Washington Trades For All-Star Reliever Kelvin Herrera

Posted on June 19, 2018 by Ryan Sullivan

Monday evening the Washington Nationals boldly traded prospects Blake Perkins, Kelvin Gutierrez and Yohanse Morel to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for 2-time All-Star reliever RHP Kelvin Herrera. In addition Washington will absorb the remainder of Herrera’s contract, approximately $4.5 million this season.

The 28-year-old Herrera has been one of the best relief pitchers in the American League this decade, providing the Royals with a 2.75 ERA over 441.1 innings pitched, with 438 strikeouts against 371 hits and 128 walks, along with 57 saves. After a subpar 2017, this season Herrera has been terrific, posting a 1.05 ERA with 14 saves for Kansas City in 25.2 innings.

Herrera features a 3-pitch repertoire, including a 96-98mph fastball, low-80s slider and upper-80s changeup. Herrera does all the things a good relief pitcher does, he limits his walks (career 2.61 BB/9), hits (7.6 H/9) and home runs (career 0.73 HR/9) allowed, while striking out nearly a batter per inning (career 8.93 K/9). Herrera is earning $7,937,500 in 2018 and will be a free agent at the end of the season. He should immediate work as the primary set-up man ahead of closer Sean Doolittle and shift Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler into middle relief.

In exchange for Herrera Washington parted with three intriguing prospects, beginning with 21-year-old CF Blake Perkins. Washington’s 2^nd round pick in 2015, Perkins is a lean 6’1” 165lbs switch-hitting, right-handed throwing outfielder with easy plus speed. Defensively Perkins is a terrific center fielder, utilizing his speed and long strides to effortlessly track the baseball. He has a solid-average arm and outstanding instincts, allowing him to profile as a “60” defender.

Offensively Perkins has solid bat speed from both sides of the plate and understands his role as a table-setter in the lineup. His swing, both lefty and righty, is a bit long and will need to decrease in order to make more contact. Perkins needs to add strength and improve his balance at the plate, but with repetition, he could develop into an average hitter with occasional home run power. Perkins has two plus tools and projects as a defensive-oriented 4^th outfielder, with a ceiling as a below-average starter in center field.

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Kelvin Gutierrez was signed for $30,000 as an international free agent in 2013. The 23-year-old Gutierrez has an impressive 6’3” 185lbs frame along with fringe-average speed. Defensively Gutierrez profiles as a plus defender at the hot corner due to his soft hands, solid first-step quickness and plus arm. At the plate Gutierrez has impressive bat speed and shows raw power in batting practice, but it has yet to translate into game action. He barrels the baseball well and there is loft in his swing, so scouts project him to add power in the future. Gutierrez has a ceiling as a league-average starting third baseman if the power develops, with the likely outcome being a bench player or Quad-A 3B.

Kansas City will also receive 17-year-old RHP Yohanse Morel, a live-armed 6’0” 170lbs Dominican prospect Washington signed last July 2^nd. Morel has made one appearance this season for Washington’s Dominican Summer League team, pitching 3.1 innings with 6 hits and 1 walk against 5 strikeouts. Reports have him with low-90s fastball velocity and a developing slider. Morel is an intriguing “flyer” for Kansas City to gamble on as the 3^rd player in the trade.

Kansas City and Washington made a rather traditional baseball trade, as the contending Nationals acquire an impending free agent to bolster their bullpen from the struggling Royals. Kansas City did well to gather three prospects and eliminate more than $4 million in payroll for half a season of Herrera. On the other hand, Herrera is a major addition to Washington’s relief corps, as he solidifies the 8^th inning and allows Kintzler to handle the 6^th, Madson to work the 7^th and Justin Miller to slot in as a righty specialist.

The timing of this deal seems slightly odd, as Herrera was potentially the top reliever available this summer and Washington does not appear to have “overpaid” in prospect currency. Washington’s roster is significantly stronger today with Herrera and the team did not part with a premium prospect. The Nationals still needs help at catcher and perhaps a lefty specialist, but this trade makes Washington a legitimate contender to win the National League this year.

NatsGM Grade -> B+

THE NatsGM Show #131 – Dr. Meredith Wills

Posted on June 18, 2018 by Ryan Sullivan

THE NatsGM Show #131 is now available and we are proud to welcome for her debut appearance, Dr. Meredith Wills.

Recently Dr. Wills wrote a groundbreaking piece for The Athletic, finding that the laces on the baseball were 9% thicker now than before the home run surge a few seasons ago. She begins by introducing her research and her conclusions, plus how this alteration to the baseball could be causing more home runs. Next she also explains how this change could also be causing the surge in blisters for many major league pitchers. Finally, Dr. Wills gives her opinions on if this was accidental or on purpose, MLB’s purchase of baseball maker Rawlings and where these conclusions will take her research going forward.

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Her Article -> https://theathletic.com/381544/2018/06/06/how-one-tiny-change-to-the-baseball-may-have-led-to-both-the-home-run-surge-and-the-rise-in-pitcher-blisters/

Nationals Need A Boost Behind The Plate

Posted on June 16, 2018 by Ryan Sullivan

The Nationals have been scuffling thus far in June with a 5-5 record. In particular, the offense has been struggling, scoring only 39 runs in those 10 games. And if you eliminate their 11-run explosion last week against the Rays, the Nationals are averaging only 3.11 runs per game in June. While it takes many hitters collectively struggling at the same time to produce these results, the Nationals catchers have been particularly dreadful recently.

Starting catcher Matt Wieters was having a solid start to 2018, but unfortunately was placed on the disabled list about a month ago with a hamstring injury. In his absence, Pedro Severino has acted as the starter, with Spencer Kieboom serving as the backup. Both players have performed well defensively despite their inexperience and should be commended for their work handling an experienced pitching staff. However, in the past 30 days, Severino is batting .094/.172/.113 with 13 strikeouts in 53 at-bats and Kieboom has hit .185/.214/.222 in 27 at-bats. Sure, it’s only a small sample size, but this is unacceptable from a non-pitcher.

Wieters performed some baseball activities earlier this week and reports have him targeting a return after the All-Star break. I am not a doctor, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express, but I do fear how a hamstring injury will affect the 32-year-old Wieters when he returns. Besides a knee, I cannot think of a worse injury for a catcher to compensate for every day. Going forward, Wieters should be used with Adam Smith’s “Law of Diminishing Returns” in mind, as his results are much stronger playing twice a week rather than three, three rather than four and so on.

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Thankfully, the trade market could have several players potentially available. Miami’s J.T. Realmuto has been much discussed in NatsTown as an ideal fit and has gotten off to a hot start in 2018, batting .304/.369/.522. He is under contract for two more seasons and will be difficult to acquire. Pittsburgh’s Francisco Cervelli is also off to a strong season, hitting .263/.389/.513. He is under contract thru 2019 and the Pirates could seek to clear his salary from their future obligations. Finally, former National Wilson Ramos is batting .282 with eight home runs so far for the Rays. The Rays are actively slashing payroll, and with Ramos only under contract through 2018, Tampa should be motivated to deal him.

These three players encompass the difficult decision general manager Mike Rizzo has in order to upgrade the catcher position. He could trade for someone at the end of their contract like Ramos at a lower cost, but Rizzo rarely trades prospects for pure rentals. Or should he trade significant prospect capital to secure a longer-term solution. Either way, the Nationals must address the catching position before the July 31 trade deadline.

*Originally Published at MASNSports on 6/15/18*

THE NatsGM Show #130 – Burke Granger

Posted on June 14, 2018 by Ryan Sullivan

THE NatsGM Show #130 is now available and we proudly welcome MLB Draft Expert from 2080 Baseball, Burke Granger!

This week Burke helps educate and dissect the 2018 Washington Nationals draft class. We begin with Burke discussing top picks Mason Denaburg and Tim Cate, plus Day 2 picks like Reid Schaller and Jake Irvin. Next Burke describes other players of note, specifically Gage Canning and Chandler Day, plus “difficult to sign prospects” like Cole Wilcox and Zach Linginfelter. Finally Burke shares his thoughts on the class as a whole, and a couple Day 3 sleepers.
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Thanks to Burke for joining us, and to you for downloading!