Scouting the MLB Draft – Spotlighting the Top Arms

Posted on June 7, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

With the 2016 MLB Draft now only 2 days away, NatsGM begins our Draft Week coverage by highlighting several of the top pitchers available in this year’s crop. Currently the depth of this class is the college pitching outside the top-20 picks and the abundance of high school arms. While I cannot mention every top name, these are several players who should be selected early in Round 1 Thursday night.

A.J. Puk LHP University of Florida

A massively built 6-7 230lbs lefty, A.J. Puk has been on scout’s radar since high school, but he spurned a likely early round selection to attend Florida. Puk owns a strong 3-pitch repertoire, including a 94-98mph fastball with life, a hard upper-80s slider with tilt and a mid-80s changeup. His motion is not the cleanest and he has a peculiar arm swing during his delivery, which creates Puk’s biggest weakness, his command and control of the strike zone. These criticisms aside, when Puk is on, he has a flawless pitcher’s frame and the potential for 2 plus-plus pitches, making him the top prospect in this draft class. Puk will go inside the top-5 picks and could go 1^st overall.

For more information, please read my recent column on Puk -> http://natsgm.com/2016/05/16/armchair-evaluation-university-of-florida-lhp-a-j-puk/

Jason Groome LHP New Jersey HS

Perhaps the top high school prospect in the 2016 class, Groome immediately catches the eye with his tall frame, long legs and projectable body. Standing 6-6 180lbs Groome has an easy, repeatable delivery with a natural rhythm throughout and gets quality extension toward home. Groome also impresses with how effortless he achieves his velocity, sitting 92-95mph with strong command of his fastball and showing off a sweeping 73-75mph curveball. In addition Groome also throws a mid-70s changeup with outstanding deception, replicating his fastball arm speed perfectly.

There have been questions about Groome’s maturity this spring, perhaps the only negative in his profile. Groome possesses everything one would seek in a top high school pitching prospect and should not escape the first ten picks.

Riley Pint RHP Kansas HS

Possessing a projectable, dreamy 6-4 192lbs frame, Riley Pint looks the part of an Ace when he toes the rubber. First and foremost Pint is known for his exceptional velocity, sitting upper-90s and often hitting triple digits with some arm-side movement. In addition to the fastball, Pint shows both a slider and a curveball, along with a potentially plus upper-80s changeup. Like most high school pitchers, his motion needs refining, but Pint has electric top-of-the-rotation stuff that cannot be taught and should be drafted inside the top-10 picks.
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Dakota Hudson RHP Mississippi State University

After an impressive performance last summer on Cape Cod, Hudson has continued to build off that success this season for the Bulldogs. Listed at 6-5 225lbs, Hudson possesses an ideal pitcher’s frame, along with a strong 4-pitch arsenal. Hudson’s fastball sits 93-97mph with electric life, a nasty upper-80s cutter, a quality curveball and a changeup. His command is below to fringe-average currently, the biggest knock in his profile. However, his cutter might be the best pitch in this draft class, and as likely the 2^nd best college pitcher available, he should go inside the top-15 picks.

Jordan Sheffield RHP Vanderbilt University

Another in the long line of Vanderbilt starting pitchers, Sheffield has long been known to scouts, as he was a potential 1^st round pick in high school. Sheffield possesses a lightning-quick arm, which produces a mid-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and an impressive changeup. Sheffield does have warts, as physically he is a smallish 6-0 180lbs with a previous Tommy John surgery on his resume, and he struggles to command the strike zone. However, the athleticism and excellent arm speed are easily evident, plus his potential for three above-average to plus pitches. Sheffield should continue the Commodores streak of 1^st round starting pitchers, going off the board quickly outside the top-10.

Zack Burdi RHP University of Louisville

Burdi served as the closer for Louisville this season, dominating the competition with his 100+ mph fastball and powerful high-80s slider. Furthermore Burdi shows a quality changeup and his motion does not scream “reliever”, leading teams to wonder if he can be developed as starter as a professional. The team that believes in him as a starter will likely draft him around #15-#30, with a backup plan being a future as a late-inning reliever.

Eric Lauer LHP Kent State University

One of the top pitchers on Cape Cod last summer, Lauer is a polished lefty with a quality 4-pitch repertoire, including a low-90s fastball, an average or above-average curveball and slider, plus a fringe-average changeup. His physical build portends a durable workhorse capable of pitching 180+ innings per year and his simple, repeatable motion should allow him to pound the strike zone. The lack of elite velocity or plus off-speed pitch likely limits his ceiling, but Lauer projects as a solid #3 or #4 starter.

Others of Note: (College) T.J. Zeuch RHP University of Pittsburgh, Connor Jones RHP University of Virginia, Robert Tyler RHP University of Georgia, Logan Shore RHP University of Florida & Anthony Kay LHP University of Connecticut. (High School) Braxton Garrett LHP, Matt Manning RHP, Ian Anderson RHP, Forest Whitley RHP

THE NatsGM 2016 MLB Mock Draft – Version 1.0

Posted on June 2, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

The 2016 MLB Draft is only seven days away and to begin our coverage of this year’s festivities, today I wanted to publish our first mock draft of the season. Let’s get started!

#1 Phillies – A.J. Puk LHP University of Florida

Philadelphia is expected to choose a college player, likely one of Puk, Nick Senzel or Kyle Lewis. The recent success and the impressive physical tools of Puk will likely make him their pick.

#2 Reds – Nick Senzel 3B University of Tennessee

Also expect Cincinnati to choose a college player, with my bet being they select the higher floor of Senzel over the ceiling of Lewis.

#3 Braves – Kyle Lewis OF Mercer University

Atlanta could look at the two top high school pitchers Jason Groome and Riley Pint, but the local appeal and potential of Lewis could be too enticing for the Braves to pass on.

#4 Rockies – Jason Groome LHP HS

Perhaps the top prospect in this year’s crop, the Rockies should bounce on the opportunity to draft a potential top-of-the-rotation starter in Jason Groome.

#5 Brewers – Delvin Perez SS Puerto Rico

Perez has been heavily linked to Milwaukee much of the spring and this fit makes a lot of sense.

#6 Athletics – Corey Ray OF University of Louisville

Oakland is likely hoping one of the perceived top-3 college hitters in this class (Senzel, Lewis or Ray) fall to them at #6 and in this scenario, the Athletics would likely bounce on Ray.

#7 Marlins – Riley Pint RHP HS

Miami has not shied away from high school players in recent years, and the opportunity to add Pint’s immense talent makes him a nice fit here for the Marlins.

#8 Padres – Mickey Moniak OF HS

This feels low for Moniak, perhaps the top rated high school player in this class, and the Padres would be delighted to add this talented California teenager to their farm system.

#9 Tigers – Zack Collins Catcher University of Miami

Detroit typically leans college players at the top of the draft and will likely be choosing between the best college bat left (Collins) or the best college arm (Dakota Hudson) – here’s guessing they lean toward the perceived safety of a hitter.

#10 White Sox – Dakota Hudson RHP Mississippi State University

Chicago likely would choose Collins if available, but if not, the 2nd best college pitcher in the draft is a nice consolation prize for the White Sox here at #10.

#11 Mariners – Blake Rutherford OF HS

Seattle is always seeking impact hitters and could seize the opportunity to add perhaps the best high school hitter in this crop in Rutherford.

#12 Red Sox – Jordan Sheffield RHP Vanderbilt University

Boston College’s Justin Dunn could be a fit here also. I expect Boston to lean toward college pitchers here at #12, as there are several comparable talented arms still available.

#13 Rays – Braxton Garrett LHP HS

Tampa would probably prefer a college player but the opportunity to add the 2nd best high school lefty Braxton Garrett might trump that desire.

#14 Indians – Matt Manning RHP HS

Cleveland has not shied away from difficult to sign high school players in recent years and Manning has the most potential of any player left on the board.

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Minnesota has plenty of hitting prospects, but have struggled to develop pitching in the past several years. Dunn has a fresh arm and electric stuff, making him a nice value in the middle of the 1st.

#16 Angels – T.J. Zeuch RHP University of Pittsburgh

Zeuch has flown up draft boards this season and I think the Angels will be tempted to choose from several talented college arms still on the board in an effort to bolster their floundering farm system.

#17 Astros – Matt Thaiss Catcher University of Virginia

Probably the best hitter still available, Thaiss is a nice value outside the top-15 picks and feels like a good fit here with Houston.

#18 Yankees – Ian Anderson RHP HS

A talented New York high school pitcher, I expect the Yankees (or the Mets) to quickly gobble up this local product here at #18 or #19.

#19 Mets – Will Craig 3B Wake Forest University

If the Yankees select Anderson, Craig has been linked to the Mets all spring and feels like a good fit for a team who prioritizes college performance.

#20 Dodgers – Taylor Trammell OF HS

The Dodgers tend to pick “best player available” in the early rounds of the draft and the uniquely talented Trammell could be the top player on their board when their turn arrives.

#21 Blue Jays – Zack Burdi RHP University of Louisville

Toronto has not shied away from converted college relievers in the draft and might be tempted to select Burdi, with the idea of moving him quickly to bolster their struggling bullpen. Burdi has three quality pitches and a chance to start, but his fastball/slider combination make him a natural fit as a closer.

#22 Pirates – Alex Kirilloff OF HS

A local product from Pittsburgh and likely the top player still available, Kirilloff feels like a natural fit to the Pirates here at #22.

#23 Cardinals – Forest Whitley RHP HS

St. Louis has three picks in the top-35 selections, so I expect them to take the top player available here, likely a high school prospect who has fallen. Whitley has outstanding pure stuff and fits well here in the early 20s.

#24 Padres – Cal Quantrill RHP Stanford University

Quantrill has been heavily linked to San Diego, although most expect he will not last this long. Strangely in this exercise, Quantrill is still available and I would expect the Padres to bounce if so.

#25 Padres – Bryan Reynolds OF Vanderbilt University

Assuming the Padres have the good fortune to select Moniak at #8 and Quantrill at #24, expect San Diego to select an “easy-to-sign” college player at this pick to help keep their bonus demands within their allotment. Reynolds has performed well in the SEC, is a switch-hitter and can possibly stay in center field, making him a good value here.

#26 White Sox – Gavin Lux SS HS

Lux has been flying up draft boards this spring as one of the few middle infield prospects expected to stay at shortstop in professional baseball. Lux could go higher than this, but the Wisconsin product feels like a good gamble for the White Sox at #26.

#27 Orioles – Nolan Jones SS HS

Baltimore has been rumored with high school bats this spring, and talented Pennsylvania infielder Nolan Jones is somewhat surprisingly still available.

#28 Nationals – Eric Lauer LHP Kent State

Washington has drafted pitching quite often with their top picks in the draft, and considering the depth of college pitching available, the Nationals will likely choose an arm with one of these two picks. Lauer has a strong track record of performance, and as a lefty, would offer something the farm system currently lacks.

#29 Nationals – Buddy Reed CF University of Florida

After taking a pitcher, I would expect the Nationals to look to choose a hitter with this pick. There are several college outfielders still available, but I will wager the Nationals gamble on Reed’s incredible physical gifts and dream on their ability to teach him to hit consistently. Reed has plenty of boom-or-bust, but would be a terrific value at #29.

THE NatsGM Show Episode #70 – Guest Jim Callis

Posted on May 30, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

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THE NatsGM Show Episode #70 has recorded and we are proud to welcome back Senior writer for MLB.com & MLBPipeline.com and noted MLB Draft guru, Jim Callis!

The pill likes levitra line pharmacy would work finest if guzzle using water. According to the 2015 National Survey on Drug Use and usa generic viagra Health (NSDUH), approximately 7.9 million people had both a mental disorder and substance use disorder in 2013. viagra sans prescription Acne increases the risk of depression and suicide attempt. The physical and mental dilemma of this can be reflected visit for source now viagra samples from doctor in their driving skills. Jim joins us less than 2 weeks from the 2016 MLB Draft to get us fully educated on this year’s crop of prospects. First Jim begins by sharing his overall thoughts on the class, including the strengths and weaknesses of the group. Then he talks about top high school arms Jason Groome and Riley Pint before transitioning to the best college arms available, namely A.J. Puk, Dakota Hudson, Zach Burdi and Jordan Sheffield. Next we shift to the bats, where Jim dissects the top hitters available, specifically Kyle Lewis, Corey Ray, Nick Senzel and Zach Collins. Finally, Jim talks about local players Joe Rizzo, Connor Jones & Mike Shawaryn, then plays a round of “Rapid Fire“.

Thanks to Jim for graciously returning to the show and to our sponsor No Halftime!

Scouting The MLB Draft – Interview with Christopher Crawford

Posted on May 27, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

With the 2016 MLB Draft now less than 2 weeks away, I reached out to Baseball Prospectus writer and noted draft guru Christopher Crawford to ask him a few questions about this year’s prospect crop. Even this close to draft day, Christopher was kind enough to spare some time to answer a few questions.

NatsGM – “So Chris, the place to start is your “big-picture” thoughts on this year’s draft crop – How is this class talent wise and what are the strengths and weaknesses of the class overall?”

C. Crawford – “It’s a frustrating class. One week you’ll look at this group and think it’s one of the best of the decade, the next you’ll compare it to some of the dreadful classes of the previous. The strength to me is in the outfield, there’s a couple of handfuls full of guys who can make an impact both at the prep and collegiate level. The weakness is pitching, particularly in college. This is the worst collegiate pitching class that I can remember in quite some time.”

NatsGM – “There are two high school arms getting plenty of attention this year, Jason Groome and Riley Pint – Thoughts on these two and whom do you prefer?”

C. Crawford – “Groome is the top player on my board. He’s a southpaw who has shown two 70 pitches in his fastball and a disgusting curveball, and he’ll complement them with a pretty solid change as well. He’s had some command issues and that whole suspension thing, but he’s still the guy I’d take 1.1.

Pint has the best fastball of any pitcher — college or prep — eligible this year, and if you gear for that as a hitter, he can make you feel silly with a plus change. The issue is the delivery; there’s some effort, and I’m not sure it’s conducive to having starter command long-term. The upside is huge, but the floor is reliever, unfortunately.”

NatsGM – “If you were the GM of each team inside the top-5, who would you take (not who do you think they will take) and why?”

C. Crawford – “I believe in taking the best player available approach, so if I’m Philly, I’m taking Jason Groome, if I’m Cincinnati I am taking Corey Ray, If I’m Atlanta I’m taking Delvin Perez, if I’m Colorado I’m taking Blake Rutherford and if I’m Milwaukee I’m taking Braxton Garrett. That will almost assuredly not be what happens, but that’s how I’d do it if someone were foolish enough to let me try.”
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NatsGM – “Let’s do some Rapid Fire Question – Who is your favorite Day 2 prospect(s) and/or your personal cheeseball in this class?”

C. Crawford – “Really tough to say, but a guy I really like who will likely go on day 2 is Bo Bichette, a infielder who can really hit and gets rave reviews about his instincts. My favorite cheeseball is the kind with the nuts.”

NatsGM – “Who is your favorite HS bat, Rutherford, Moniak or someone else?”

C. Crawford – “Delvin Perez. I get the immaturity questions, but in terms of just pure upside, he’s the best player in the class.”

NatsGM – “Best catching prospect (long-term) in this crop?”

C. Crawford – “It’s close, but I would have to say Matt Thaiss. He’s not a lock to stick behind the plate, but he can really swing the bat, so he doesn’t have to be an elite defender.”

Thank you so much Christopher. I want to encourage everyone to buy his 2016 MLB Draft Guide available here -> https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/baseball-prospectus-mlb-draft/id1090576351?mt=11