After a week filled with rumors, Wednesday afternoon the Washington Nationals acquired OF Adam Eaton from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for right-handed pitching prospects Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning.  This trade immediately makes Eaton Washington’s centerfielder next season and shifts Trea Turner back to his natural shortstop position.

The 28-year-old Eaton was outstanding for Chicago in 2016, batting .284/.362/.428 with 14 home runs, 52 extra base hits and 14 stolen bases in 19 attempts in 157 games played.  Originally drafted by Arizona in 2010, Eaton was traded to the White Sox as part of a 3-team deal with the Diamondbacks and Angels in December 2013.  Over his three seasons in Chicago, Eaton provided the White Sox with a .290/.362/.422 batting line with 29 home runs and 47 stolen bases.  During his 5-year major league career, Eaton has a .284/.357/.414 batting line with 34 home runs and 54 stolen bases in 521 total games.

Defensively Eaton has above-average but not elite speed and a strong arm, making him profile well in the corners and fringe-average in center field.  He played the majority of last season in right field, but is expected to shift back to center field in Washington.  Eaton will make $4 million next season and is under contract through 2021, making $6 million in 2018, $8.4 million in 2019 and team options at $9.5 million for 2020 and $10.5 million for 2021.

In order to secure Eaton and team-friendly contract from Chicago, Washington was forced to part with three of their top-5 pitching prospects and top-7 prospects overall in Giolito, Lopez and Dunning.

Lucas Giolito was Washington’s 1^st round selection, 16^th overall, in the 2012 Draft and agreed to an over-slot bonus of $2.925 million mere moments before the signing deadline.  Almost immediately after signing, Giolito underwent Tommy John surgery, effectively costing him the 2012 and 2013 seasons.  Once returning to the mound, Giolito has steadily climbed the minor league ladder before receiving a 21.1 inning cameo in Washington late this season.

Giolito possesses an intriguing 3-pitch arsenal, consisting of a low-to-mid 90s fastball with good downward plane, a devastating low-80s curveball with excellent vertical drop and a low-80s changeup with promising sinking movement.  Listed at 6-6 255lbs, Giolito is a large man with long limbs that he uses to get good extension toward the batter.  However, his size works against his ability to repeat his delivery and causes him to struggle with his command and control of the strike zone.

Although he reached the majors in 2016, Giolito’s struggles against big league hitters proved he is still quite raw and needs additional development.  However, the 22-year-old has elite talent and the potential for three above-average pitches inside an ideal pitcher’s frame.  If he can learn to repeat his delivery and improve his command, Giolito still has the potential to be a #2 starter in the majors.  Unfortunately he seemed to regress in 2016 and figures to develop more likely into a #3 or #4 starter.

Signed for $12,000 in June 2012 as an international free agent, Reynaldo Lopez has gone from an unknown to one of the top pitching prospects in baseball in four years.  The nearly 23-year-old Lopez does not possess the prototypical pitcher’s body, standing only 6-0 185lbs, although he does have muscular legs and a well-developed upper body.  His delivery has some excess movement and he throws off a stiff front leg, but his impressive athleticism allows him to repeat his simple delivery fairly well.  Although the superficial statistics look just mediocre, Lopez was impressive in his 44 inning cameo with Washington last season, striking out 41 hitters against 47 hits and 24 walks allowed.  Lopez still struggles with his command of the strike zone, but has made solid improvement in this area in the past 12 months.
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Lopez has a powerful 3-pitch repertoire, featuring a 95-98mph fastball, touching 100mph, with late life and some sink.  In addition, Lopez possesses an inconsistent but promising upper-70s curveball with sharp downward movement and a low-80s changeup he throws with good deception and arm speed.  His off-speed offerings lag behind his monster fastball, but both pitches have improved as he has climbed the organizational ladder.  His detractors are skeptical about his size and off-speed pitches, leading them to label him a future reliever.  However, his elite arm speed, excellent athleticism and development on the mound give him a chance to profile as a mid-rotation starter if he continues to improve.  While he has flaws, Lopez is a special arm and was the best pitching prospect in the organization prior to the trade.

Washington’s second 1^st round pick (29^th overall) last June, Dane Dunning spent most of his collegiate career at Florida as a midweek starter and multi-inning reliever on the weekends.  A lean 6-3 205lbs, Dunning possesses a solid 3-pitch repertoire, featuring a low-90s fastball with outstanding sink, an 82-84mph slider with good depth and range, along with the occasional fringy changeup.  He showed better command out of the bullpen in college, although he will be developed as a starter as a professional.  The 21-year-old Dunning shows a potential long-term “60/65” fastball due to the impressive velocity and movement, a “55” slider and possible “45” changeup – this arsenal, along with a clean delivery and solid command, allows him to profile as a future back-end starter or impact 7^th or 8^th inning reliever.

In a vacuum, I believe Washington did significantly better in this trade than the general consensus around baseball, who have widely questioned and panned the trade.  Washington traded three of its top five pitching prospects, which hurts the depth of the minor league system.  But, in addition to the obvious risks associated with prospects, especially pitching prospects, each of Giolito, Lopez and Dunning have major risks associated with them.

Giolito has already undergone Tommy John surgery, does not possess ideal mechanics and looked poor in his brief time in Washington.  Lopez does not have the ideal pitcher’s body and most undersized right-handed pitchers eventually end up pitching in relief.  Finally, Dunning does not have a monster ceiling typically associated with a 1^st round pick and many scouts predict he is a reliever long-term.  Certainly this highlights the negatives with each pitcher, but it should remind us none of these three are a slam-dunks to be impact players.  That said I would be surprised if all three did not have productive careers.

On the other hand, for all the risks associated with the prospects traded away, Adam Eaton is quietly one of the most consistent and better outfielders in baseball.  He does not do anything spectacularly well besides his corner outfield defense, but Eaton is one of the few five tools players in the majors and is above-average offensively, defensively and on the bases.  Eaton has strong bat-to-ball skills, sneaky power especially to the pull side and has a knack for getting on-base.  He should slot in perfectly as Washington’s leadoff or #2 hitter with Turner, and they should drive opposing pitchers crazy in front of Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon.

Defensively Eaton will immediately move back to center field between Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper next season, with the likely plan to shift him to a corner when Werth’s contract is over and center field prospect Victor Robles is major league ready.  His skills, in addition to his extraordinarily team-friendly contract, make Eaton one of the more valuable players in baseball.  In short, Eaton is a perfect fit for the Washington Nationals.

However, I must briefly digress and take a bigger picture view of this trade.  Although Eaton is a tremendous addition, there was a large supply of talented and potentially available center fielders this winter, several of whom would not have been so “expensive” to acquire.  For example, free agent Dexter Fowler is still available, not to mention possible trade targets such as Andrew McCutchen, Ender Inciarte and Jarred Dyson.  So we must ask not just was this a good deal, but also was it the smartest decision overall for the franchise.  Personally, I would have preferred paying Fowler or Ian Desmond, losing my 1^st round pick in 2017 but keeping these three young arms in the organization.  This fact cannot be overlooked when judging the trade as a whole.

Overall I think Washington did fairly well in this deal, as they acquired an underrated player perfect for their team on a great contract for the next five years.  Washington had to part with three talented, high ceiling prospects in order to do so, but general manager Mike Rizzo decided to part with these somewhat risky assets for a proven commodity.  An analogy would be he sold three high-risk high-reward technology stocks to buy shares of a company like IBM.  So while I can understand and appreciate that decision, I would have preferred Washington invest in another asset, also known as Dexter Fowler.  Therefore, while I am extremely excited to watch Adam Eaton daily for the next five years, I would have passed on this offer and looked for another alternative to fill the vacancy in center field.

NatsGM Grade  ->           C- / D+

In the midst of rumors surrounding Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen, Friday the Washington Nationals struck a deal with San Diego, receiving catcher Derek Norris from the Padres for prospect Pedro Avila.  This trade brings the former Nationals’ prospect back to Washington and could potentially spell the end of Wilson Ramos’s time with the team.

The 27-year-old Norris suffered through a woeful 2016, hitting only .186/.255/.328 with 14 home runs and 42 runs driven in over 125 games played.  However, prior to last season, Norris had produced three consecutive quality seasons, including an all-star selection in 2014.  For his 5-year major league career, Norris possesses a .231/.309/.380 batting line with 54 home runs in 557 major league games.

Defensively Norris has the reputation as just a mediocre catcher, although the metrics seem to regard him more positively.  His pitch framing numbers according to Baseball Prospectus are some of the best in baseball and his career 26% caught stealing percentage is in line with the 27% major league average.  He does not have a particularly strong arm or look like a magician behind the dish, but Norris is an average to slightly above-average overall defender.

Washington’s 4^th round pick in 2007, Norris was a key part of the Gio Gonzalez trade with Oakland several years ago and this deal returns him to his first professional organization.  Norris will enter arbitration for the 2^nd time this winter and is projected to earn approximately $4 million.  He is under contract through 2018 and represents an intriguing gamble in this winter’s rather lackluster catching market.

In return for Norris, Washington was forced to part with right-handed pitching prospect Pedro Avila, a 19-year-old who spent 2016 in Low-A.  Signed as an international free agent in July 2014, Avila threw 93 innings last season for Hagerstown, posting a 3.48 ERA with 93 strikeouts against 86 hits and 38 walks allowed.  He is somewhat undersized at his listed 5-11 170lbs, but possesses a solid frame and a fast arm.

Avila has a quality 3-pitch repertoire, featuring a quality low-90s fastball that I have seen touch 94mph, along with a solid mid-70s curveball and a developing changeup.  Like most teenagers his command and control need work, but Avila has a potential “55/60” Fastball, “50” Curveball and “40/45” Changeup in the future, giving him a profile of a back-end starter or middle reliever.  He does not have a major ceiling, but this is a quality arm with major league potential.

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As I discussed in my Offseason Manifesto several weeks ago, I felt like Derek Norris was the best fit to fill Washington’s hole at catcher this winter in terms of skill-level, salary and cost to acquire.  Certainly Norris comes with his warts or else a 27-year-old catcher under contract for two years would not be available for a low-A pitcher.  He is coming off a poor year in 2016, is not an elite defender and projects to make nearly $4 million next season.

That said if we can somehow ignore his 2016 statistics or chalk it up to injuries, Norris has the potential to rebound with a change of scenery in Washington.  Defensively Norris has developed into a fantastic pitch-framer, which when coupled with his average ability to throw out runners and impressive athleticism, makes him a far better defender than his reputation.

At the plate, Norris hit 14 home runs each of the last two seasons in cavernous San Diego, possesses a career .309 on-base percentage and a career .806 OPS against left-handed pitching.  Finally, Washington will be asking Norris to bat 8^th in a potent lineup, hoping he can rebound to his career .309 OBP and hit 12-17 home runs while platooning with Jose Lobaton.  In other words, the team does not need him to be an all-star, just to bounce back to his previous form.

Overall this is a solid baseball trade for both teams.  San Diego is in the midst of a rebuild, making it more valuable for them to clear $4 million from their payroll, acquire an intriguing prospect, and make room for their top prospect Austin Hedges than keep Norris at catcher.

For Washington, they are dealing with some budget constraints this winter and are seeking a major (and likely expensive) upgrade in center field.  These factors, combined with the weak free agent class of catchers, made gambling on a 27-year-old who has a past track record of success likely the best choice of many mediocre options. In addition, Norris allows Washington to keep prospect Pedro Severino in the minors next season.  Severino looked good in his late season cameo after Wilson Ramos got hurt, but the 23-year-old still needs seasoning in the minors to enhance his skills.

Avila is a solid arm and I wish the Nationals had been able to part with another, lesser prospect.  However, Avila’s loss is unlikely to burn Washington in the future.  On the other hand, Norris fills a major need and makes Washington’s roster stronger than before the deal.  While there is some risk involved, this was a shrewd gamble by Washington’s front office to reacquire Derek Norris.

NatsGM Grade   ->           B-

Before General Manager Mike Rizzo and the front office focused their energies toward Thanksgiving dinner, the Washington Nationals acquired right-handed pitcher Jimmy Cordero from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for a Player To Be Named Later or Cash Considerations.  The 25-year-old was designated by assignment last week by Philadelphia, who faced a difficult roster crunch ahead of the forthcoming Rule 5 draft.

Cordero struggled through an injury-filled year in 2016, throwing only 27 innings across four separate minor league levels, allowing 27 hits and 10 walks against only 19 strikeouts.  However, in 2015 Cordero pitched 67 innings at High-A and Double-A, posting a 2.55 ERA with 64 strikeouts against only 51 hits and 24 walks allowed.  In fact, Cordero was acquired by Philadelphia in the summer of 2015 in return for current Nationals’ OF Ben Revere.  Over his 5-year minor league career, Cordero owns a 3.80 ERA with 166 strikeouts against 157 hits and 83 walks over 170.1 innings pitched.

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Although this is a minor move in the grand scheme of the offseason, I am genuinely more excited by this addition than Thanksgiving.  Washington added five players to their roster last week, yet still had open slots and took advantage of Philadelphia’s situation to add a talented arm to their organization.  Certainly I should temper this enthusiasm with the realization he may again be designated for assignment as Washington needs roster spots this winter – that said, Washington lacks this type of upside reliever in the upper minors and he swiftly gives the relief corps another intriguing arm.  This transaction has a chance to get lost in the minutia of this holiday week, but the Nationals’ potentially made a smarter move than extra gravy on your Thanksgiving turkey by acquiring Jimmy Cordero.

NatsGM Grade ->            A-

The Washington Nationals enter this offseason riding high after a 95 win season and their 3^rd division championship in 5 years.  Unfortunately the team’s loss in the NLCS exposed their need for additional depth both offensively and in the bullpen.  Furthermore, with Wilson Ramos and Mark Melancon as key free agents, Washington has obvious needs at catcher and the closer position.

Considering the free agent market is softer this winter than in previous years, one might anticipate a busy winter with trade activity as teams attempt to fill the voids on their roster.  As the front office begins finalizing their offseason plans, these are five players I expect (and encourage) Washington to target in forthcoming trade discussions.

Brian McCann   Catcher                                New York Yankees

As mentioned above, Wilson Ramos is a free agent and reported to be seeking a multiyear contract, making it possible Washington will need to move on from the Buffalo behind the dish. New York is reportedly shopping McCann this winter, after the emergence of young backstop Gary Sanchez this year and the presence of backup Austin Romine.  McCann has 2 more years on his contract, with a team option for 2019, and while he is still quite productive, the Yankees may seek to re-allocate the remaining $34 million toward other roster weaknesses.

Could Gio Gonzalez for Brian McCann be the framework for a beneficial trade for both teams?

John Jaso            1B/OF                   Pittsburgh Pirates

Ryan Zimmerman is Washington’s starting first baseman, but he has struggled the past several seasons with injuries and mediocre offensive numbers.  Also, backup first baseman Clint Robinson scuffled in his sophomore campaign with a woeful .637 OPS, leading many to believe an upgrade this winter is necessary.  Jaso was productive for Pittsburgh last season in the first year of a 2-year $8 million contract, hitting .268/.353/.413 with 8 home runs in 132 games played.

Considering the presence of veterans David Freese and Jung Ho Kang plus the emergence of prospect Josh Bell, Jaso is projected as a bench player for Pittsburgh next year.  The small market Pirates could seek to deal Jaso this winter to save some money or fill another roster spot.  Jaso would provide a nice backup for Zimmerman and a quality left-handed bat for Washington’s bench at an affordable price.

Wade Davis       RHP                        Kansas City Royals
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While rumors will link Washington with top free agent closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, do not be surprised if the Nationals tap into the trade market to fill the closer role.  Options such as Oakland’s Sean Doolittle, St. Louis’s Trevor Rosenthal and Chicago’s David Robertson might be available, but if Kansas City is willing to trade Wade Davis, expect Mike Rizzo to make a strong offer.

Kansas City is likely reluctant to part with such a top relief arm, especially in this environment, but as a small market club, the Royals may decide to trade the final year on his contract for future help.  Not to mention, the Royals still have the presence of Kelvin Herrara to act as closer and several arms to concoct a still impressive bullpen.  I fully expect Kansas City to capitalize on the demand for top relief arms and trade Davis this winter.

Charlie Blackmon            OF          Colorado Rockies

The Nationals face one major decision offensively this winter – where do they play Trea Turner defensively next season and long-term, shortstop or center field?  The answer to this question will reflect how the front office feels about Danny Espinosa and how easily they can find a center fielder.

Colorado might decide to trade the 30-year-old Blackmon this winter as he is only under contract for 2 more seasons, will see his salary jump from $3.5 million to close to $9 million, and they have several talented young outfielders.  If Colorado is willing to trade this talented, left-handed hitting outfielder, Washington might have the young pitchers to entice the Rockies to part with Blackmon.

Jonathan Villar                  SS           Milwaukee Brewers

Understandably it feels unlikely that the rebuilding Brewers would trade a 25-year-old shortstop coming off a season with an .826 OPS and 62 stolen bases.  In addition Villar is expected to make near league minimum as he is under contract for four more seasons.  But Milwaukee appears to want Orlando Arcia as their future shortstop and Villar struggled defensively last season when he shifted to the hot corner, meaning the Brewers must decide whether to move him to second base or trade him.

Obviously many teams would be interested if Villar was made available this winter, but the combination of young pitching prospects and perhaps a young infielder like Wilmer Difo could make Washington competitive in trade discussions.  While a long-shot, do not be surprised if Villar is dealt this offseason.