It is official – major league baseball front offices have become significantly more prudent in signing free agents in recent years.  As teams have begun locking up their core young players to lengthy extensions and front offices have become more sensible about signing good, but not elite, players to outrageous free agent contracts, organizations have started viewing the trade market as a strong alternative to fill holes on their rosters. 

Although teams are extremely hesitant to part with their prospects, especially young pitching, this winter we saw an increase in old-fashioned, player-for-player, baseball trades.  Snow still covers the ground in the northeast, but since we are rapidly approaching Opening Day, I figured this would be an appropriate time to announce my choices for the Best and Worst Trades made this offseason.

BEST

Honorable Mention:       Chicago White Sox receive 3B Matt Davidson from Arizona for RHP Addison Reed, Baltimore Orioles acquire OF David Lough from Kansas City for INF Danny Valencia, Chicago Cubs receive OF Justin Ruggiano from Miami for OF Brian Bugosevic, Houston Astros acquire OF Dexter Fowler from Colorado for RHP Jordan Lyles and OF Brandon Barnes, and Oakland Athletics receive RHP Luke Gregerson from San Diego for OF Seth Smith

3)            Kansas City acquires OF Norichika Aoki from Milwaukee for LHP Will Smith

Kansas City has excellent depth in the bullpen (and has a knack for developing relievers) and took advantage of a breakout season from Smith in relief last season to fill a major need in the outfield. Aoki should play every day in right field and bat atop the lineup, serving as an excellent table setter for the middle of the potentially potent Royals lineup. 

2)            Chicago White Sox receives CF Adam Eaton from Arizona in exchange for OF Brandon Jacobs and LHP Hector Santiago

One of my favorite trades in recent years, the White Sox parted with a quality depth arm in Santiago, and a 4^th outfielder in Jacobs to acquire their likely starting center fielder for the rest of the decade.  Eaton, a dynamic defensive outfielder, has good speed and excellent on-base skills, but failed to impress the Diamondbacks in 66 games last season.  In a change of scenery, I think Eaton has a chance to flourish into an average or slightly better starting center fielder for the White Sox.  As Macklemore would say, “One man’s trash is another man’s come-up”! 

1)            The Washington Nationals acquire RHP Doug Fister from Detroit for Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol, and Robbie Ray

This trade has been analyzed endlessly both here at NatsGM and elsewhere on the internet, but it is difficult to find fault in the Nationals taking spare parts in Lombardozzi and Krol, along with their 4^th best pitching prospect, to find their #4 starter and fill their biggest offseason need.  Ray is a quality prospect who should have a nice major league career, but Fister is one of the more underrated players in baseball and makes this deal an absolute steal for Washington.  

WORST

Honorable Mention:       Oakland Athletics receive RHP Jim Johnson from Baltimore for 2B Jemile Weeks and David Freitas, San Diego Padres acquire OF Seth Smith from Oakland for RHP Luke Gregerson, Kansas City Royals trade OF David Lough to Baltimore for 3B Danny Valencia, Texas Rangers receive 1B Prince Fielder + $30 million from Detroit in exchange for 2B Ian Kinsler, and Texas Rangers trade OF Craig Gentry and RHP Josh Lindblom to Oakland for OF Michael Choice and 2B Chris Bostick

3)            Colorado Rockies receive OF Brandon Barnes and RHP Jordan Lyles from Houston in exchange for OF Dexter Fowler

Fowler has underachieved relative to his talent thus far in his career, but Colorado made a mistake parting with this talented center fielder for this package, in order to find room for both Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau in their lineup.  Lyles is a reasonable #5 starter and Barnes is a quality #4 outfielder, but these pieces do not have the type of ceiling that should be acquired in exchange for Fowler at this stage in Colorado’s rebuilding effort.  To trade Fowler, Colorado should have looked for prospects to pair with pitchers Eddie Butler and Jon Gray. 

2)            Detroit Tigers acquire LHP Robbie Ray, LHP Ian Krol, and INF Steve Lombardozzi from Washington for RHP Doug Fister

I understand Detroit wanted to clear salary this winter and make room for LHP Drew Smyly in the rotation, so trading Fister is understandable and Robbie Ray is one of the best pitching prospects traded this winter.  My major complaint with this trade is the Krol and Lombardozzi parts, as Detroit should have insisted on prospects or more valuable depth players to enhance the quality of their return.  For this reason, I believe this is one of the worst trades this winter.

1)            Milwaukee Brewers trade OF Norichika Aoki to Kansas City for LHP Will Smith

Smith is a fine pitcher who took to being a reliever last season after serving as a starter most of his career, and is under contract for many years.  However, Aoki is a solid 2+ win player signed for less than $2 million in 2014, quite a valuable commodity in this environment.  Considering the dearth of minor league talent in the Brewers’ system currently, they would have been wise to look a bit longer-term and acquire a prospect or two in return for Aoki, rather than a solid 7^th inning reliever.

Now that the calendar officially says March and spring training games are in full swing, I thought this would be an appropriate time to reflect on this past offseason and analyze the best and worst free agent signings of the winter.  As we have seen in recent years, teams are wisely more reluctant to spend extravagant money on good but not elite players, making it more challenging to find obvious poor decisions. 

That said, the 2014 Hot Stove season will be remembered for the massive contracts awarded to Robinson Cano, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jacoby Ellsbury, along with international free agents Jose Daniel Abreu and Masahiro Tanaka, not to mention the curious signings of Nelson Cruz and Jhonny Peralta.  With just a few players still available, most notably Type-A free agents Stephen Drew, Kendrys Morales, and Ervin Santana, these are my choices for the Best and Worst Free Agent Signings of this past offseason.

BEST

Honorable Mention:       Jose Daniel Abreu signs with Chicago White Sox 6-years $68 million, John Axford signs with Cleveland 1-year $4.5 million, Tim Hudson signs with San Francisco 2-years $23 million, Brian McCann signs with New York Yankees 5-years $85 million, Edward Mujica signs with Boston Red Sox 2-years $9.5 million

3)            Nelson Cruz signs with Baltimore, 1-year $8 million.

Sure the forfeiture of their 2^nd round pick stings, but a motivated Nelson Cruz batting behind Chris Davis and Manny Machado could post massive offensive numbers in Camden Yards in 2014.  The Orioles plan to use him as their designated hitter, eliminating his negative impact defensively, making him even more valuable overall.  In a market where Marlon Byrd can sign for 2-yrs $16 million, and David Murphy for 2-yrs $12 million, Cruz appears to be a fantastic value for Baltimore.

2)            Paul Maholm signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers, 1-year $1.5 million.

Maholm is not an elite pitcher, but he is an effective starter who has pitched 150+ innings 8 years in a row and 162+ innings the 7 seasons prior to 2013, with a career 4.28 ERA and 4.18 FIP.  A consistent back-end starting pitcher, Maholm is a bargain signing in a market where comparable or lesser pitchers such as Edinson Volquez (1-yr $5million), Mike Pelfrey (2-yrs $11million), and Jason Vargas (4-yrs $32 million) signed for significantly greater money. 

1)            Jarrod Saltalamacchia signs with Miami, 3-years $21 million.

An underrated catcher with above-average skills both offensively and defensively, Saltalamacchia has produced 7+ wins in the past three seasons, has improved each year, and is signed for his age 29-31 seasons like a 1+ win player annually.  When comparing this contract to Carlos Ruiz (3yrs $26million) or even Brian McCann (5yrs $85million), Saltalamacchia looks like a rare bargain free agent signing.

WORST

Honorable Mention:       A.J. Burnett signs with Philadelphia 1-year $16 million, Mike Pelfrey signs with Minnesota, 2-years $11 million, Juan Uribe signs with Los Angeles 2-years $15 million, Edinson Volquez signs with Pittsburgh 1-year $5 million, Brian Wilson signs with Los Angeles Dodgers 1-year $10 million,

3)            Robinson Cano signs with Seattle, 10-years $240 million

Cano is an outstanding player who should have numerous All-Star level seasons remaining, but the track record thus far of 8-year or longer contracts is generally awful.  In addition, Seattle failed to pair another superstar or two with Cano this offseason, only signing Corey Hart and trading for Logan Morrison, which makes this a rather puzzling, and questionable, move. 

2)            Boone Logan signs with Colorado, 3-years $16.5 million

Logan is a quality reliever, and especially proficient against left-handed hitters with a career .243/.312/.378 line, but for a rebuilding team such as the Rockies to guarantee a specialist 3-years and $5+ million per year is difficult to rationalize.  Furthermore, when similar lefty relievers like Scott Downs (1-year $4 million), J.P. Howell (2-years $11 million, Oliver Perez (Unsigned), and Matt Thornton (2-years $7 million) signed for far less this winter, this contract looks like a poor allocation of resources and a severe overpay. 

1)            Jason Vargas signs with Kansas City, 4-years $32 million

The annual salary is not particularly awful, but making a four year commitment to a very average 31-year-old starting pitcher when so many other, cheaper options were available this winter like Roberto Hernandez (1-year $4.5 million), Paul Maholm (1-year $1.5 million), or Joe Saunders (Unsigned) makes this signing difficult to explain.  In an offseason filled with a healthy amount of discretion used by major league front offices, this Vargas contract is easily the worst free agent signing this winter.