Thursday the Washington Nationals announced they had signed 16-year-old Dominican outfielder Juan Soto to a $1.5 million dollar bonus, the largest bonus ever given by the franchise to a Latin American prospect. Ranked as the #22 overall international prospect by MLB.com and #13 by Baseball America, the left-handed hitting Soto was clearly one of the top hitting prospects available in this class.

Therefore because the Nationals decided Soto was worth such a substantial and unusual investment, I immediately went to the internet to find scouting video of the newest member of the Nationals.

Immediately I am impressed with his loose wrists and impeccable movement with his back shoulder during his swing. Soto has obvious fluidity through the strike zone and a natural ability to put the barrel of the bat to the baseball.  He has above-average but not elite batspeed and should add positive mass as he matures physically.  His lower half has plenty of moving parts and excess movement, although he shows a natural athleticism within the violence of his swing.  This intrinsic talent to make solid contact is evident, but like any teenage hitter, he needs to refine and harness his swing.  Soto looks extremely polished as a hitter and I think he is going to become a player down the road.

That said, whenever I become “too confident” in a player’s ability to hit, I consult friend of the site and Baseball Prospectus’s Hitting Guru Ryan Parker to get his expert opinion – Here are his thoughts about Juan Soto:
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“Soto has some obvious strength and batspeed going for him in his swing. With younger hitters I know the mechanics aren’t always going to be pristine so I’m more looking at if they have the foundation on which to build a good swing down the road. For the most part Soto has that foundation. He has has a good feel for rhythm and flow within his swing and a good amount of balance for such a young kid.

Swing-wise I wish he would clean up his front side actions. He has a good leg kick but nothing gets moving forward. It’s a pure timing move rather than a move that creates energy. Because nothing is working forward in his front side it makes his first move with his hands be a forward push rather than a turn around his back shoulder.

I wouldn’t be too concerned for two reasons. One, that is a relatively easy fix. Learn to take the hips forward during the stride. Two, his back side actions are pretty solid. His back arm gets to a good slot and moves pretty well in sequence. His back leg is even better. Zero-in on his back leg during the stride. See how it turns back to the catcher before working forward. That is a high level move. He sets up the back leg well and fires it hard. I dig it.

There is some work to be done with Soto’s swing but the fixes aren’t terribly difficult, the foundation is solid, and he is already showcasing some impressive movement patterns.” – Ryan Parker

* Thank you to Ryan for sharing his time and providing excellent analysis. *

Lynchburg Hillcats CF Bradley Zimmer

Dates Scouted In-Person: 4/10-4/11, 5/30, 10+ times pre-2015

7-Word Scouting Report:    Elite Centerfielder, Five Tool and All-Star Potential

Bradley Zimmer was selected by the Cleveland Indians in the 1st round, 21st overall, in the 2014 MLB Draft after a successful 3-year career at the University of San Francisco. The younger brother of Kansas City Royals’ pitcher Kyle, Bradley has outstanding baseball skills himself, including the potential for five average or better tools and game-changing ability as a defender.
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Defensively Zimmer has all of the tools to play a gold-glove caliber center field in the major leagues. He has an easy plus arm, with some scouts labeling it a potential “7”, along with above-average to plus speed and excellent instincts in the field. Like most 22-year-olds in High-A, he needs more experience polishing his ability to take the most direct route to the baseball. That said his defense is major league ready today and he profiles as a difference maker in center field at the big league level.

At the plate Zimmer shows excellent balance and a mature approach, along with a keen batting eye. Zimmer has above-average or better bat speed, but his long limbs can allow his swing to get long at times. He has a relatively flat swing and solid bat-to-ball skills, which translates to more doubles in the gaps rather than over the fence power. That said I have seen flashes of power both in batting practice and in-game action, giving him a chance to hit some home runs in the future, especially if he fills out physically as he matures. I project him to have an above-average to plus hit tool (a “6”) with below-average to fringe-average (“40-45”) home run power in the majors.

After watching him for two different series this year, I am fully prepared to captain the “Bradley Zimmer Fan Club” going forward. Zimmer needs additional minor league refinement, but I see him as a future fringe gold-glove defender with extra base power and batting average potential.  It would be untrue to say Zimmer is a sleeper prospect after being selected in the 1st round last June, though I would argue he is overlooked when the public discusses the top outfielders in the minors. Zimmer projects as an above-average future major league centerfielder and the Indians got a steal when he slipped to them in the draft last summer.

https://youtu.be/9hrE-CtcEIU

This past weekend I was afforded the opportunity to travel to Milwaukee to attend the Baseball Prospectus event in conjunction with the Milwaukee Brewers. This was my first time visiting the state of Wisconsin, let alone Miller Park, so I was quite enthusiastic to attend a game as a fan at a “new to me” stadium.

Unfortunately I have reached the point in my life where I am slightly uncomfortable going to a baseball game without a work agenda, so I decided rather than scouting players, I would scout Miller Park and the overall fan experience. Instead of using the five scouting tools typically associated with a hitter, I have broken down a stadium into five categories, namely Accessibility, Aesthetics, Affordability, Concessions and Fan Experience.

Accessibility –  3.5 Out of 4 Radar Guns

The stadium is not downtown which ruffles some fans’ feathers but the park is located just off the highway, with a plethora of parking. Getting into the stadium was rather easy, likely due to the large number of fans that tailgate before the games. They have plenty of taxis waiting postgame to take the overly-intoxicated fans home and they do a strong job of moving the flow of traffic to the highway. Still, leaving the stadium was slightly adventurous due to the volume of cars and the need to avoid various postgame tailgates.

Aesthetics –   2 Out of 4 Radar Guns

Easily the biggest weakness of Miller Park, as the structure of the mechanical roof gives the stadium an industrial feel, which is further boosted because it resides in an industrial area of the city. Quite frankly, the roof is ugly. However, once inside the doors the park is much better, as it has a cozy feel throughout the stadium. The scoreboard in center field is impressive and the Bernie the Brewer slide in left field gives the stadium something unique, but in general, the abundance of metal hurts the overall beauty of the place.

Affordability –  3.5 Out of 4 Radar Guns

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Furthermore, while I shudder to pay $8 for a Miller product, they give you a large beer for your money and the food and beverage prices are cheaper than any other major league stadium I have been to previously. Overall, Miller Park is extremely cost-friendly compared to the many other entertainment options available today.

Concessions –   2.75 Out of 4 Radar Guns

In terms of beer, you REALLY better like Miller products or else you are not going to have a rather dry evening. I happen to not be a Miller fan, so I was struggling like Joe Namath to find a microbrew option. While the lack of beer options was disappointing, conversely the food quality and choices were tremendous, highlighted by the numerous bratwursts and sausage stands throughout the stadium.

Fan Experience –  3.75 Out of 4 Radar Guns

This is definitely the strength of the park – from the individuals tailgating before the game and feeling well lubricated, to the plentiful amount of restrooms, and seemingly each fan wearing home team gear, I was extremely impressed with Miller Park and the overall experience of attending a game. If they wouldn’t charge $8 for a Miller Lite and added a few options like Lakefront Brewery and Spotted Cow, this could be a 4.

Overall Rating -> 14.5 out of 20, Solid B

Overall I leave Milwaukee with an overwhelmingly positive experience watching a weekend of baseball games at Miller Park. Certainly the outside could look a bit more pleasant to the eyes, but once you enter the stadium, the experience is one of the very best in baseball. I highly encourage all baseball fans to make a trip to Miller Park and I am certain I will make a return visit in the future.

Offense at the major league level is down significantly from ten years ago.  This fact has forced me to change the way I evaluate hitters and the increased value I place on a quality bat than I did even three years ago.

The fact that scoring is steadily declining year after year has me often wondering why this is happening (lets please ignore the word “steroids”) and will the next generation of young hitters be able to reverse this trend?  In this vein I reached out to noted Hitting Guru and Baseball Prospectus author Ryan Parker to discuss the decline in offense, scouting prospects, and the future of hitting.  Below is the transcript of our conversation –

NatsGM ->  “The last 10 years has seen a sharp decline in offense at the MLB level and throughout baseball.  Aside from PEDs, what are your thoughts behind why this has happened?  Is it as simple as the pitching getting better and/or the hitters getting worse?”

Mr. Parker -> “Pitchers have become more athletic and hitters have gone the opposite direction. 94 used to be a big deal. Now 94 is nothing. That kind of velocity gets on hitters. Hitting is a guess and the higher the velocity the less time you have to make a guess. Also you have more defense shifts than ever so that hard line drive goes from being a single to a lineout. Training wise it seems pitchers are far ahead of hitters.”

NatsGM ->  “When you work with amateur hitters, what skills can be improved and what talents is a batter “born with”?”

Mr. Parker -> “Pretty much everything can be improved. It’s more how quickly can they make the adjustments. I think something that is a born skill is want. I can help a young hitter craft a solid swing but I can’t teach the want to be in the cage everyday.”

NatsGM ->  “Now, when you scout prospects both in the minors and amateurs, what in particular are you looking at or for?

Mr. Parker -> “In BP I’m big into looking at movements. Not necessarily mechanics but if a guy is real stiff in BP it’s not like he’s going to magically turn into a smooth athlete during the game. If he can move well, and has some batspeed, I’m then going to look for balance. Big leaguers are athletes. You aren’t an athlete if you are falling over yourself in BP. Results wise in BP I’m looking at how the ball comes off the bat. Obviously distance is important but hitting balls that don’t hook or slice is a huge thing for me. It indicates solid contact and good barrel control. During the games I’m going to key in on how they track and take pitches. A take is just a swing that you hit the pause button during. If a batters initial movements during a take when compared to swing are different it’s not a good sign. I don’t want hitters who miss mistakes. You better not miss mistake pitches because there will be very few of those offerings as you move up the organizational ladder.”
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NatsGM -> “We have seen obvious improvements with pitchers in recent years, particularly velocity and a focus on extension through their delivery.  How do you anticipate hitters evolving in the next few years to counteract this shift?”

Mr. Parker -> “Couple of the changes I think are on the horizon for working with hitters is the implementation of hitting regimens similar to pitchers throwing long toss or weighted ball regimens. The other change is the implementation of tracking technology both on the bat like Zepp or on the flight of the ball like HitTrax. Check those out. So cool!!”

NatsGM ->  “Final question, what is your biggest hitting pet peeve?”

Mr. Parker -> “My single biggest one… man I have a ton. I guess my biggest one is taking the athlete out of the swing. Hitters are so rigid and mechanical as opposed to fluid and athletic. Let these athletes move. So many hitters are schooled to hit in a way that tries to eliminate things going wrong instead of building swings that maximize what can go right.”

NatsGM ->  “Thanks so much Ryan, where can people find you on social media, your work, and take a lesson from you?”

Mr. Parker ->  “You can find me on twitter at RA_Parker. You can read my work and the work of people way cooler than me over at BaseballProspectus. If you want to get the full experience come on down to Charleston,SC and venture to East Coast Baseball Academy. 

Last thing. Guys… Girls… This site is awesome. Ryan is the best. Tell your friends, tell your family, tell them all to get on the NatsGM train!

NatsGM -> “You are far too kind.  Thanks again for joining me and talking some hitting.  I hope to have you back in the future to educate us further about the baseball swing.”