THE Joshua Kusnick Experience has reached our much anticipated 50th episode and to celebrate, Josh drops one of the most controversial shows in our history.
Our conversation begins with Josh discussing his recent feud with another MLB agent, how it all started and his point of view throughout. Next we pivot to reminisce on Kurt Cobain’s passing on the 25th anniversary of his death and his impact on Josh’s life. Finally, Josh gives some quick thoughts on the recent tragic death of Nipsey Hussle.
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THE Joshua Kusnick Experience Episode #46 has an unusual Sunday drop date but this show was too hot to wait for a weekday. This week Josh and Ryan discuss the state of free agency and if it is “broken”. Then we discussed the 2019 Hall of Fame class, along with playing the “soon-to-be-famous” Podcast game, “What was his WAR“?
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THE Joshua Kusnick Experience #44 is now available for download!
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On this episode Josh begins the conversation discussing his recent experience at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, how it has evolved and what the future holds for the event. Next Josh talks about client Taylor Grover being selected 1st overall in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft and how Pitching Ninja played a part in the process. Then Josh describes the negotiations between client Carlos Asuaje and the KBO, along with the process of getting a buyout from Texas. Finally, we talk about Harold Baines and Lee Smith earning induction into the Hall of Fame, plus we play a round of “Who had a greater career WAR”.
In their first move at the 2018 MLB Winter Meetings, Wednesday the Washington Nationals announced they had traded RHP Tanner Roark to Cincinnati in exchange for RHP Tanner Rainey. Recent rumors had Washington’s front office uneasy about paying Roark’s expected $10 million salary next season in his final year before free agency, preferring to reallocate those funds. Conversely the Reds had prioritized acquiring starting pitching this offseason, and used surplus bullpen depth to bring Roark’s talents to Cincinnati.
The 32-year-old Roark struggled through mechanical issues during 2018, but rebounded to provide Washington with a 9-15 record, a 4.34 ERA and 146 strikeouts over 180.1 innings pitched. It was a tale of two halves for Roark, who had a 4.87 ERA in the first half and 3.43 ERA in the second. Over his 6-year career, Roark has provided the Nationals with 64-54 record and a 3.59 ERA over 935 innings pitched. A durable workhorse, Roark has thrown 180+ four of the past five years and each season he was used as a starter. Unfortunately, his ERA has been above 4 in three of the past four years, making Washington feel his durability is not as valuable as his productivity at his projected salary.
In return Washington receives almost 26-year-old right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey, who was Cincinnati’s 2nd round pick in 2015 and briefly reached the majors last season. Rainey’s cameo in the big leagues was a bigger disaster than the movie Waterworld, as he threw only 7 innings but earned a 24.43 ERA with 12 walks and 4 home runs allowed against only 7 strikeouts. In contrast, however, Rainey was outstanding at Triple-A in 2018, throwing 51innings and allowing only 25 hits and 35 walks against 65 strikeouts.
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Rainey is blessed with dominant, back-of-the-bullpen stuff, possessing an upper-90s fastball that touches 100mph, along with a hard 90mph slider and the occasional changeup. As the high walk totals confirm, Rainey possesses below-average or worse command. He will need to improve this in order to reach his ceiling as a high-leverage late-inning reliever: his likely major league role will be working in middle relief, with underwhelming statistics compared to his impressive repertoire.
Overall this is a difficult trade to analyze, as this move feels like the first in a series of two or three connected transactions. Washington’s biggest present weakness before this trade was their starting pitching depth behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and newly-signed Patrick (Don’t Call Me Baron) Corbin, and this move further depletes this area of need.
In a vacuum, this trade was purely a salary dump for the Nationals, who did not want to pay Roark $10 million for 2019. Through that lens, General Manager Mike Rizzo did well to clear all of Roark’s salary and receive a major league ready reliever with premium stuff. Rainey is likely destined for a maddening career in middle relief, but there is a chance a change of scenery helps him improve his control. Nevertheless, I believe the Nationals (and their fan base) are woefully underestimating the importance of Roark’s durability, and I strongly fear this trade comes back to bite them in 2019. While I would happily gamble on Rainey’s upside, I would have passed on this offer from Cincinnati.
