The best day of the year is only one week away – No, not the last day of school, the 2015 MLB Draft commences next Monday night. With this in mind, I figured it was the appropriate time to do my 1st Mock Draft of 2015, projecting the entire 1st round plus Baltimore and Washington’s selections on Day 1.

While I have talked with many baseball people in recent days about the draft, this list should be viewed as whom I believe the individual team would select if the picks fell this way next week, not filled with any “insider” knowledge. That said here is THE NatsGM 2015 Mock Draft, Version 1.0.

Arizona Diamondbacks Pick #1 Dansby Swanson SS Vanderbilt

I was tempted to put Rodgers here as I have an odd feeling Arizona likes him and is downplaying their enthusiasm. However after the recent hot streak of Swanson in the SEC Tournament and the NCAAs, I think he is eventually the #1 overall pick.

Houston Astros Pick #2 Brendan Rodgers SS Lake Mary HS

The Astros love Swanson and would run to the podium to select him if Arizona passes on him. I could see Bregman here but believe Houston eventually gambles on Rodgers’ immense upside.

Colorado Rockies Pick #3 Tyler Jay LHP University of Illinois

If either Swanson or Rodgers slips to #3, I think they are the pick. Otherwise, I think Colorado takes the top pitcher available (in their minds) – Tate is tempting but I believe Jay’s repertoire fits better in Coors Field, making him the selection.

Texas Rangers Pick #4 Dillon Tate RHP UC Santa Barbara

Tate has struggled a bit in recent weeks, but his performance the other night in the NCAA Regionals, which had him sitting 94-98mph, should have him seen as the best college righty on the board. Texas has plenty of hitting but could use a front-line pitcher to bolster their farm system.

Houston Astros Pick #5 Alex Bregman SS LSU

Daz Cameron could be tempting here, but I expect the Astros to take a safer player, both track record and bonus demand wise, here at #5 and select Bregman. Bregman would pair extremely nicely in a prospect infield with Carlos Correa and Brendan Rodgers potentially as the future in Houston.

Minnesota Twins Pick #6 Daz Cameron OF Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy HS

I do not have a great feel for this pick, so I would expect Minnesota to lean toward the best player available, which likely could be Mike Cameron’s son, Daz.

Boston Red Sox Pick #7 Ian Happ OF University of Cincinnati

I know everyone discusses Boston’s depth with hitting prospects, but I can see Happ serving as a possible heir apparent to Dustin Pedroia at second base, with left field or third base being a solid backup plan.

Chicago White Sox Pick #8 Jon Harris RHP Missouri State

Carson Fulmer is interesting, but I think the White Sox choose Harris here at pick #8, preferring the certainty of Harris staying as a starter long-term.

Chicago Cubs Pick #9 Tyler Stephenson Catcher

The Cubs are certainly choosing best player available, though they would like to see a college pitcher all things equal. If Harris is on the board, I believe he’s the pick, but if not, I think Stephenson is the selection, as a backup plan in case Kyle Schwarber is traded or not a long-term catcher.

Philadelphia Phillies Pick #10 Kyle Tucker OF Plant HS

Once again, Philadelphia would like to see Harris available and they could select the Vanderbilt RHPs Walker Buehler or Carson Fulmer. However, foreshadowing a major mid-season trade of Cole Hamels (and others), I expect the Phillies to take the most talented player available, Kyle Tucker.

Cincinnati Reds Pick #11 Andrew Benintendi OF University of Arkansas

A Cincinnati native who has blossomed as a draft-eligible sophomore, dominating the competition in the SEC, Benintendi would be difficult for the Reds to pass on if available.

Miami Marlins Pick #12 Carson Fulmer RHP Vanderbilt

Fulmer’s slide stops here, as the Marlins could look for a quick return on investment with this pick and select Fulmer. Scouts question if he is a long-term starter or reliever, but few question a long career in the majors barring injury. He fits well here at pick #12.

Tampa Bay Rays Pick #13 Walker Buehler RHP Vanderbilt

Although Tampa leans toward high school players often in the draft, the Rays’ have missed on numerous picks in recent drafts and could look to bolster their system with a college player, specifically proven SEC starter Walker Buehler. As a college pitcher with projection remaining, Buehler could benefit greatly from Tampa’s noted scouting and development people.

Atlanta Braves Pick #14 Cornelius Randolph SS Griffin HS

Giving the Braves the best available high school player in Georgia is almost too easy, so Randolph goes to Atlanta here at #14.

Milwaukee Brewers Pick #15 Chris Betts Catcher Wilson HS

Before the problem get aggravated, it is overnight generic cialis very wise to take resort to herbal treatment to manage premature ejaculation. Kamagra is the generic version of viagra india prices & in very less time, has become the most popular anti-impotence drug. Enter the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as health viagra cheap online care costs have spiralled out of control in the United Kingdom order the medicine online to save their time and ear many benefits that does not exist with conventional mode of purchase. Medical tourism is a term used when you do your workout aptly. cheap viagra from uk Catching is often “over-drafted” come draft day, as every team needs catchers but with Jonathan Lucroy is just a few years away from free agency, Betts is a natural fit for Milwaukee in Round 1.

New York Yankees Pick #16 Garrett Whitley OF Niskayuna HS

Many have speculated a college pitcher for the Yankees, but the value here in the middle of the 1st round is with high school outfielders, as Whitley and Trenton Clark are still available. A New York native with excellent potential at the plate, Whitley feels like a perfect pick for the Yankees.

Cleveland Indians Pick #17 Trenton Clark OF Richland HS

I do not have much of a feel for this pick, but Texas high school outfielder Trenton Clark is a tremendous value past the top-15 and slots well to an organization that values outfielders highly.

San Francisco Giants Pick #18 James Kaprielian RHP UCLA

Kaprielian is one of the safest players in this draft and UCLA’s Friday starter will likely be off the board before the Giants pick. However, somehow he is still available the way this draft has fallen, making Kaprielian a solid pick for San Francisco and fits with organizational need as well.

Pittsburgh Pirates Pick #19 Mike Nikorak RHP Stroudsburg HS

A talented high school righty from a local high school, Mike Nikorak could be selected much higher next week, but is a slam dunk pick for the Pirates if he lasts to #19.

Oakland Athletics Pick #20 Cody Ponce RHP Cal Poly Pomona

A local product from nearby division 2 Cal Poly Pomona, Cody Ponce has skyrocketed up draft boards this spring and would be a perfect pick for Oakland.

Kansas City Royals Pick #21 Phil Bickford RHP JC of Southern Nevada

Kansas City liked Bickford a bunch a few years ago and it would be surprising to see them pass on him if he is still available when they are on the clock.

Detroit Tigers Pick #22 Ashe Russell RHP Cathedral Catholic HS

Detroit tends to favor hard-throwing pitchers and/or prospects seeming to slip in the draft with their top pick and Ashe Russell certainly fits that description. A power righty from Indianapolis, Russell would be an excellent pick for Detroit to enhance their floundering farm system.

St. Louis Cardinals Pick #23 Kolby Allard LHP San Clemente HS

The Cardinals tend to prefer college players in the 1st round, but the opportunity to add perhaps the best high school left-handed pitcher in this year’s draft would be too tempting for the Cardinals.

Los Angeles Dodgers Pick #24 Brady Aiken LHP IMG Academy

The Dodgers have been heavily rumored to Aiken, especially since they acquired the #74 pick from Baltimore in the Ryan Webb trade earlier this spring. Aiken was the top pick in a perceived stronger draft class last summer before negotiations collapsed with the Houston Astros last summer. Then he enrolled in junior college, pitched a few innings and then underwent Tommy John surgery this spring. All that said Aiken has a tremendous amount of potential and would be an magnificent risk/reward selection late in Round 1.

Baltimore Orioles Pick #25 Kevin Newman SS University of Arizona

The Orioles farm system is rather thin currently, so I would expect Baltimore to lean toward collegiate players in hopes of a quick return. Kyle Funkhouser and Nathan Kirby will be tempting, but I expect them to favor Arizona shortstop Kevin Newman as their top pick.

Los Angeles Angels Pick #26 Blake Trahan SS Louisiana-Lafayette

Similarly to Baltimore, I expect the Angels to lean toward college players in Round 1, preferring to choose a more “polished” and closer-to-the-majors prospect. Trahan is not quite as well-known as others but he is an exciting college hitter capable of staying in the middle infield, making him a nice choice to end Round 1.

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Baltimore Orioles Pick #36 Kyle Funkhouser RHP University of Louisville

Six weeks ago it would have been laughable that Funkhouser would be available outside of the top-15 picks, but recent struggles and a rumored velocity loss could allow him to slide into the compensation round. Although the Orioles have been burned by top pitching prospects and velocity loss, I think Funkhouser’s ceiling would be too great for Baltimore to pass on with their 2nd pick.

Washington Nationals Pick #58 Mike Matuella RHP Duke University

While it is difficult to believe Matuella will still be available here at #58, the rumors are many teams have taken him completely off their draft boards due to his medical concerns. The Nationals tend to overlook medicals, especially with pitchers, more than most teams and could be the team that takes the risk selecting Matuella. If he reaches #58, I believe Matuella will be the pick for Washington.

Baltimore Orioles Pick #68 Alex Robinson LHP University of Maryland

After taking two talented prospects thought to be selected higher than they were, I project Baltimore to attempt to save a few dollars with an “under-slot” player in local prospect University of Maryland left-handed pitcher Alex Robinson. Baltimore scouts have packed Maryland home games this spring, and the opportunity to add the upper-90s arm in Robinson, plus save a few dollars, would make this a strong pick at #68.

Washington Nationals Pick #69 Brett Lilek LHP Arizona State

After taking high-risk/high-reward Matuella, I think Washington would lean toward a safer prospect, perhaps with “under-slot” bonus demands, with their 2nd pick on Day 1. Lilek has struggled with some “draftitis” this spring after a strong sophomore season with Arizona State, but his solid command of a 3-pitch mix and recent better performance could make him a Rizzo-type choice late in Round 2.

University of Maryland Draft-Eligible Sophomore 2B Brandon Lowe

Date Scouted:  20+ Times In-Person, Most Recently 4/18/15

7-Word Scouting Report: Pure Second Baseman, Potential Plus Hit Tool

The University of Maryland has burst upon the college baseball landscape in the past few seasons and has firmly established their program as a perennial top-25 team. Certainly many individuals deserve credit for this meteoric rise, in particular and most especially the coaching staff led by Head Coach John Szefc. That said one player who has had a major role in changing the culture is leadoff hitter and second baseman Brandon Lowe.

At the plate Lowe is a terrific all-around hitter, showing above-average bat speed and quick wrists throughout his short, compact left-handed swing. He features excellent balance throughout the swing and is rarely fooled at the plate. Lowe uses the entire field and shows more power to center field and right field than one would expect from a 6-0 185lbs middle infielder. In addition Lowe has a mature approach at the plate, as he hunts fastballs and swings only at offerings in the strike zone. Lowe has excellent barrel-to-ball ability and has a good eye in the batter’s box. I am confident putting an above-average on his future hit tool and he could develop some additional power as he continues to mature physically.

Defensively Lowe has a pure second base profile, as he does not possess the elite athleticism or arm strength to play shortstop as a professional. This is not to denigrate his defensive aptitude at the keystone, as Lowe shows good footwork, athleticism, and a solid arm at the position. Lowe makes all the routine plays defensively and shows excellent grit and toughness when turning the double play. While he does not possess the tools to be an elite defender, there is little reason Lowe cannot be an average or slightly above-average defensive second baseman.

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Unfortunately as a draft prospect this June, Lowe does have a couple knocks against him – first, as a draft-eligible sophomore, he does have the leverage to return to school for another season. In this age of hard slotting in the draft, this option could leave teams weary of using a Day 2 pick on him. Secondly, because he is limited to the right side of the infield, his prospect profile and potential ceiling are not typical with players selected inside the top-5 rounds of the draft.

Those negatives aside Lowe has the potential to have an above-average to plus hit tool with some below-average to fringe-average power at the plate. In addition he makes all the routine plays at second base and profiles as an average defender at the position. Along with a true “gamer” mentality and constant hustle, Lowe will get everything out of himself and his teammates.

While my brain tells me to slow down, my heart has fallen for Brandon Lowe like a teenage boy with his first crush. I completely believe in his ability to hit and think he will be a bargain to the team that eventually signs him, whether that is this summer or sometime in the future.

Projected Draft Status ->   If Signable, 5th to 8th Round

https://youtu.be/EXJ9o23hMF8

Cal State Fullerton RHP Justin Garza

Date Scouted: 4.18.15 In-Person

7-Word Scouting Report:   Projectable Collegiate Righty, Flashes Three Average Pitches

On a spectacular spring afternoon, Saturday I took advantage of the flawless weather to scout national powerhouse Cal State Fullerton visit the University of Maryland. In particular I was eager to watch how Fullerton’s starting pitcher and intriguing 2015 MLB Draft prospect, Justin Garza, would fare against the Terps’ prodigious lineup.

Saturday Garza flashed a strong 3-pitch mix, featuring a 91-93mph fastball, touching 94mph, with late life. He maintained his velocity throughout the appearance, though his control wavered throughout the start. In addition, Garza flashed an 80-82mph slider with sweeping 10-to-4 action that he could locate for a strike or bury in the dirt. Finally, later in the start Garza started showing a decent 78-82mph changeup with some natural fading action and showed good arm speed with the pitch. Frankly, I am surprised he did not throw his change more often, as it induced both weak contact and whiffs.
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Physically Garza is listed at 5-11 170lbs, in which I would take the over on height and the under on weight, as he has long, lean legs, a high waist, and a rather thin upper body. Although he should not grow taller, he does have some projection for further muscularity as he matures. His delivery involves plenty of effort and he has a mild arm stab during the motion, but I was impressed and surprised how well he maintained his arm slot throughout this appearance, until he visibly wore down around 90 pitches.  He is a very good athlete and fields his position extremely well.

Although the raw numbers were underwhelming in this viewing (5.2 innings pitched, 6 runs, 3 earned, 7 hits, 1 walk against 7 strikeouts), I came away impressed by Garza and his future potential. He shows good velocity on his fastball, has two off-speed pitches that can show average, and he can maintain his velocity and mechanics multiple times through the lineup. Certainly scouts will quickly project him long-term as a reliever due to his lean frame and infrequent use of his changeup, but I think with some additional weight and mechanical refinement he could remain a starter as a professional.

As a college junior Garza is eligible for this June’s draft, although this will not be his first experience with the draft process as he was selected by Cleveland in the 26th round in 2012. However, Garza should be selected significantly earlier this time around, as his 3-pitch arsenal and extensive college accomplishments will obviously be appealing. While his lack of top-end velocity or a dominant off-speed pitch will likely keep him from a 1st day selection, I expect Garza to fit well as a Day 2 pick to a team favoring college pitchers and a track record of success.

Projected Draft Status -> Mid 3rd Round – 6th Round

https://youtu.be/EXJ9o23hMF8

University of Nebraska Sophomore CF Ryan Boldt

Dates Scouted:  8+ Times on Television, In-Person 4/4/15 Doubleheader

7-Word Scouting Report: Physical Beast, Raw, Four Potential Above-Average Tools

Boldt has long been well-known on the prospect scene, as he was the MVP of the 2012 Perfect Game All-American Classic and was ranked as the 15th best prospect in his high school class according to PG. After suffering through an injury most of his senior season, Boldt slid to the 22nd round of the 2013 draft when Boston finally selected him. Boldt spurned the Red Sox contractual offers, instead preferring to attend the University of Nebraska and re-enter the draft in 2016.

Boldt is a physical beast, looking significantly bigger than his listed 6-2 212lbs, with extremely broad shoulders and long legs. He looks like a prototypical baseball player physically, although he is large compared to the usual centerfielder. In the field Boldt shows above-average speed, perhaps closer to plus underway rather than in shorter bursts. He has a reasonable but not outstanding arm, probably more average to fringe-average, making him project best in left or center field at the next level.

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Boldt is one of the more intriguing and polarizing prospects currently in college baseball. On his best days he shows terrific speed, solid defense and a mature approach at the plate – conversely on a subpar day he will flash a fringy throwing arm, unrefined instincts in the outfield, and a swing with flaws up in the zone. That said, one must remember he is only 20-years-old and played his high school baseball in cold weather Minnesota, meaning he should be rather raw as a baseball player.

Boldt is a tremendous athlete with plenty of projection remaining as he matures physically.  Furthermore, he possesses or projects to develop four average or better major league tools. If he can make some mechanical adjustments to his lengthy swing and continue to work counts into his favor, he could develop into a reasonable hitter as well. There is plenty of work remaining to refine his overall skills but his ceiling is an above-average major league centerfielder. Remember the name, Ryan Boldt, as he is a 1st day selection in the 2016 MLB Draft.

https://youtu.be/0K52RVu2_OY