Armchair Evaluation – Washington Nationals 1st Round Pick Dane Dunning

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Mere days after being selected in the 1st round, 29th overall, by the Washington Nationals, University of Florida right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning found himself on the mound in a deciding game against Florida State, with the winner going to Omaha and the College World Series.  Eager to see what type of talent the Nationals added to their organization, I decided to do an Armchair Evaluation of Dunning’s recent outing on June 13th.

Due to the depth of the Florida pitching staff, the 21-year-old Dunning has spent most of his 3 years in Gainesville starting for the Gators during the midweek and pitching in relief on the weekend.  However, he would serve as the Friday starter for approximately 90% of college teams and would pitch in the weekend rotation for every other team besides the loaded Florida Gators.  Prior to this season he struggled with his command and control of the strike zone, but made major strides as a junior, posting 85 strikeouts against only 12 walks in 75 innings pitched this season.

Against a stout Florida State lineup, Dunning entered the game in the 4th inning in relief of A.J. Puk and pitched 4.1 innings, allowing 0 runs on 4 hits and 0 walks against 5 strikeouts.  Dunning needed 67 pitches to get these 13 outs (47 strikes & 20 balls), getting 5 fly outs and 3 ground outs.

There comes a time when you need to take the advice of your doctor, or can go for medication like discover content cialis samples, cialis etc. The experts are of an opinion that it should be taken and vardenafil vs viagra should promptly consult health physician. It’s time to free cialis sample recover the spice of your love life. Edegra has been made up of sildenafil Citrate, the most canada viagra cialis significant cum common ingredient used in manufacturing Tadalista is Tadalafil. The 6-3 205lbs Dunning has an ideal pitcher’s frame with some projection remaining, especially in his lower half.  He features a semi-windup with a high leg kick, giving him excellent momentum and extension toward home plate.  Dunning throws from a three-quarters release point and has noticeable arm speed.  He has a relatively clean, simple motion with excellent balance and repeats the delivery well.

In this appearance Dunning showed an impressive 3-pitch arsenal, featuring a 91-95mph fastball (according to the television radar gun) with extreme movement to his arm-side.  In fact, several times I misidentified his fastball as a changeup because of the extreme movement and sinking action.  Additionally, Dunning showed an impressive 78-84mph slider with 12-6 movement, which induced several swings-and-misses.  Finally he threw two mid-80s changeups with some sinking movement resembling his fastball, and shows promise due to the 10+mph separation.  Dunning shows average or better command and control of the strike zone, along with an aggressive attitude toward attacking hitters.  Overall, I would put a “60” or better on the fastball, particularly due to the movement, a “50/55” on the slider and an “Incomplete/45” on the changeup.

After watching this appearance by Dane Dunning, I find myself rather fired up that the Nationals were able to select someone of his talent at pick #29.  He pitches extremely well off his fastball, an easy plus offering, and his slider was more impressive in this outing than it was by reputation pre-draft.  He will need to refine both his off-speed pitches if he wants to be a starter, but the potential exists for Dunning to have a plus fastball and two average to above-average off-speed pitches.

Assuming he stays healthy and can strengthen his arm for the rigors of pitching 180+ innings per season, Dunning projects as a strong #3/#4 starter, with the floor of a late-inning reliever.  Considering his high floor and reasonably high ceiling, Dunning was an astute pick by the Nationals at the end of Round 1.

The Washington Nationals Select Kieboom, Dunning and Neuse on Day 1 of the MLB Draft

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The Washington Nationals used Day 1 of the MLB Draft to add to their collection of talent in their farm system, choosing high school infielder Carter Kieboom, college pitcher Dane Dunning and college infielder Sheldon Neuse.  The Nationals forfeited their original 1st round pick as compensation for signing Daniel Murphy, but received picks in return for the losses of Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann.  This left Washington picking number #28, #29 and #58 on Thursday evening.

Carter Kieboom, the younger brother of fellow Nationals prospect Spencer Kieboom and University of Georgia’s Trevor Kieboom, is the top prospect in this baseball family as a middle infielder with an impressive bat.  At the plate Kieboom shows a patient, mature approach with some natural feel for the barrel.  There is explosiveness in his body and some natural loft in his swing, giving him a chance to hit for both average and some power.  Defensively Kieboom has improved enough this spring to give scouts the opinion he could stay at shortstop and will certainly stay on the left side of the infield.  He has a quick first step and solid agility, plus excellent instincts, allowing him to profile at shortstop.  If he reaches his ceiling, I had a scout put a “Mike Bordick comparison” on Kieboom.

With their 2nd 1st round selection, 29th overall, the Nationals selected University of Florida right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning.  Due to the depth of the Florida pitching staff, Dunning has spent most of his time with the Gators starting during the midweek and pitching in relief on the weekend.  The 6-3 200lbs Dunning has an ideal pitcher’s frame with some projection remaining, especially in his lower half.  He has a relatively clean and simple delivery, which he repeats well.  He possesses a 3-pitch repertoire, featuring a 91-95mph fastball with extreme arm-side movement, a slider and a changeup.  He has shown a feel for both off-speed offerings, though the changeup seems more advanced than the slider.  In the past Dunning has struggled with his command and control of the strike zone, but this season he made major advances in this area, halving his walk rate as a junior.  He pitches off his fastball, an easy plus pitch, but will need to develop his changeup and slider if he wants to be a long-term starter.

In Round 2, 58th overall, Washington selected University of Oklahoma shortstop and right-handed pitcher Sheldon Neuse.  One of the top two-way players in college baseball, Neuse destroyed college baseball this year with a .369/.465/.646 batting line with 10 home runs and 16 doubles, while also posting a 1.40 ERA and 5 saves in 14 appearances on the mound.  But Neuse will begin his career as a hitter, where he shows a mature approach at the plate and the ability to get on-base.  His swing can get long at times, but there is some bat speed and barrel awareness to Neuse’s game, allowing one to dream on him developing an average hit tool and average power.  Defensively he will likely move off shortstop, as his below-average speed and athleticism are subpar for the position.  However, he has a strong arm and profiles well at third base.  There are some rough edges to his game, but Neuse has a chance to develop into a league average regular at the hot corner, with the backup plan of moving him to the mound if he fails to hit.

On Day 1 of the MLB Draft, the Nationals did a nice job of adding to their inventory of talent, drafting two players from major college programs and a high school player well-known on the showcase circuit.  I have watched both Kieboom and Dunning extensively – they were both solid value picks late in Round 1 and could have been selected several slots earlier.  Personally I had Louisville catcher Will Smith and Mississippi State RHP Dakota Hudson ranked ahead of Kieboom and Dunning and would have taken them with those picks, but that is a minor quibble.

Additionally I like the Neuse pick in Round 2, although he does not seem like the typical Day 1 Mike Rizzo pick, being that he is not an elite athlete and does not possess a high ceiling.  I might have preferred Washington gamble on Vanderbilt OF Bryan Reynolds or Ohio State OF Ronnie Lawson, but Neuse was a solid value at #58.

In conclusion Washington made three quality, shrewd selections on the first day of the MLB Draft.  While I might have preferred other picks as mentioned at each slot, it is difficult to argue with the job the Nationals’ organization did Thursday night.

NatsGM Overall Grade ->  Solid B

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Round 3 – Kyle Funkhouser RHP University of Louisville

Round 4 – Garrett Hampson SS Long Beach State

Round 5 – Devin Smeltzer LHP San Jacinto JC

Round 6 – Connor Jones LHP University of Georgia

Round 7 – Mitchell Jordan RHP Stetson University

Round 8 – Vincent Jackson OF University of Tennessee

Round 9 – Boomer White 3B Texas A&M

Round 10 – Curtiss Pomeroy RHP Georgetown University

Mocking The MLB Draft – Projecting the Washington Nationals 1st Round Picks

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Happy 2016 MLB Draft Day! The Washington Nationals select #28, #29 and #58 this evening and are poised to add significant talent to their already solid farm system.  In lieu of writing another mock draft, today I will highlight several players who could be available to Washington when they are on the board in Round 1 and foolishly will predict whom the Nationals will select.

Names To Remember

Kyle Funkhouser              RHP       University of Louisville

A Scott Boras client, Funkhouser was drafted last summer by the Dodgers 35th overall but failed to sign and returned to Louisville for his senior season, where he scuffled much of the year.  When he is on, Funkhouser features a 92-95mph fastball with excellent life, along with an average curveball and slider, plus a fringy changeup.  His stuff, as with his command, will waver during and between starts, making his inconsistency rather maddening.

His supporters see a relatively easy to sign senior with some remaining potential and a future back-end starter.  Conversely his detractors see the poor command, “good” off-speed pitches and a likely future in the bullpen.  While I am not confident projecting Funkhouser inside the top-30 picks, I feel safe predicting his floor is Washington’s 2nd round pick, 58th overall.

Eric Lauer                            LHP        Kent State University

Lauer is a polished lefty with a quality 4-pitch repertoire, including a low-90s fastball, an average or above-average curveball and slider, plus a fringe-average changeup.  He has a solid, physical build, with some projection remaining, allowing scouting to profile him as a workhorse capable of pitching 180+ innings per year.  Lauer’s simple, repeatable motion allows him to consistently epper the strike zone. The lack of elite velocity or plus off-speed pitch limits his ceiling, but Lauer projects as a strong #4 starter.

Drew Mendoza                 SS/3B    Florida HS

Another Scott Boras client, Mendoza has naturally been linked to the Nationals in many mock drafts.  Mendoza possesses a sweet, compact left-handed swing with solid barrel skills and projects to develop power as he matures.  He was a shortstop during high school, but because of his relatively large, thick frame, most assume he moves to third base as a professional.  I have heard a “poor man’s Kyle Seagar” on Mendoza, which would make him an intriguing pick late in Round 1.

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The starting catcher for the University of Virginia, Thaiss possesses raw power to all fields in his left-handed swing and scouts also project him to hit for average in pro ball.  The real question with Thaiss involves his defense – while his arm is strong and he can catch-and-throw reasonably well, his skills blocking pitches and receiving could use work.  He has improved in his three years in college and has a strong work ethic, so teams believe he can stay behind the plate for the long-term.  If not, however, Thaiss’ bat does not profile well at first base and I am not certain he is athletic enough to play the outfield.  In a draft light on polished bats, Thaiss is an easy top-30 pick.

THE NatsGM Predictions ->        

#28         Alec Hansen RHP University of Oklahoma           

Hansen begin the year on the short list to go 1st overall, as he possesses a prototypical pitcher’s frame, a mid-to-high-90s fastball and will show a plus slider, curveball, and changeup at times.  Unfortunately he struggles with his command of the strike zone, and suffered through a difficult draft year, including being banished to the bullpen mid-year.  He returned late in the season and performed well, giving scouts who want to believe in him a reason to continue liking his potential.

In addition Hansen does have some injury issues in his past as well, making Hansen a true boom-or-bust prospect.  That said, it is nearly impossible to find a “starter kit” with this type of potential typically at #28, and his upside could be too much for Washington to pass on.  I have not heard him linked at all to Washington, but this just feels like a Rizzo pick.

#29         Will Smith Catcher University of Louisville

Will Smith has begun flying up draft boards this spring, as Louisville has several top prospects and scouts have watched him handle the impressive Cardinals’ pitching staff.  Smith is a former shortstop with good athleticism and a solid throwing arm, making him a quality athlete for a catcher.  He is still a bit raw to the finer points of catching (blocking, receiving, calling a game) but scouts are sold he will remain behind the plate as a professional.

At the plate Smith shows good contact skills and the ability to draw a walk, as evidenced by his .500+ OBP this season and 7% strikeout rate for the year.  He has a bit of power to his pull side, but he does not project to hit more than 7-12 homers at peak.  He has the potential to be an average hitter and above-average defender, making him quite a value here at #29.

Who do you think Washington will select tonight?  Leave your predictions in the comment’s section!

Scouting the MLB Draft – Spotlighting the Top Hitters

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The 2016 MLB Draft commences tomorrow night, which is like my birthday, Christmas and New Year’s Eve all rolled into one grand three day marathon.  As a reminder, I will be Live Blogging all three days and 40 rounds of the draft, so PLEASE join me with your questions, comments and hot takes.

Yesterday we highlighted several of the top pitching prospects available in this year’s draft class – today we continue our draft coverage by examining some of the top hitters who will be selected early in Round 1.

Top Bats

Kyle Lewis           OF  Mercer University

Following an outstanding campaign last summer on Cape Cod, Lewis has continued to dominate the Southern Conference this spring.  The right-handed hitting Lewis has massive raw power to all fields, and although there is swing-and-miss in his game, most scouts believe he will hit in pro ball.  Lewis is not a blazing runner, leading to questions if he will stay in center field long-term.  Most likely Lewis moves to right field, where he fringe-average speed and strong arm profile well.  There are questions in Lewis’s game, particularly the level of competition he has faced, but he has the potential to be terrific major league outfielder in a few years.

Corey Ray            OF  University of Louisville

Ray has been a vital three-year starter for Louisville, acting as a major cog in their lineup.  The left-handed hitting Ray has quick wrists and healthy bat speed, leading scouts to project him to hit for both average and power at the next level.  The real question with Ray involves his future defensive position, as his fringe-average arm could push him to left field as a professional.  Nevertheless, his track record of performance and skills at the plate should have him drafted in the top-8 picks.

Blake Rutherford             OF California HS

Rutherford entered the year as the top prep hitter in this class, as he has excellent bat speed in his left-handed swing, showing the ability to barrel the baseball and hit for power.  In an effort to hit for power this spring, Rutherford has not dominated the competition as expected, causing scouts to have some prospect fatigue with him.  Defensively there are questions if the 6-2 200lbs Rutherford will stay in center field in the future, though rumors are he improved as a senior.  His detractors see a 19-year-old with limited projection remaining and some defensive questions, while his fans see a polished hitter who plays a solid center field.  The team that believes in him should draft him inside the top-15 picks on Thursday.

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The debate in California among scouts this spring has revolved around which outfielder they prefer, Blake Rutherford or Mickey Moniak.  Moniak is a lithe, projectable athlete with above-average speed and is a sure-fire long-term center fielder.  At the plate Moniak peppers the gaps with impressive barrel control and scouts believe he will generate power as he matures physically.  His bat is not as polished as Rutherford’s and does not project for the same power, but his overall impressive assortment of tools and projectable body will have him drafted inside the top-12.

Nick Senzel         3B  University of Tennessee

The MVP of the Cape Cod League last summer, Senzel is a joy to watch swing the bat.  A right-handed hitter, Senzel has a quick, linear swing which produces plenty of hard contact and doubles in the gaps.  Scouts question how much power he will hit for as a professional, though his displays in batting practice have some scouts projecting average power for him.  Defensively he has silenced critics this spring, playing a solid third base for Tennessee and even moving to shortstop for several weeks during the season.  A few baseball people have put a right-handed hitting Bill Mueller “comp” on Senzel.

Zack Collins        Catcher  University of Miami

The left-handed hitting Collins has easy plus power and displays it both in batting practice and during games.  He works counts well, draws walks, and shows the ability to barrel the baseball.  While he lacks his pure power, the comparisons with last year’s #4 pick Kyle Schwarber are evident.

Defensively Collins lags behind his bat, though he has shown marked improvement this spring.  He has a solid arm, but struggles receiving the ball and with his footwork.  Scouts like the improvements he has shown behind the plate, leading some teams to believe he can develop into a passable catcher with proper coaching.

Matt Thaiss        Catcher  University of Virginia

Similarly to Collins, questions surround Thaiss’ defensive ability behind the plate, as he is not as fluid blocking pitches or quiet receiving the baseball as one would generally like from their catcher.  However, he has a strong arm and possesses an excellent work ethic, leading some to believe he can stay at catcher.  That said, the strength of his left-handed bat is what will get him drafted in Round 1, as he has plus raw power to all fields and a keen batting eye.  The team confident in developing and refining his catching skills will likely pick Thaiss in the 2nd half of Round 1.

Others of Note: (College)  Bryan Reynolds OF Vanderbilt, Buddy Reed OF University of Florida, Chris Okey Catcher Clemson, Will Craig 3B Wake Forest & Anfernee Grier OF Auburn – (High School)  Delvin Perez SS, Taylor Trammell OF, Josh Lowe 3B, Nolan Jones SS/3B & Alex Kirilloff OF