With the 2016 MLB Draft now only 2 days away, NatsGM begins our Draft Week coverage by highlighting several of the top pitchers available in this year’s crop.  Currently the depth of this class is the college pitching outside the top-20 picks and the abundance of high school arms.  While I cannot mention every top name, these are several players who should be selected early in Round 1 Thursday night.

A.J. Puk                                LHP University of Florida

A massively built 6-7 230lbs lefty, A.J. Puk has been on scout’s radar since high school, but he spurned a likely early round selection to attend Florida.  Puk owns a strong 3-pitch repertoire, including a 94-98mph fastball with life, a hard upper-80s slider with tilt and a mid-80s changeup.  His motion is not the cleanest and he has a peculiar arm swing during his delivery, which creates Puk’s biggest weakness, his command and control of the strike zone.  These criticisms aside, when Puk is on, he has a flawless pitcher’s frame and the potential for 2 plus-plus pitches, making him the top prospect in this draft class.  Puk will go inside the top-5 picks and could go 1^st overall.

For more information, please read my recent column on Puk -> http://natsgm.com/2016/05/16/armchair-evaluation-university-of-florida-lhp-a-j-puk/

Jason Groome                   LHP  New Jersey HS

Perhaps the top high school prospect in the 2016 class, Groome immediately catches the eye with his tall frame, long legs and projectable body. Standing 6-6 180lbs Groome has an easy, repeatable delivery with a natural rhythm throughout and gets quality extension toward home. Groome also impresses with how effortless he achieves his velocity, sitting 92-95mph with strong command of his fastball and showing off a sweeping 73-75mph curveball. In addition Groome also throws a mid-70s changeup with outstanding deception, replicating his fastball arm speed perfectly.

There have been questions about Groome’s maturity this spring, perhaps the only negative in his profile.  Groome possesses everything one would seek in a top high school pitching prospect and should not escape the first ten picks.

Riley Pint                             RHP  Kansas HS

Possessing a projectable, dreamy 6-4 192lbs frame, Riley Pint looks the part of an Ace when he toes the rubber.  First and foremost Pint is known for his exceptional velocity, sitting upper-90s and often hitting triple digits with some arm-side movement.  In addition to the fastball, Pint shows both a slider and a curveball, along with a potentially plus upper-80s changeup.  Like most high school pitchers, his motion needs refining, but Pint has electric top-of-the-rotation stuff that cannot be taught and should be drafted inside the top-10 picks.
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Dakota Hudson                 RHP  Mississippi State University

After an impressive performance last summer on Cape Cod, Hudson has continued to build off that success this season for the Bulldogs.  Listed at 6-5 225lbs, Hudson possesses an ideal pitcher’s frame, along with a strong 4-pitch arsenal.  Hudson’s fastball sits 93-97mph with electric life, a nasty upper-80s cutter, a quality curveball and a changeup.  His command is below to fringe-average currently, the biggest knock in his profile.  However, his cutter might be the best pitch in this draft class, and as likely the 2^nd best college pitcher available, he should go inside the top-15 picks.

Jordan Sheffield                RHP  Vanderbilt University

Another in the long line of Vanderbilt starting pitchers, Sheffield has long been known to scouts, as he was a potential 1^st round pick in high school.  Sheffield possesses a lightning-quick arm, which produces a mid-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and an impressive changeup. Sheffield does have warts, as physically he is a smallish 6-0 180lbs with a previous Tommy John surgery on his resume, and he struggles to command the strike zone.  However, the athleticism and excellent arm speed are easily evident, plus his potential for three above-average to plus pitches.  Sheffield should continue the Commodores streak of 1^st round starting pitchers, going off the board quickly outside the top-10.

Zack Burdi                           RHP  University of Louisville

Burdi served as the closer for Louisville this season, dominating the competition with his 100+ mph fastball and powerful high-80s slider.  Furthermore Burdi shows a quality changeup and his motion does not scream “reliever”, leading teams to wonder if he can be developed as starter as a professional.  The team that believes in him as a starter will likely draft him around #15-#30, with a backup plan being a future as a late-inning reliever.

Eric Lauer                             LHP  Kent State University

One of the top pitchers on Cape Cod last summer, Lauer is a polished lefty with a quality 4-pitch repertoire, including a low-90s fastball, an average or above-average curveball and slider, plus a fringe-average changeup.  His physical build portends a durable workhorse capable of pitching 180+ innings per year and his simple, repeatable motion should allow him to pound the strike zone. The lack of elite velocity or plus off-speed pitch likely limits his ceiling, but Lauer projects as a solid #3 or #4 starter.

Others of Note: (College) T.J. Zeuch RHP University of Pittsburgh, Connor Jones RHP University of Virginia, Robert Tyler RHP University of Georgia, Logan Shore RHP University of Florida & Anthony Kay LHP University of Connecticut.  (High School) Braxton Garrett LHP, Matt Manning RHP, Ian Anderson RHP, Forest Whitley RHP

Saturday afternoon I took advantage of the rainy weather outside to watch the visiting Vanderbilt Commodores play the host University of Florida Gators.  Considering the 2016 MLB Draft is less than a month away, I wanted to seize this opportunity to watch two top-10 teams loaded with potential early round draft prospects.  In particular, I wanted to perform an Armchair Evaluation of Florida’s Saturday starter, and projected top draft choice, LHP A.J. Puk.

Facing a difficult and talented Vanderbilt lineup, Puk pitched 6 impressive innings, allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits and 2 walks against 11 strikeouts.  Puk threw 110 pitches against the 23 batters he faced, (64 strikes / 46 balls), inducing 3 ground outs and 4 fly outs.  Essentially Puk made one mistake, allowing only a solo home run in the 2^nd inning to talented freshman Julian Infante.

The monstrous 6-7 230lbs. Puk utilizes a semi-windup, with a simple side step that leads into his high leg kick and delivery toward home.  Puk throws from a three-quarter to high three-quarter arm slot and has a noticeably fast arm.  His immense size, along with a reasonable amount of excess movement in his motion, causes him to struggle repeating his delivery.  Puk has a lengthy arm stroke with a mild arm-wrap, which further limits his ability to command the strike zone.

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This outing gave a terrific synopsis of Puk as a prospect, as his strengths and weaknesses were fully exposed by Vanderbilt.  The “starter kit” with Puk is quite impressive as a lefty with legitimate mid-to-high 90s velocity, a mountainous frame ideal for a starting pitcher and the potential for two plus or better pitches.  Unfortunately his size works against him a bit, as he presently struggles to repeat his motion and arm slot.  In addition, his lack of confidence and the development of his changeup could hinder his ability to get professional right-handed hitters out.  However, his mechanical issues and changeup both should improve with professional coaching and repetitions.

His present velocity, frame and potential for two dominant pitches give him a floor of an impact late-inning reliever.  If he can improve his command of the strike zone and his changeup, the ceiling exists for Puk to develop into a #2 or #3 starter in the major leagues.  Puk should be an easy top-15 pick in next month’s draft, with a chance he goes inside the top-3.

NatsGM Draft Projection ->        Top 5-10 Overall