After enjoying a fairy-tale like season in 2012, much like the band A-Ha, the 2013 Washington Nationals fell victim to their newfound expectations and failed to reach the playoffs for the second consecutive season. Nevertheless, baseball fans in the DMV area are anxious for the beginning of baseball season and the potential to again reach the postseason this fall.

Blessed with a breakout season in 2012 when the team won 98 games en route to their first NL East division championship, fans of NatsTown entered last season overconfident like Mike Tyson against Buster Douglas. Unfortunately the Nationals contracted a tough case of “worst case scenario” disease in 2013 and slumped to a disappointing 86-76 finish, 10 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the division. Manager Davey Johnson retired following the season, and the Nationals quickly snared his replacement, former Arizona third base coach Matt Williams.

The Nationals’ vacancy was particularly appealing because Washington has built their franchise to be competitive for many years. Washington returns their three aces, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann to headline a potentially dominant starting rotation. At times in 2013 the team struggled offensively, however the Nationals are expecting better results in 2014. They anticipate improved seasons from veterans Adam LaRoche and Denard Span, along with the emergence of talented youngsters Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon. Coupled with All-Stars Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth, this lineup has breakout potential in 2014.

In order to close the gap on their division rivals, this winter the Nationals’ front office had four specific needs to fill: a fourth starter, a versatile reserve outfielder, a left-handed reliever, and a backup catcher. Quickly Mike Rizzo went to work crossing off these needs, trading three players to Detroit to acquire Doug Fister, one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, and stealing outfielder Nate McLouth from Baltimore with a 2-year contract. In addition, the Nationals traded for Oakland lefty Jerry Blevins and obtained Tampa Bay playoff hero, catcher Jose Lobaton.

With these additions, the Nationals roster looks solid on paper, as the team has an excellent starting rotation, a quality, deep bullpen, and a potentially powerful lineup. However, questions still exist with the back of the rotation, as Fister will begin the season on the disabled list, Ross Detwiler will begin the season in the bullpen, and Taylor Jordan and Tanner Roark remain unproven. Also, how will Williams, a rookie manager, handle the pressure of leading a team with tremendous expectations? The answers to these questions, the ability for the starting lineup to create runs, and the health of the team will determine how long into September (and October) the 2014 Nationals play baseball.

 
Predicted Record: Washington Nationals 89-73, 1st Place in NL East

MY Bold Nationals Predictions:
1) Doug Fister makes less than 15 starts for the Nationals in 2014.

2) Wilson Ramos represents the Nationals in the All-Star game in Minnesota this summer.

3) Taylor Jordan pitches 170+ innings for the Nationals at the back of their rotation with a sub-4 ERA, giving the team a durable workhorse to go with Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Zimmermann.

4) Ryan Zimmerman bounces back defensively from his subpar 2013 season to capture the Gold Glove award at third base in the NL.

Predictions Around MLB

AL East: Tampa Bay 91-71
AL Central: Detroit Tigers 90-72
AL West: Oakland Athletics 91-71
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NL East: Washington Nationals 89-73
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals 93-69
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers 90-72
NL Wild Cards: San Francisco Giants 88-74, Atlanta Braves 87-75

AL MVP: Mike Trout OF Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
AL ROY: Nick Castellanos 3B/LF Detroit Tigers
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander SP Detroit Tigers

NL MVP: Bryce Harper OF Washington Nationals
NL ROY: Billy Hamilton OF Cincinnati Reds
NL Cy Young: Jose Fernandez SP Miami Marlins

 
5 Bold Predictions for the 2014 MLB Season

1) The Baltimore Orioles capitalize on improved starting pitching and a breakout season from Kevin Gausman to make the playoffs with 87 wins.

2) Billy Hamilton will steal 91 bases this season en route to capturing the NL Rookie of the Year Award.

3) Two Tampa Bay starting pitchers make the All-Star game in July, and neither will be David Price, it will be Alex Cobb and Chris Archer representing the Rays.

4) Yordano Ventura takes the American League Central by storm, striking out 175+ batters and leading Kansas City to a near playoff appearance with 86 victories.

5) The New York Yankees suffer from injuries and mediocre starting pitching to finish with an 81-81 record and a 4th place finish in the AL East.

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After spending the past two days examining hitters and pitchers that should be targeted, and avoided, in drafts this year, today we shift the focus to players being selected later in drafts, also commonly referred to as Sleepers.  With the amount of information about fantasy baseball on the internet, it is difficult to find a true sleeper these days, as players are rarely overlooked in drafts.

The term “sleeper” has evolved over the years and has different meanings to various fantasy players.  While many consider someone who outplays his average draft position to be a sleeper, for me this fails to capture the concept – a late round pick who will be the difference between a middle-of-the-pack finish and winning a championship.  For the purposes of this piece, I have identified sleepers as a player being drafted, on average, outside of the Top 200 picks, who should return excellent value this season.

Ubaldo Jimenez                               Baltimore Orioles RHP

More inconsistent than the DC weather this winter, Jimenez has his flaws, most notably inconsistent pitching mechanics that lead to difficulties throwing strikes.  Nevertheless, Jimenez posted 100 in his last 81 innings pitched last season, and provided Cleveland with a 3.30 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 182.2 innings in 2013.  It is nearly impossible to find a pitcher with 200 strikeout potential and his potential is far too enticing for me to ignore late in drafts.

Howie Kendrick                                Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 2B

Kendrick’s not sexy like Kate Upton, but he is still only 30-years-old and has a .292/.322/.429 career batting line.  The Angels’ offense should improve this season with healthy seasons from Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, along with the acquisition of David Freese, and Kendrick could benefit from the rejuvenated lineup.  If you happen to miss out on second base early, or are looking for a middle infielder in the later rounds, you could do much worse than Kendrick, who should bat .290 with 10-15 home runs and 10-15 steals in 2014.

Colby Rasmus                   Toronto Blue Jays OF

Rasmus has been on the radar of prospect nerds for many years, but he is only 28-years-old and coming off a .276/24/66 2013 season.  A free agent at the end of the season, I will be gambling on Rasmus having a breakout season en route to signing a ridiculous free agent contract next winter. 

Anthony Rendon              Washington Nationals 2B/3B

I will understandably receive the “Homer” catcalls on this selection, but his keen batting eye, exceptional bat speed, and potential to bolster your team’s batting average makes him an interesting gamble late in drafts.  Eligible at second and third base, two relatively weak fantasy positions, draft Rendon with confidence and hope his home run power emerges in 2014.

Nick Swisher                      Cleveland Indians 1B/OF

Did you miss out on power early in the draft in favor of pitching?  Well let me introduce you Nick Swisher, who has 9 consecutive 20+ home run seasons and is going after Round 16.  He does not have the highest ceiling, but Swisher is a consistent player with some HR and RBI upside being overlooked in drafts.

Yordano Ventura             Kansas City Royals RHP

This choice would have looked better a week ago before the Royals formally announced Ventura would start the season in their rotation.  But I am the guy who took Jose Fernandez in the final round last season, and I will go back to the well this year with Ventura, a smallish pitcher with a monster fastball, solid offspeed pitches, and a potentially strong defensive team behind him.  He is surely climbing draft boards ahead of the season, but Ventura is one of the better late round gambles I can remember in recent years. 

On a related note, did you know Aloe Blacc wrote the song “I’m the Man” about Yordano Ventura?