpen and on the bench.  In a vacuum, this signing is a slightly expensive, but not an unreasonable contract for a starting-quality outfielder in this market, and fills a pressing need for the Nationals.  If the terms of this deal do not prohibit them from acquiring a left-handed reliever and a backup catcher before opening day, the Nationals were wise to sign McLouth and have appreciably improved their roster for next season.

NatsGM Grade                       ->         B-