NatsGM Prospect Potpourri – Clint Frazier, Drake Fellows and Avery Tuck

Clint Frazier

Clint Frazier

Clint Frazier OF Cleveland Indians

Dates Scouted:   5+ Times in 2015

7-Word Scouting Report:    Massive Bat Speed, Potential Above-Average 2-Way CF

Selected by Cleveland 5th overall in the 2013 draft, Frazier spent this season splitting time between center field and right field for High-A Lynchburg.  Playing as a 20-year-old this season Frazier hit .285/.377/.465 with 16 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 133 games played.

Offensively Frazier has top-of-the-scale bat speed, lightning-quick wrists and a reasonably compact swing.  His balance needs work as his lower-half can get anxious, which causes him to strike out rather frequently.  That said he is still only 21-years-old (just turned it) and competed extremely well in the Carolina League this season.  The ball sounds different off the bat and he punishes fastballs in the strike zone.  Given some additional experience and refinement at the plate, Frazier could develop into a “50/55” hitter with “60” raw power in the big leagues.

Defensively opinions are mixed on his long-term position both due to the presence of Bradley Zimmer and his reasonable athleticism for center field.  Frazier has a plus arm and shows good carry on his throws.  He possesses good but not elite speed and agility, perhaps making him a better fit in right field than center.  Frazier still needs game action to refine his skills, but he profiles as a “50/55” defensive center fielder or “60” corner outfielder.
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As you can read, I really like Clint Frazier.  Though I do worry about his inconsistent effort displayed at times and fear potential injury because of how he plays when he does hustle, I try to temper my opinion of him.  However, I cannot avoid seeing an above-average two-way centerfielder in Frazier and potential for more if he builds on his monster 2nd half.  The mere thought of a future outfield in Cleveland of Michael Brantley, Zimmer and Frazier gives me chills.

Drake Fellows RHP Plainfield, Illinois – Perfect Game All-American Classic 8/16/15

Another in the impressive group of players signed to play collegiately at Vanderbilt, Fellows looks like a monster on the mound, standing 6-5 205lbs with the potential to add more weight in the future. His motion has more movement than one would ideally see, as he turns his back to the hitter and throws somewhat across his body. This provides deception but is difficult to replicate and maintain as a starting pitcher throwing 90+ pitches per outing.

Nevertheless Fellows flashed an impressive 3-pitch repertoire featuring an 88-91mph fastball with excellent sinking action, along with an above-average changeup with arm-side wiggle and a 77-79mph slider with solid tilt. Fellows needs to soften his delivery in order to improve his fastball command and would benefit from increasing his extension toward home during release of the baseball. These critiques aside, Fellows has an outstanding pitchers’ build along with the potential for three average or better pitches. Fellows looks like a top-3 round pick next summer and it will be interesting to see if a team will be able to buy him away from his Vanderbilt commitment.

Avery Tuck RF San Diego, California – Perfect Game All-American Classic 8/16/15

A lithe 6-5 195lbs Tuck is one of the best athletes in this draft class with legitimate five tool potential. Tuck has some excess length in his left-handed swing, but flashes lightning-quick wrists and noticeable bat speed. He has impressive power, especially toward the pull side, and shows the ability to make contact with quality velocity. Tuck will need to shorten his swing as he sees faster velocity but he has a chance to have an average hit tool along with plus raw power down the road. In addition Tuck has solid speed and a strong right-handed arm, allowing him to profile well defensively in right field. He is  raw but Tuck has loud tools rarely seen on a baseball diamond and projects as an easy 1st round pick.

Armchair Evaluation – Scouting The 2015 MLB Futures Game

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This past Sunday Major League Baseball presented the 2015 MLB Futures Game, the 17th edition of this exhibition contest and easily the most enjoyable part of the All-Star Game festivities each year. Baseball America selects the 25-man rosters for both the US Team and the World Team: as the name might suggest the US Team is comprised of players born in the United States and the World Team of players born outside the country. Each organization must have at least one representative in attendance and teams are generally extremely accommodating in sending their top prospects to participate in this event.

The setup of this game often favors the pitchers, as they typically only pitch 1 inning and thus only throw their best pitches trying to outdo one other. Nonetheless this game gives scouts and prospect-nerds a unique opportunity to watch the top pitching and hitting prospects compete against one another. Somewhat unusual for a prospect showcase, the US Team manufactured an offensive explosion in the middle innings on their way to a 10-1 victory over the World Team. These are my observations from this year’s Futures Game.

Mr. Giolito May 2014 Lucas Giolito RHP Washington Nationals

The starting pitcher for the US Team despite being the youngest pitcher on the roster, this honor was bestowed on Giolito because of his current status as the top pitching prospect in baseball. And Giolito did little to disappoint Sunday, pitching 2 innings while allowing two meek hits against one strikeout over his 20 pitches and six batters faced. Giolito flashed all three of his pitches in this outing, showing his 96-98mph fastball which he commanded to the inside half of the plate, along with his devastating mid-80s curveball and impressive high-70s changeup. He was obviously eager to make an impression as a few of his first offerings sailed high and out of the strike zone, but this is a minor quibble with an otherwise excellent performance.

The Nationals have been taking their time with Giolito in his development through the minors, but his recent success and this impressive outing could force them to promote him before the end of the summer. Giolito still needs minor league refinement, but if he can stay healthy, he has a chance to be a true top-of-the-rotation pitcher perhaps as soon as late 2016.

Trea Turner SS Washington Nationals

Trea Turner Entering the game as a replacement for Phillies prospect J.P. Crawford, Turner immediately made an impact, ripping a double to left field in the sixth inning and hitting a stand-up triple to center in the eighth. Offensively Turner was able to flash all of his tools in these two at-bats, including his top-of-the-scale speed, above-average hit tool and surprising power from a middle infielder.

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Zach Davies RHP Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles lone representative in this contest, Davies entered the game for the US Team in the Top of the 8th and flashed a solid 89-90mph fastball with excellent command along with a devastating plus changeup. Unfortunately Davies only threw 10 pitches against the 3 batters he faced, allowing an infield single against a strikeout and a routine groundout to third base. Despite the brief appearance, I was extremely impressed with the way Davies attacked opposing hitters with his fastball and the quality of his changeup. In a farm system relatively shallow especially at the upper levels, Davies is a prospect who should receive more attention as a future backend major league starter.

Additional Scouting Notes

Chicago Cubs catching prospect Kyle Schwarber has long been known as a terrific hitter but most scouts have questioned whether his defensive skills would improve enough to be a major league quality catcher. Early in the game I was impressed with his ability to handle the elite velocity from Giolito, along with flashing a 2.00 second pop time in throwing out Ketel Marte in the 1st inning. He did look a little lazy on a passed ball in the 3rd inning off Amir Garrett, although one could argue it was a mix-up of the signals with an unfamiliar hurler. Nonetheless, Schwarber looked better and quieter defensively, showing he has made improvements thus far in 2015. Oh and he also ripped a triple to drive in two runs in the 3rd inning in route to winning the MVP award for this year’s game.

Speaking of Cincinnati’s Amir Garrett, he quickly caught my attention entering the game in the 3rd inning and flashing 93-95mph velocity from the left side. As a representative of the host city, it was obvious Garrett was pumped up to impress the fans, which hurt his command and caused him to allow three hits and a run on this outing. However, as a raw former collegiate basketball player, Garrett has the athleticism to repeat his delivery and a strong repertoire. He needs innings and experience on the mound, but this is a prospect that could blow up in the next 12-24 months, if he has not done so already.

Chicago White Sox RHP Francellis Montas appears to have won the award for largest velocity, hitting 102mph on the stadium radar gun multiple times in his appearance. He struggles with his command and with his changeup, but his velocity and solid slider could make him a future closer.

Finally Kansas City SS Raul Mondesi showed off his incredible speed, stealing an infield hit off third baseman Richie Shaffer in the 8th inning by running a 4.00 second time home to first – for the non-scouts, this is an easy “7” or double plus time. Still only 19-years-old Mondesi is holding his own at Double-A this season and projects to be a future above-average two-way shortstop in the major leagues.

Highway to Hagerstown – Scouting Future Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals

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Wednesday morning I took advantage of the beautiful weather, along with a generous offer from my sister-in-law to watch the dogs, to drive to Hagerstown to watch the Suns, Washington’s Low-A affiliate, do battle with the Delmarva Shorebirds, Baltimore’s farm team.

Overall I was impressed by the quality of play of each team, especially considering it was a “get away” game, and the number of  prospects on both teams.  These are my scouting notes on a few of the many impressive players from this contest, a game Delmarva rallied to win 5-4.

Luis Reyes  RHP  Hagerstown Suns

Luis Reyes RHP Hagerstown Suns

Starting for Hagerstown Wednesday morning was 20-year-old pitcher Luis Reyes, making his third career start at the Low-A level. Immediately I was impressed with Reyes long legs, high waist, and the amount of projection remaining in his “listed” 6-2 175lbs frame. With a baby-face like Justin Bieber, Reyes should fill out with additional muscle as he matures.

Reyes was sitting 87-91mph with his fastball, touching 92mph three times, with life on it and he command it well both arm-side and toward the bottom of the strike zone. Toward the lower velocity readings, his fastball would also show some sinking action. Furthermore Reyes flashed a 73-74mph curveball which needs development, as he slows his arm to help the torque on the pitch. Finally he also showed a few 82-84mph changeups with some natural sinking action toward his arm-side.

Signed as a 17-year-old from the Dominican Republic, Reyes is another product of Washington’s recent improved efforts signing players internationally. While he is extremely raw and needs significant development to his off-speed offerings, Reyes is an intriguing, projectable young arm. I would expect the Nationals to have Reyes focus on fastball command this summer, along with becoming more comfortable throwing his changeup and curveball. This is a nice sleeper prospect in Washington’s system and I am curious to observe his development this season in Hagerstown.

Jomar Reyes  3B  Hagerstown Suns

Jomar Reyes

Maybe he began the 2015 season somewhat unknown in prospect circles, but Reyes’ stock is about to skyrocket like an underpriced IPO on Wall Street. Reyes is already a physically built man, looking much larger than his listed 6-3 220lbs. Reyes flashes a strong arm both pregame and during game action but his sheer mass makes me question if he will have the agility or speed to remain at third base as he continues to mature physically. He has below-average current speed, meaning a position shift is most likely across the diamond rather than the outfield.
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However, regardless of his eventual defensive position, Reyes is a hitter and his bat will always be his calling card. Reyes shows above-average bat speed, good mechanics and balance throughout his simple right-handed swing. He generates loft and back spin off the bat, and the ball sounds different off the bat than others at this level, as if he is swinging a sledgehammer on a “Strength-Tester” carnival game. Like most young power hitters, his swing can get a touch long and he will need to shorten it as he moves through the minors, but he has quick wrists and the raw bat speed to hit professional velocity.

Although he is still raw and there are legitimate questions about his eventual position, it is rare to find a right-handed hitter with a good approach, mechanics, and swing at such a young age. Orioles’ fans should remain patient with Reyes, as he should move level to level in his journey towards Baltimore and will need 3+ years in the minors to be big-league ready. That said, aside from Dylan Bundy, Hunter Harvey, and Chance Sisco, no player in the Baltimore system has a bigger “upside” than Reyes and one could argue he is currently a top-5 prospect in their farm system.

Jonah Heim  Catcher  Hagerstown Suns

Orioles Catcher Jonah Heim

This winter while most people may have caught the flu, I contracted a case of “I’ve fallen in love with great defensive catching prospects” – My latest strain of this wonderful virus is Orioles prospect Jonah Heim.

Heim is much taller than average catchers, but he does a masterful job of framing his body to give the pitcher a large target and the umpire an excellent view of the pitch. His squat does leave him slightly vulnerable to wild pitches low and inside, but he is agile enough to adequately block these pitches in the dirt. I was amazed at how square and quiet he kept his body as he received the pitch and his hands are exceptionally soft and gentle as he catches the ball. In addition, Heim showed quick feet and a strong arm, flashing a 1.94 second pop time to second base in throwing out an opposing baserunner. He still needs polish behind the dish and to improve his blocking abilities, but Heim projects as a plus defensive catcher at the big league level.

Heim’s offensive skills currently lag behind his defense, but the 19-year-old switch hitting catcher showed some good bat speed from the left side Wednesday, crushing a double and hitting a fly ball to the wall in straight away center field for a loud out. He still struggles with strikeouts and recognizing breaking pitches, but he has made noticeable strides to shorten his lefty swing.

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Like every teenager he needs at-bats to gain experience and refine his approach and swing, but a switch-hitting catcher with plus defensive potential is an outstanding starter kit for a prospect. If one believes Chance Sisco is destined for another defensive position, Jonah Heim is clearly the best catching prospect currently in the Orioles’ system. I do not expect him to move quickly but I would be stunned if he did not develop into a major leaguer in the future.

An Inside Look at Baseball Scouting with CJ Wittmann Jr from Baseball Prospectus

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One of the many great things about the development of the internet for baseball fans is the extreme rise in the coverage of minor league prospects. Fifteen years ago it was Baseball America and perhaps one or two other places providing analysis of the minors. Today dozens of websites specialize in reporting on young players, in addition to the proliferation of blogs providing additional information on these individuals.

Unfortunately a negative consequence to this additional exposure is the rise of people calling themselves baseball scouts and stating they are “scouting”rather than in actuality “observing” games. I feel like this can be disrespectful to the individuals who earn a paycheck working in baseball.

Therefore, in the interest of offering some insight into the hard work baseball scouts go through each day, I reached out to rising superstar and Baseball Prospectus Prospect Team member C.J. Wittmann Jr. to explain what a scout does and the process of scouting prospects. Below is the transcript of our interview.

1) CJ, first place I want to start with you is pregame – Ideally when do you get to the park (do you go for BP, etc) and what are you looking for and to accomplish in the time before 1st pitch?

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“Pregame is the most important time to take in everything. Showing up to the park early is something I routinely do. I always try to get there even before batting practice starts. Sometimes teams will take infield and outfield and there players show off arm strength and accuracy. It’s most important for differentiating arm strength between outfielders and “left side of the infield” infielders. Also during pregame, pitchers throw flat grounds, bullpens and long toss. There, you can see whether a pitching has ideal arm strength, control (flat ground) and command when throwing a bullpen session.

Batting practice is the most important time to dissect a hitter. In BP, a hitter shows whether they have bat speed, raw power/strength and how much feel they have for squaring balls up. If a player has true natural feel for the barrel, they will show ideal contact skills and can usually consistently find the sweet part of the barrel on mostly every pitch.”

2) Now the game has started… What are you looking for when scouting pitching prospects?

“When scouting pitching prospects, I like to watch every single warm up pitch they throw before the inning starts. During this time, I like to take as many notes I can, as quickly as I can, on a pitchers mechanics. I do this so I don’t miss any velocity readings during the inning. Although pitchers may not throw 100% in warm ups, they still use the same mechanics. Things of note would be: arm slot, hips/shoulders in sync, landing point, arm action, angle, deception, and effort. During the inning, dissecting a pitchers’ control/command is ideal. Control is showing the ability to throw strikes in a certain vicinity while command is showing they can consistently hit their spots. Usually, I mark fastball velocity readings in the 1st, 3rd and 5th innings to see how well a pitcher holds his velocity.

When grading secondaries, it it ideal to recognize whether a pitcher uses the same arm speed and arm slot. This is especially important when grading change-ups because usually they are most effective with the same arm speed. A good change-up will come from the same arm speed and slot and have a fading action to a pitchers’ arm side. Although, I have seen pitchers be successful with cutting change-ups. I think the hardest secondary to grade is a good curveball because not many pitchers have them. A lot of pitchers “throw” curveballs but not many grade to plus or better. The ability to spin a breaking ball is a true art and when grading I look at: spin, break, sharpness, depth and velocity. A slider is a little different because it is a horizontal breaking pitch. For a slider, I look for spin, break (tilt), sharpness and velocity as well.”

 

3) Conversely, what characteristics or skills are you looking for when scouting a hitter? What flaws can be corrected and which are “in-correctable”?

“Scouting hitters is a bit different. Like I said, the most telling time to scout a hitter is in batting practice. First thing I look for in a hitter is bat speed. If a hitter has premium bat speed, then it allows them to make “more” mistakes in game (when guessing a pitch or two strike approach) because they have the bat speed to make up for it. In game, the easiest thing to scout is a hitters’ approach. During at-bats, you can tell if a player has a real plan at the plate or whether they are just a hacker. Although, it is easy to identify, a bad approach is one of the easier things to correct/teach.

Next, I look at pitch recognition for a hitter. Can they read spin? I’m a firm believer in recognizing and reading spin is a neurological skill. You can tell this but how a player reacts to spin. Does player x flinch? Does he bail out? Or does he recognize it and stay in and barrel the ball. Which leads to make next skill: barrel control. When a player has true feel for the barrel, they can usually barrel and square all types of pitches in every location. Lastly, I think the most correctable aspect of hitting is approach. You cannot teach bat speed and you cannot teach the neurological aspect of recognizing spin.”

4) Now the game is over… What work do you do post-game?

“Post-game, I collect all of my notes and all of my thoughts. If I am at a game with another BP member or scout, I like to pick their brain on what they saw/thought as well. I write down all of initial reactions and thoughts about each individual player and gather them into a report once I get home to my computer. I usually write out an elaborate report on players and how I feel they grow and progress as they make their way through the minors. AND my favorite post-game activity is to watch the post-game fireworks through the rear view mirror as I’m driving away.”

* * * *

Thanks C.J! Furthermore, C.J. has agreed to return for a Part-2 of this article in the near future, so if you have follow-up questions or other questions for a baseball scout, please leave them in the Comment’s Section or Tweet me @NatsGMdotcom. Thanks for reading!