Scouting Baltimore Orioles Prospect Chris Lee

Posted on April 26, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

Saturday evening I ventured to Prince George’s Stadium to watch the Bowie Baysox host the Washington Nationals Double-A affiliate, the Harrisburg Senators. In addition to a beautiful spring evening and a strong postgame fireworks display, I was treated to a quality pitching matchup, pitting Orioles prospect LHP Chris Lee against a solid Senators’ lineup. Below are my scouting notes on several Baysox players and potential future Orioles.

Chris Lee LHP Bowie Baysox

Acquired by Baltimore from Houston in exchange for two 2014-2015 international bonus slots, Lee was drafted by the Astros in the 4^th round of the 2011 draft. The 23-year-old is listed at 6-3 180lbs with lean legs and a high waist, giving him the potential to add positive weight as he develops physically. Lee is a good athlete who fields his position well and shows particularly strong athleticism for a pitcher.

Lee pitches from a semi-windup and utilizes a three-quarters release point from his lightning-fast left-handed arm. He has a long arm action during his delivery and reaches the infamous “Inverse W” position at foot strike. There is some crossfire in his motion, which causes deception especially for lefties but also hinders his command of the strike zone. Lee repeats his delivery well but could see improvements with some slight tweaks to his motion.

Saturday Lee was featuring a 3-pitch arsenal consisting of a 4-seam fastball, slider and a changeup. His fastball sat 92-94mph most of the evening, touching 96mph several times, with some natural armside movement. Additionally Lee showed a hard-biting 83-86mph slider with strong 1-7 breaking movement inside to righties: at times the pitch more resembled a cutter with the late-breaking movement into righties. Finally Lee threw a handful of firm 82-84mph changeups with decent arm speed but inconsistent results. His command and control are still below-average, although he shows a willingness to work both sides of the plate and likes pitching inside. Overall I feel comfortable putting a “6” on the fastball, a “50/55” on the slider and a “40” on the changeup, along with “45/45” command and control of the strike zone.

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The Orioles were roundly criticized at the time of the deal, but Chris Lee is going to make Baltimore’s front office look quite savvy in the near future. Lee should spend most of 2016 at Double-A Bowie, with the potential to reach the majors late this season or in 2017. There is a legitimate debate between Hunter Harvey, Michal Givens and Chris Lee for Baltimore’s top pitching prospect, but there is no question he is a top-5 prospect in the Orioles’ farm system.

Short Hops

During the 8^th inning when the scouting section often begins checking their phones, right-handed reliever Stefan Crichton entered for Bowie and immediately woke up the scouts, flashing a 92-94mph fastball, touching 96mph, with a low-80s slider. He kept the fastball down in the zone with some natural sink and peppered the zone with strikes. Further, there was some deception in his delivery that made it difficult especially for righties to see the baseball. Drafted in the 23rd round back in 2013 from Texas Christian, Crichton has a chance to develop into a righty specialist. Baltimore has done a nice job in recent years of “creating” relievers and Crichton could be a name to remember down the road.

Former THE NatsGM Show guest and Bowie second baseman Jeff Kemp is struggling to get comfortable at the plate, but impressed with his outstanding defense at second base. He showed a solid arm in turning the double play and made several plays ranging far to his left. The 26-year-old does not have an above-average tool, but his grinder mentality and defensively versatility could allow him to reach the majors in the future.

* Thanks to Matt Wilson and the Bowie Baysox for their gracious hospitality. *

Scouting Washington Nationals Prospect Erick Fedde

Posted on April 18, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

Last Friday evening I braved the traffic south on I-95 to visit Woodbridge, as the Potomac Nationals were hosting the Wilmington Blue Rocks, the High-A affiliate for Kansas City. In particular, I was interested to observe and evaluate the first home start this season for right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde, one of the top prospects in the Nationals’ farm system.

Drafted 18^th overall in the 2014 MLB Draft, Fedde was a projected top-10 prospect before succumbing to injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery mere weeks before draft day. Listed at 6-4 180lbs Fedde possesses an ideal pitchers’ frame with a high waist, long limbs and projection remaining throughout his physique. He is an obvious athlete who possesses good speed and fields his position fairly well.

The 23-year-old Fedde throws from a 3/4s release point and utilizes a big leg-kick through his drop-and-drive delivery. He has a fast arm but there is plenty of effort in his delivery for a starting pitcher. Also he reaches the infamous “reverse W” position in his motion, often seen a precursor to arm injuries. However and most importantly, Fedde repeats his delivery relatively well overall.

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I left the game Friday both extremely cold and impressed with the overall talent of Erick Fedde. Overall I feel comfortable putting future grades of an above-average to plus (55/6) on his fastball, (55/5) on his slider and a (40/45) on his changeup with average to solid-average command of the strike zone. Combined with a repeatable delivery and noticeable athleticism, this package profiles as a low-end #3 or strong #4 starter in a big league rotation, far from a superstar but a solid mid-rotation arm. Fedde could reach Double-A later this season and arrive in Washington sometime late next season.

https://youtu.be/j7wTfs4fo_Q

Scouting D.J. Stewart

Posted on April 12, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

This past Sunday I took advantage of a break in the rainy weather to travel to Hagerstown to watch a doubleheader between the home Suns and the visiting Delmarva Shorebirds. Certainly my eyes were focused on Victor Robles and the Suns, but I was curious to watch Delmarva’s D.J. Stewart, the Orioles 1^st Round pick last summer as well.

Stewart was drafted following a standout career at Florida State with the reputation as a polished collegiate hitter who could move quickly through the minor leagues. Stewart is kindly listed at 6-0 230lbs, with thick legs and a round midsection. This hinders his foot speed, making the 22-year-old already a below-average runner.

At the plate Stewart shows a solid awareness of the strike zone, which allows him to see pitches and produce a healthy walk rate. His left-handed swing has some length to it, and he struggles hitting velocity on the inside half of the plate. Stewart does show some power, particularly to the pull side, though it feels more like his raw strength muscling the ball rather than a product of a quality swing. He does not possess elite bat speed or the sweetest swing, but I can envision a ceiling as a future “45-50/45-50” bat, hitting .260-.270 with 12-17 home runs a year.

Defensively Stewart has a solid, accurate throwing arm, but his poor speed and thick midsection makes him profile as a long-term left fielder. Stewart does show quality instincts in the outfield and a baseball savvy that should allow him to play a passable left field, but unless he reshapes his body, his defense will not play better than mediocre. This puts extreme pressure on his bat to carry him to the major leagues.

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Overall Stewart is an interesting prospect, as he has a keen batting eye and obvious pull power, but his lack of athleticism is uniquely surprising for a 1^st round pick. His ceiling is not particularly high because of his lack of a standout tool, but his ability to draw walks and hit the occasional home run, plus his draft pedigree, should give him a strong chance to reach the major leagues. The best case scenario has him serving as a starting everyday left fielder or the strong-side of a platoon, with the most likely result being Stewart settling in as a backup. This may feel slightly underwhelming for a 1^st rounder, but Stewart should move quickly and could arrive in Baltimore in 2018.

Short Hops

LHP Garrett Cleavinger, Baltimore’s 3^rd round pick last summer, entered in the 5^th inning of Game 1 for the Shorebirds and immediately caught the attention of the entire scouting section. Cleavinger flashed an 89-93mph fastball with some late life, a hammer 73-77mph curveball with hard downward movement and a 82mph changeup. The almost 22-year-old is a thick, well-built, 6-1 210lbs with little projection remaining in his frame. His age, plus his lack of physical projection and a 3^rd pitch, limits his ceiling as a prospect, but Cleavinger is a solid arm not receiving enough attention in Baltimore’s system. With some development, Cleavinger could develop two above-average pitches in his fastball and curveball, allowing him to profile as a future 7^th/8^th inning lefty reliever.

Scouting Victor Robles

Posted on April 11, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

Signed by the Nationals for $225,000 as an international free agent on July 2, 2013, Robles has skyrocketed up prospect rankings in the past year to become a consensus top-5 prospect in the Nationals’ organization. This hype had me eager to make the drive to Hagerstown Sunday to watch a doubleheader between the Suns and the Delmarva Shorebirds.

Immediately one is impressed with the physicality of the 18-year-old Robles, a lithe, projectable 6-0 185lbs athlete. He has long, lean legs and a high waist, portending the ability for him to gain 10-20lbs of quality weight as he matures. Robles has near “70” grade speed, as evidenced by my 4.12 second home to first time and shows true five-tool potential in center field.

A quick-twitch athlete with lightning fast wrists, Robles generates obvious and noticeable bat speed through his right-handed swing. This allows the ball to jump off Robles bat and generate more power than one might initially expect looking at his physique. He is patient at the plate, showing a solid awareness of the strike zone and the ability to recognize spin, especially out of the zone. Robles’ swing, body frame and baseball mannerisms remind me faintly of former Nationals’ player Alfonso Soriano. With the obvious caveats that he is raw and needs at-bats, the potential is there for Robles to develop above-average (or better) hit and power tools at the major league level.

In the field Robles uses his outstanding speed and solid throwing arm to profile as a long-term above-average to plus defender in center field. He showed some difficulty recognizing fly balls off the bat and took some imprecise routes, but was able to outrun his initial instincts to gracefully catch the baseball. Robles needs repetitions and experience to refine his skills but easily projects as a future “60” or plus defensive outfielder.

This was my first in-person view of Robles and I immediately understood the appeal – his exceptional athleticism, combined with his loud tools, allows him to compensate for his raw skills and compete against players several years older. Robles needs polish to his all-around game, as he was picked off of first unnecessarily in one game and as mentioned above, struggles with his initial reads in the outfield. That said Robles is still only 18 and was clearly the most talented player on the field Sunday.
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Robles should spend much of this season at Hagerstown and stands a good chance of receiving a cameo at High-A Potomac late this summer. Assuming reasonably good health, Robles should spend much of 2017 in Double-A and could see the major leagues sometime later in 2018 as only a 21-year-old.

Robles is a special talent who profiles as an impact two-way centerfielder at his peak. His floor is reasonably high as a backup major league outfielder due to his defensive skills and exceptional speed. And if he reaches his ceiling, he could be a .280-.300 hitter with mid-teens power and fringe gold-glove defense in center field. Robles is an easy top-50 prospect in baseball.

Short Hops

Jefry Rodriguez served as the Suns’ starter in Game 1 and showed precisely why he has long been an enigma in the Nationals’ system. He sat 92-94mph with his fastball, touching 95 four times, with some quality armside movement and occasional sinking action. He generally keeps the ball down in the zone with the heater and induced several whiffs with the offering. Unfortunately Rodriguez showed little feel for his offspeed pitches, failing to command his 80-81mph slider or 87mph changeup. In fact, according to my notes he did not produce a strike with his slider (five attempts) or changeup (once) during his appearance. His fastball is a legitimate weapon but until his offspeed pitches, and confidence in them, improve, he will struggle to advance past A-ball.

In Game 2 RHP Joan Baez acted as the starter and the sushi-raw 21-year-old showed promise in his four inning appearance, fighting the cold weather and his release point throughout. Baez is a lean 6-3 190lbs projectable athlete featuring an 89-93mph fastball, touching 95mph, with some good life and natural cutting action. In addition Baez showed an inconsistent, but intriguing, 76-79mph slider with some hard 2-plane bite. The lack of a changeup obviously lends to a future relief profile, but the Nationals are wise to allow him to work as a starter and let him pitch more innings. There is potential here for Baez to develop two above-average offerings in his fastball and slider, which could make him a future asset as a 7^th/8^th inning reliever.