One of my favorite articles to write each year is my annual list of the top prospects in the Washington Nationals farm system: in fact, I enjoyed this exercise so much I decided to make it into 2-parts this year.  As a prospect nerd who spends far too many summer nights in minor league ballparks, I feel I have an excellent feel for the prospects currently with the Nationals.

The Nationals farm system was ranked #1 by Baseball America just three years ago.  However, the graduation of Anthony Rendon and Taylor Jordan, along with trades of Nathan Karns, Billy Burns, and Robbie Ray in the past 12 months has depleted much of the talent in the organization.  In general, the Nationals farm system still has impressive depth throughout their top 40 players, although the Top 10 feels somewhat underwhelming. 

In developing this list, I prioritize the prospects’ possible ceiling, their potential defensive positional value, their likelihood to fulfill their potential, and finally how far are they from contributing to the big leagues.  With that in mind, here is Part-1 of the 2014 NatsGM Washington Nationals Top Prospects List, counting down from 30.

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Honorable Mention:      Rafael Bautista OF, Erik Davis RHP, Cody Gunter 3B, Rick Hague INF, Taylor Hill RHP, Neil Holland LHP, Nick Lee LHP, Estarlin Martinez OF, Narciso Mesa OF, Shawn Pleffner 1B, Blake Schwartz RHP, Blake Treinen RHP

30)          Christian Garcia RHP

Blessed with three above-average pitches, including a mid-90s fastball, Garcia comes with extreme risk after undergoing three elbow surgeries in his career.  A true boom-or-bust pitcher, Garcia could never pitch another big league inning, or carve out a solid career as a late-inning reliever.

29)          Paul Demny RHP

Nationals prospect Paul Demny

A big, physical Texan blessed with a heavy mid-90s fastball, Demny has an impact quality arm and could blossom as a reliever.

28)          Anderson Franco 3B

The Nationals gave this 16-year-old Dominican prospect $900,000 to sign last summer, something the organization has shied away from since the Smiley Gonzalez situation a few years ago.  His future potential warrants a spot on this list, even if he may not see action in the States for a few years.

27)          Pedro Encarnacion LHP

An overlooked left-handed arm, Encarnacion impressed me last season at Low-A Hagerstown, and is a name to remember in the Nationals’ system.

26)          Nic Pivetta RHP

The Nationals 4^th round pick in 2013, Pivetta is a massive 6-5 220lbs pitcher blessed with a mid-90s fastball, and with intriguing secondary offerings in his slider and changeup.  Pivetta is quite raw, but the physical tools are there for him to develop into a major league pitcher.

25)          Richie Mirowski RHP

A 45^th round pick of the Nationals in 2010, Mirowski has slowly climbed the organizational ladder thanks to a career 10.2 K/9 ratio and a promising curveball.  His career path should lead him to be a middle reliever, which is a testament to the Nationals scouting and development people who have developed this late round pick into a potential contributor.

24)          Jason Martinson SS

Jason Martinson May 2013

Martinson is an outstanding athlete with excellent power for a middle infielder, but his swing-and-miss tendencies and advancing age, he’s 25-years-old, keeps much of the shine off of this prospect.  However, the talent is legitimate and his ceiling places him on this list.

23)          Robert Benincasa RHP

A personal favorite of mine, Benincasa is a pure reliever with three quality pitches, a low-90s sinking fastball, a slider, and a changeup.  Benincasa has posted career 11.62 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 ratios, which portends a future a quality right-handed setup man. 

22)          Brandon Miller OF

Sleeper Alert!  One of my favorite prospects in the system, this 2012 4^th round pick has impressive speed and raw power, along with a cannon-like arm.  The swing-and-miss is real, but Miller could be the next in a long line of late developing corner outfielders for the Nationals.

21)          Jeff Kobernus 2B/OF

Kobernus is one of the better athletes in the farm system capable of playing multiple positions defensively.  While he may not live up to the expectations of a 2^nd round draft pick, Kobernus’s speed and versatility should allow him to have a successful big league career as a reserve.

20)          Brett Mooneyham LHP

LHP Brett Mooneyham

A late-blooming left-handed pitcher from Stanford University, Mooneyham has a good three-pitch mix with a low-90s fastball, an inconsistent slider, and an average changeup.  A solid athlete blessed with a quiet motion, Mooneyham still has the talent to blossom into a major league quality lefty.

19)          Aaron Barrett RHP

Added to the Nationals 40-man roster last fall, this former 9^th round pick possesses a quality low-90s fastball and an above-average to plus slider.  Barrett has a chance to be an effective middle reliever, perhaps as soon as late 2014. 

18)          Eury Perez CF

His lack of power and on-base skills limits his ceiling, but Perez’s elite speed, bat-to-ball skills, and outstanding defense in center field should allow him to carve out a career as a reserve outfielder.

17)          Tony Renda 2B

Tony Renda

This former 2^nd round selection, Renda’s only above-average tool is his hitting ability, but his excellent ability to hit a baseball should allow him to hit his way to the major leagues.

16)          Drew Vettleson OF

Coming off a down season in High-A in 2013, Vettleson looks to rebound with a change of scenery after being acquired from Tampa Bay in the recent Nathan Karns trade.  An excellent defensive right fielder with a strong throwing arm, Vettleson has a chance to become an above-average 4^th outfielder in a few years. 

15)          Drew Ward 3B

The Nationals 3^rd round pick last summer, Ward skipped his senior year of high school to enroll in the draft a year earlier.  Questions exist about his defensive profile, but Ward has a strong arm and excellent raw power and could be in store for a breakout season a Low-A Hagerstown in 2014.

14)          Zach Walters SS/3B

A terrific athlete capable of playing multiple positions defensively, Walters is a switch-hitter with excellent power, slugging 29 home runs in 2013.  Acquired from Arizona in exchange for Jason Marquis, Walters has a chance to carve out a career as a valuable, super-utility player. 

13)          Austin Voth RHP

The Nationals 5^th round selection last June, Voth has an intriguing three-pitch mix and could move quickly through the minors with a shift to the bullpen.  Voth is a sleeper to remember from the 2013 draft class.

12)          Felipe Rivero LHP

A smallish lefty with three quality pitches, Rivero has a future in the big leagues, either as a back-end starter or quality reliever.

11)          Jefry Rodriguez RHP

The top prospect from the Nationals ultra-successful GCL team in 2013, Rodriguez features a prototypical pitchers’ body and a mid-90s fastball.  Perhaps he already warrants a spot in the Top-10, but expect Rodriguez to skyrocket up this list after his debut in Hagerstown this season.

I urge you to return tomorrow, February 2oth, when I publish Part-2 and count down the current Top 10 Nationals prospects.  Thanks for reading.

Early Thursday morning amidst the tremendous snowfall in the DC area, the Washington Nationals traded right-handed pitcher Nathan Karns to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for catcher Jose Lobaton, left-handed pitching prospect Felipe Rivero, and outfield prospect Drew Vettleson.  The 29-year-old Lobaton is out of minor league options and was third on Tampa’s depth chart, but immediately finds himself as the backup catcher behind Wilson Ramos in Washington. 

Lobaton played in 100 games for Tampa Bay last season, hitting .249/.320/.394 with 7 home runs and 15 doubles in 277 at-bats and has a .228/.311/.343 batting line during his 4-year major league career.  In his ten seasons in the minor leagues, the switch-hitting Lobaton flashed some skills with the bat, posting a 256/.346/.406 batting line with 53 home runs.  Defensively Lobaton profiles as about average, as he features an above-average arm, good pitch framing skills, and mediocre pitch blocking skills, along with a career 16% caught stealing ratio (29% in the minors).  As a super-two arbitration player, Lobaton will make $950,000 this season, and will be under Nationals’ team control through 2017. 

In addition to Lobaton, the Nationals also received prospects Felipe Rivero and Drew Vettleson.  The 22-year-old Rivero, spent last season pitching in High-A, posting a 9-7 record with a 3.40 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts against 52 walks in 127 innings pitched.  An undersized pitcher listed at 6-0 160lbs, Rivero possesses an impressive 91-94mph fastball, an above-average curveball with potential, and a developing changeup.  Ranked as Tampa’s #17 prospect by Baseball America, Rivero has a solid three-pitch mix with questions about his durability (due to his size) and his below-average command.  If he can improve his control, his ceiling is that of a #4/#5 starting pitcher, while his most realistic role is as a quality left-handed relief pitcher. 

Vettleson, also 22-years-old, was a supplemental 1^st round selection, 42^nd overall, for Tampa Bay back in 2010.  Unfortunately Vettleson failed to build off his excellent 2012 season (.772 OPS, 15 home runs, 20 SBs) as he was only able to post a .274/.331/.388 batting line with 4 home runs, 29 doubles and 5 steals in 121 games at High-A in 2013.  A lean 6-1 185lbs, Vettleson owns a short, compact swing with good bat speed, an above-average to plus throwing arm and average speed.  Vettleson profiles as a strong defensive right fielder who should hit for average and steal some bases; if he develops game power as he matures physically, he could reach his ceiling as an average starting corner outfielder. 

In return for these three players, the Nationals parted with their 2012 Minor League Pitcher of the Year Nathan Karns, who followed up his outstanding 2012 season with another excellent season in 2013, pitching 132.2 innings in Double-A Harrisburg and providing them with a 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts.  His brief 12 inning cameo appearance in Washington was not particularly successful, but Karns is a thickly built 6-3 225lbs Texan armed with a powerful 91-96mph fastball, a plus swing-and-miss curveball, and a below-average changeup.  Because of his past shoulder issues and his underwhelming changeup, most scouts tend to believe Karns future is in relief, where his plus fastball and curveball could make him a devastating late-inning reliever.

After many months of speculation, on the day pitchers and catchers reported to spring training, Mike Rizzo decided to shore up the biggest weakness on the roster, and likely the last item on his offseason agenda, by acquiring a quality backup catcher for Wilson Ramos.  Because of Ramos’ past injury issues and the poor offensive skills of Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano, the Nationals were smart to find a solid backup catcher capable of playing every day.  While his defense may not compare favorably to Leon or Solano, Lobaton’s power and switch-hitting ability make him an upgrade for the Nationals.

To make this improvement to the roster, the Nationals were forced to part with my #4 ranked prospect in their farm system, Karns, who I believe has a chance to be an impact late-inning reliever.  The addition of intriguing prospects Romero and Vettleson makes this a good trade in a vacuum for each team, as the Nationals fill a hole at catcher, and gather addition prospect depth while Tampa adds another near major league ready pitcher.

However, I am hesitant to fully endorse this deal, as I think the Nationals could have signed one of many comparable, free agent backup catchers available this offseason, namely J.P. Arencibia, John Buck, or Geovany Soto, without having to part with Karns.  Lobaton is arguably a better option for the franchise than those mentioned above, but I fear the Nationals will regret not having a power reliever like Karns available midseason to bolster their relief corps.  While this is not a poor trade by any means, this is one of the first deals in recent memory I do not fully support.

NatsGM Grade                       ->         C

In an effort to bolster their bullpen depth, Friday the Washington Nationals signed veteran right-handed reliever Luis Ayala to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.  Ayala, an original member of the inaugural 2005 Nationals team that brought baseball back to Washington, spent last season pitching for Baltimore and Atlanta, combining to post a 3.27 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 33 innings pitched.  For his 9-year career, the 36-year-old Ayala has a 3.34 ERA, a 1.299 WHIP, and 367 strikeouts over 554.1 innings pitched. 

Ayala is primarily a two-pitch reliever at this point in his career, featuring an 89-91mph sinker and a hard, 85mph slider, and will flash the occasional changeup, curveball, and four-seam fastball.  A proven middle reliever who limits walks (only 2.26 BB/9) and home runs (0.88 HR/9), Ayala will compete for one of the final spots in the Nationals’ 2014 bullpen. 

With Rafael Soriano, Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, Craig Stammen, and Jerry Blevins seemingly guaranteed spots in the bullpen, and Ross Ohlendorf, Christian Garcia, Aaron Barrett, Erik Davis, Xavier Cedeno, Ryan Mattheus, Tanner Roark, along with Ayala, competing in spring training for only two possible spots, the Nationals have quickly built some considerable bullpen depth as they enter the 2014 season.  That said Ayala is a veteran reliever capable of pitching multiple innings and could provide the Nationals’ relief corps with a dimension they currently lack.  His versatility and experience give him an excellent chance of pitching for Washington this season, and makes Ayala one of the better minor league signings this winter.  General manager Mike Rizzo should be credited for continuing to acquire quality depth for the Nationals late in the offseason.  This signing is like free beer – it’s difficult not to like.