THE NatsGM Unofficial Official Baltimore Orioles Top-11 Prospect List

Posted on February 1, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

After a string of poor draft results five to ten years ago, the Baltimore Orioles currently have an intriguing yet puzzling farm system on the whole. Several prospects, namely Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey, struggled mightily with injuries in 2015 and the presence of Kevin Gausman, Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop on the big league roster leaves the minor leagues feeling a bit more barren than perhaps it should.

Nonetheless, as the calendar now says February and the offseason is nearly over, I figured this to be an ideal time to analyze the Orioles’ farm system to rank their top prospects. My criterion for this list prioritizes, in order, the prospect’s possible ceiling, their likelihood to fulfill their potential, their positional value, and finally, how far they are from reaching the major leagues. With this in mind, here is my unofficial official 2016 Baltimore Orioles Top-11 prospects.

#11 D.J. Stewart OF

The Orioles 1st Round selection, 25th overall, last summer from Florida State University, Stewart is a polished collegiate left-handed hitter who swings from a pronounced crouch and has shown the ability to hit to all fields. He does not possess much speed and his fringe-average arm makes him a pure left field profile, putting significant pressure on his bat to eventually reach the majors.

#10 Jonah Heim Catcher

The 20-year-old Heim struggled through a difficult year in 2015, as he only played 45 games due to injuries. The Orioles’ 4th round pick in 2013, Heim was drafted as an advanced defensive catcher who was raw offensively as a switch-hitter. Heim is clearly above-average behind the dish, with quality blocking and receiving skills plus a strong throwing arm with a quick release. At the plate Heim shows impressively in batting practice but has yet to turn this potential into production on the field. Heim needs copious repetitions and game experience to reach his potential, but his impressive defensive skills give him a chance to develop into a major league catcher.

#9 Tanner Scott LHP

A 6th round selection last summer, the Orioles appear to have stumbled onto a draft day gem in Scott, a left-handed reliever armed with 94-98mph fastball and a hard low-80s slider. Scott, 21-years-old, profiles purely as a reliever but projects to have a plus-plus fastball and an average or slightly better slider, giving him potential to pitch in the back of a bullpen. He should begin this season in A-Ball and could reach Baltimore late in 2017 or 2018.

#8 David Hess RHP

Another quality Day 2 draft pick by Baltimore, the Orioles selected David Hess in the 5th round in 2014 out of Tennessee Tech. The 22-year-old Hess features a solid 4-pitch mix including a 90-94mph fastball with life, along with an 82-84mph slider with sweeping action. Additionally Hess shows a low-70s curveball he can locate in the strike zone, along with the occasional firm, mid-80s changeup.

Although he has four pitches, his future might reside in the bullpen, where his fastball and slider could both become above-average offerings. Hess made a cameo at Double-A Bowie last summer and could reach Baltimore sometime in 2017. Hess is a major league quality arm and looks like a steal for the Orioles.

#7 Chris Lee LHP

Lee was acquired from the Houston Astros for two international bonus slots worth $655,000, and this appears to have been a solid gamble for Baltimore as he blossomed after the trade. The 23-year-old Lee possesses a solid 3-pitch repertoire, featuring a mid-90s fastball, a low-80s slider with bite and a reasonable changeup. Although many scouts believe his future resides in the bullpen, his potential for three fringe-average or better pitches gives him a chance to be a back-end starter in the future.

#6 Ryan Mountcastle 3B

One of my favorite high school prospects in this past draft, Baltimore selected Mountcastle 36th overall from a Florida high school based off his impressive track record in amateur showcases. Mountcastle was a shortstop in high school, but his present 6-3 185lbs frame portends a future shift to third base or the outfield. He possesses noticeable, lightning-fast bat speed from the right-side, which gives him the potential to hit for both average and power. There is risk in his profile, but there is the potential he develops into a league-average third baseman in several years.
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#5 Mychal Givens RHP

Originally drafted by the Orioles as a shortstop in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft, Givens made the fulltime conversion to pitching in 2013 and has flourished on the mound. Although a pure relief profile, the 25-year-old Givens overwhelms hitters with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball and a plus slider from a unique arm-slot. Givens dominated at Double-A Bowie last season before earning a 30 inning audition with the Orioles, posting a 1.80 ERA and 38 strikeouts in the majors. He should begin next season pitching for Baltimore in middle relief and be a major cog in their bullpen the rest of the decade.

#4 Chance Sisco Catcher

Drafted by Baltimore in the 2nd round in 2013, the Orioles immediately transitioned the high school shortstop to behind the plate. His natural athleticism is evident defensively, but the shift has not gone as smoothly as the organization had hoped, as he struggles blocking errant throws in the dirt and receiving pitches. His footwork needs work but Sisco does show a strong arm throwing out runners and works extremely hard to refine his skills. Baltimore still believes the almost 21-year-old will develop into a major league caliber catcher, though most scouts do not agree with their assessment.

At the plate, Sisco can flat out hit, as he possesses a compact left-handed swing with some raw pull power, although he generally prefers to hit line drives all over the field. He has tremendous hand-eye coordination and shows an aptitude to put the barrel on the baseball. There is little question Sisco will hit his way to the major leagues, but his eventual defensive position remains a mystery like who shot JFK.

#3 Hunter Harvey RHP

The son of former major league pitcher Bryan Harvey, Hunter was the Orioles 1st round choice, 22nd overall, in the 2013 MLB Draft. After some minor adjustments to his pitching motion that summer, Harvey blossomed, featuring a 91-95mph fastball, a true hammer curveball with plus potential and the makings of a solid-average changeup. Harvey was shut down late in 2014 and did not take the mound last season, making his health a major concern clouding his potential development. If he can put these injuries behind him, Harvey has #2 starter potential with experience on the mound and the maturation of his arsenal.

#2 Dylan Bundy RHP

Baltimore’s 1st Round selection in 2011, 4th overall, Bundy dominated Low-A Delmarva in early 2012 in route to becoming the near-consensus top pitching prospect in the minor leagues. Unfortunately Bundy has lost much of the past three seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Prior to surgery, Bundy possessed a 94-97mph fastball, a devilish plus-plus cutter, an above-average curveball and above-average changeup, along with excellent command of the strike zone. Bundy enters 2016 out of minor league options, meaning he must make the Opening Day roster or be exposed to waivers. While complications in his development exist, Bundy still has top-of-the-rotation potential if he can ever return to full health.

#1 Jomar Reyes 3B/1B

Reyes began 2015 like an unknown penny-stock and ended the year like the next Twitter, as the 18-year-old punished Low-A pitching to the tune of a .278/.334/.440 batting line with 5 home runs and 27 doubles in 309 at-bats. Reyes is already a physical monster, looking significantly bigger than his listed 6-3 220lbs. Reyes shows above-average or better bat speed, excellent mechanics and balance throughout his simple right-handed swing. He generates loft and back spin off the bat, and the ball sounds different off the bat than others at this level, as if he is swinging a sledgehammer on a “Strength-Tester” carnival game. Like most young power hitters, his swing can get a touch long and he will need to shorten it as he moves through the minors, but he has quick wrists and the raw bat speed to hit professional velocity.

Defensively questions exist about his future defensive position, primarily due to his massive frame at such a precocious age. Reyes flashes a strong arm and reasonable agility for a big man, but his current below-average speed means a position shift is most likely across the diamond at the cold corner.

Regardless of his eventual defensive position, it is rare to find a young hitter with such a good approach and sound swing mechanics at such a young age. If everything develops, Reyes has the potential to be a .280-.300 type hitter with 25-35 home run power in the future. Orioles’ fans must remain patient with this teenager, but Reyes has the chance to be a legitimate middle-of-the-order impact major league hitter at his peak.

https://youtu.be/BfGc48lAPh0

NatsGM Prospect Potpourri – Carlos Cortes, Forest Whitley and Spencer Kieboom

Posted on September 28, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

Carlos Cortes OF/2B Oviedo, Florida – Perfect Game All-American Classic 8/16/15

The MVP of the 2015 Perfect Game All-American Classic, Cortes is quite simply a pure hitter, as his left-handed swing is smoother than a politician. Cortes has quick, loose wrists and excellent bat speed, allowing him to barrel the baseball and spray line drives to all fields. Listed at 5-8 185lbs there are questions how much power Cortes will develop in the future, but his hit tool projects as plus.

Defensively Cortes is particularly unique, as he plays second base right-handed but plays the corner outfield positions as a lefty. He has above-average speed and a strong arm with each, including rumored upper-80s velocity from the left side. In only one viewing it is difficult to confidently project where he future lies defensively, but teams covet this South Carolina commit due to his polished lefty bat. With teams desperately seeking bats in the draft, it would be surprising to see Cortes play college baseball.

Forrest Whitley RHP San Antonio, Texas HS – Under Armour All-America Game 8/15/15

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Spencer Kieboom Catcher Potomac Nationals

Washington’s 5th round pick in 2012, the 24-year-old Kieboom is an absolute pleasure to watch defensively behind the dish. Kieboom possesses a plus throwing arm, a quick release and excellent feet, which allow him to routinely post 1.85-1.93 second pop times to second base. In addition, he is extremely quiet receiving the baseball and shows the ability to block pitches in the dirt. Overall Kieboom profiles as a plus (“60) defensive major league catcher.

Offensively the right-handed hitting Kieboom lags behind his defense, but he does possess skills. He shows good raw pull power in batting practice and the ability to draw a walk, as evidenced by his .352 career on-base percentage. He also has a knack for making contact and does not strike out much, but this does not translate to much hard contact during game action. Perhaps I am optimistic, but I think Kieboom could develop into a “35” hit – “30/35” power major league hitter.

Kieboom should see major league time simply because of his defensive wizardry; however his below-average potential at the plate likely limits his ceiling to a backup capacity. He could begin 2016 in Double-A and reach the major leagues sometime in 2017.

NatsGM Prospect Potpourri – Clint Frazier, Drake Fellows and Avery Tuck

Posted on September 21, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

Clint Frazier

Clint Frazier OF Cleveland Indians

Dates Scouted: 5+ Times in 2015

7-Word Scouting Report: Massive Bat Speed, Potential Above-Average 2-Way CF

Selected by Cleveland 5th overall in the 2013 draft, Frazier spent this season splitting time between center field and right field for High-A Lynchburg. Playing as a 20-year-old this season Frazier hit .285/.377/.465 with 16 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 133 games played.

Offensively Frazier has top-of-the-scale bat speed, lightning-quick wrists and a reasonably compact swing. His balance needs work as his lower-half can get anxious, which causes him to strike out rather frequently. That said he is still only 21-years-old (just turned it) and competed extremely well in the Carolina League this season. The ball sounds different off the bat and he punishes fastballs in the strike zone. Given some additional experience and refinement at the plate, Frazier could develop into a “50/55” hitter with “60” raw power in the big leagues.

Defensively opinions are mixed on his long-term position both due to the presence of Bradley Zimmer and his reasonable athleticism for center field. Frazier has a plus arm and shows good carry on his throws. He possesses good but not elite speed and agility, perhaps making him a better fit in right field than center. Frazier still needs game action to refine his skills, but he profiles as a “50/55” defensive center fielder or “60” corner outfielder.
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As you can read, I really like Clint Frazier. Though I do worry about his inconsistent effort displayed at times and fear potential injury because of how he plays when he does hustle, I try to temper my opinion of him. However, I cannot avoid seeing an above-average two-way centerfielder in Frazier and potential for more if he builds on his monster 2nd half. The mere thought of a future outfield in Cleveland of Michael Brantley, Zimmer and Frazier gives me chills.

Drake Fellows RHP Plainfield, Illinois – Perfect Game All-American Classic 8/16/15

Another in the impressive group of players signed to play collegiately at Vanderbilt, Fellows looks like a monster on the mound, standing 6-5 205lbs with the potential to add more weight in the future. His motion has more movement than one would ideally see, as he turns his back to the hitter and throws somewhat across his body. This provides deception but is difficult to replicate and maintain as a starting pitcher throwing 90+ pitches per outing.

Nevertheless Fellows flashed an impressive 3-pitch repertoire featuring an 88-91mph fastball with excellent sinking action, along with an above-average changeup with arm-side wiggle and a 77-79mph slider with solid tilt. Fellows needs to soften his delivery in order to improve his fastball command and would benefit from increasing his extension toward home during release of the baseball. These critiques aside, Fellows has an outstanding pitchers’ build along with the potential for three average or better pitches. Fellows looks like a top-3 round pick next summer and it will be interesting to see if a team will be able to buy him away from his Vanderbilt commitment.

Avery Tuck RF San Diego, California – Perfect Game All-American Classic 8/16/15

A lithe 6-5 195lbs Tuck is one of the best athletes in this draft class with legitimate five tool potential. Tuck has some excess length in his left-handed swing, but flashes lightning-quick wrists and noticeable bat speed. He has impressive power, especially toward the pull side, and shows the ability to make contact with quality velocity. Tuck will need to shorten his swing as he sees faster velocity but he has a chance to have an average hit tool along with plus raw power down the road. In addition Tuck has solid speed and a strong right-handed arm, allowing him to profile well defensively in right field. He is raw but Tuck has loud tools rarely seen on a baseball diamond and projects as an easy 1st round pick.

Scouting Notes on Washington Nationals Prospect Pedro Severino

Posted on September 18, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

Dates Scouted: 4 Times in 2015, 20+ Times Overall

7-Word Scouting Report: Potential “6” Defensive Catcher, Questionable Bat, Raw

Signed by the Nationals for $55,000 as an international free agent from the Dominican Republic in December 2010, Pedro Severino has quietly progressed through the Nationals’ farm system the past four years. The 22-year-old Severino spent the majority of 2015 as the starting catcher for Double-A Harrisburg, playing in 91 games and batting .246/.288/.331 with 5 home runs and 34 runs batted in. Recently he was promoted to Washington during the September roster expansion to serve as the Nationals 3rd catcher.

Offensively Severino possesses some bat speed but struggles with the length of his right-handed swing, which hinders his ability to make hard contact in game action. During batting practice Severino flashes some raw power to his pull side and an aptitude for putting the bat on the baseball. Severino showed signs of improvement with the bat in the 2nd half of 2014, but the jump to Double-A in 2015 proved difficult. His swing does not have any obvious flaws, except for the length, and he is still young, but the underwhelming production is concerning. Without some swing improvements and turning potential into results, Severino projects as a future “35/40” hitter with “25/30” raw power at the big league level.

Behind the plate Severino has earned the reputation as one of the better defensive catchers currently in the minors. He possesses a plus throwing arm and a quick release, which allows him to routinely post sub-1.95 second pop times to second base. Severino has soft hands and is proficient at framing pitches, but will occasionally stab lazily when receiving the baseball. He is a good athlete for a catcher and shows a knack for blocking errant pitches in the dirt. Listed at 6-2 200lbs Severino looks lean for a position and will need to add mass to withstand the rigors of catching in the major leagues. Severino needs to improve his consistency receiving the baseball but he projects as a “55/60” or above-average to plus defensive catcher in the majors.

Severino is truly enjoyable to watch defensively and his skills behind the plate should allow him to spend more than just this September in the major leagues. He currently profiles as a backup catcher due to his struggles at the plate, with a ceiling as a below-average starting catcher if he develops offensively. I expect Severino to return to Harrisburg to begin 2016 and next season will be vital to his long-term development as a hitter.

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In addition, I reached out to Mick Reinhard, who covers the Harrisburg Senators for PennLive, The Patriot-News, and Mayflies & Big Flies for his thoughts on Severino. Kindly he shared this with me:

“I believe Seve wore down as the season went on. He came out of the chute catching 5 or 6 games per week when the season started and looked phenomenal behind the plate doing it (watch his throws from Opening Night)

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But by the second half of the season, he just looked worn down behind the plate both physically and mentally. His pop times were a lot closer to 2.00 and his focus seemed to wane. Not just more passed balls, but a lot more wild pitches that he could have prevented or should have controlled better. Whereas in April and May he was light on his feet with excellent lateral movement, by July and August it was like they were in cement.

His aggressiveness remained though and that was a positive as a he was quick to show off his arm on pickoff attempts behind runners.”