THE Joshua Kusnick Experience #44 is now available for download!
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On this episode Josh begins the conversation discussing his recent experience at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, how it has evolved and what the future holds for the event. Next Josh talks about client Taylor Grover being selected 1st overall in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft and how Pitching Ninja played a part in the process. Then Josh describes the negotiations between client Carlos Asuaje and the KBO, along with the process of getting a buyout from Texas. Finally, we talk about Harold Baines and Lee Smith earning induction into the Hall of Fame, plus we play a round of “Who had a greater career WAR”.
Continuing their frenetic offseason, Thursday rumors broke that Washington and free agent RHP Anibal Sanchez had agreed to a 2-year contract worth $19 million plus incentives, along with a 3rd year option valued at $12 million. He will earn $6 million in 2019, $7 million in 2020 and the remaining $6 million is deferred until 2021, pending a physical. All told, Sanchez can make $33 million over three seasons if all options and incentives are reached.
The almost 35-year-old Sanchez revitalized his career in
2018 pitching for Atlanta, throwing 136.2 innings while producing a 2.83 ERA
and 135 strikeouts against 106 hits and 42 walks allowed. This was a stark contrast to his three
previous seasons, in which he had a 6.41 ERA in 2017, 5.87 ERA in 2016 and 4.99
ERA in 2015. This success was due to a
change in approach and modifying his pitch selection, as Sanchez went from mixing
6 separate pitches to primarily throwing a cutter, 4-seam fastball and the
occasional changeup. This adjustment
helped him increase his swinging-strike rate, opponent’s chase rate and
generate weak contact from hitters.
According to Statcast, no
other starter in baseball had a lower exit velocity on balls in play or allowed
less hard contact in 2018 than Sanchez. Obviously
Washington feels the success from these adjustments is sustainable going
forward.
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Sanchez presently projects as Washington’s 4th starter, pitching behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and new free agent acquisition Patrick Corbin. Sanchez essentially is replacing the recently traded Tanner Roark in Washington’s starting rotation. Washington obviously preferred Sanchez as their 4th starter to Roark, an interesting decision considering the strengths and weaknesses of both pitchers. Roark is a durable starter who can be counted on to throw 170+ innings per year, yet his results will likely be below average. Conversely, Sanchez’s new arsenal gives him a strong chance to be a league-average or slightly better starter in 2019, even assuming some natural regression from last season: however, he is likely to throw only 125-150 innings next season due to age and potential injury. Considering the injury concerns with Strasburg, Corbin and probable 5th starter Joe Ross, Roark’s durability could arguably be more valuable than Sanchez’s greater statistical upside.
Overall I particularly like this signing for three specific reasons. Firstly, I like the gamble by the Nationals that Sanchez is a different pitcher now that he has scrapped his sinker, slider and curveball to throw more cutters, his best pitch. It seems elementary for a pitcher to throw more of his best pitch and fewer of his weaker pitches, but simplicity does not negate results, and this adaptation has made him a better pitcher. Second, I think his contract is a solid value in this market, where similar (and arguably lesser) starting pitchers like Trevor Cahill, Matt Harvey and Lance Lynn have already signed for larger annual salaries. While those three are possibly more durable, I feel confident Sanchez’s results will be superior to those other three pitchers.
Finally, and most importantly, I believe Anibal Sanchez is a
better pitcher than the man he is replacing, Tanner Roark. Washington will miss Roark’s dependability
this season and clearly there is more risk associated with Sanchez. However, Sanchez should generate superior
results while earning less money in 2019, making him a clear upgrade for
Washington.
Continuing the frenetic offseason in NatsTown, Saturday news broke and Tuesday it became official that the Nationals and Matt Adams had agreed on a 1-year contract, with a mutual option for 2020. According to media reports Adams will earn $3 million in 2019, with the 2020 option worth $4 million or a $1 million buyout.
The left-handed hitting slugger flourished in Washington after signing with the Nationals last winter, serving as a backup first baseman and providing power off the bench. The 30-year-old Adams batted .257/.332/.510 with 18 home runs in 94 games for Washington, before going to St. Louis in an August waiver claim. He struggled in his return to the Cardinals, hitting only .158 in 27 games, to finish 2018 with a .239/.309/.477 batting line and 21 home runs. 2018 also saw Adams continue his success against right-handed pitching, batting .242/.316/.494 against righties verses a subpar .220/.256/.366 against lefties.
Defensively the massive Adams is primarily a first baseman, though he did also see limited action in left field with reasonable results. His below-average speed limits his range in the field, although he possesses quality baseball instincts and soft hands. He is a below-average defender at both positions, but should not be confused with a designated hitter mimicking a position player.
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Overall this is a tremendous addition to the Nationals, as the team had a desperate need for a backup to protect against a potential Ryan Zimmerman injury and a left-handed bat off the bench. In addition, with the potential departure of Bryce Harper, the Nationals needed additional left-handed power to balance out their heavily right-handed offense. Finally Adams has continually performed well in this role, as his 9 career pinch-hit home runs and 47 pinch-hit RBI are the most among active major league players.
Without question he is limited defensively and needs to be shielded from southpaws, but used similarly to 2018, Adams can be an extremely productive player. I could argue Justin Bour, who signed with the Angels for $2.5 million, is a better value or that DerekDietrich is possibly a better fit, but the combination of his track record of success in this role and familiarity in Washington makes the Matt Adams signing a winner for the Nationals.
In their first move at the 2018 MLB Winter Meetings, Wednesday the Washington Nationals announced they had traded RHP Tanner Roark to Cincinnati in exchange for RHP Tanner Rainey. Recent rumors had Washington’s front office uneasy about paying Roark’s expected $10 million salary next season in his final year before free agency, preferring to reallocate those funds. Conversely the Reds had prioritized acquiring starting pitching this offseason, and used surplus bullpen depth to bring Roark’s talents to Cincinnati.
The 32-year-old Roark struggled through mechanical issues during 2018, but rebounded to provide Washington with a 9-15 record, a 4.34 ERA and 146 strikeouts over 180.1 innings pitched. It was a tale of two halves for Roark, who had a 4.87 ERA in the first half and 3.43 ERA in the second. Over his 6-year career, Roark has provided the Nationals with 64-54 record and a 3.59 ERA over 935 innings pitched. A durable workhorse, Roark has thrown 180+ four of the past five years and each season he was used as a starter. Unfortunately, his ERA has been above 4 in three of the past four years, making Washington feel his durability is not as valuable as his productivity at his projected salary.
In return Washington receives almost 26-year-old right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey, who was Cincinnati’s 2nd round pick in 2015 and briefly reached the majors last season. Rainey’s cameo in the big leagues was a bigger disaster than the movie Waterworld, as he threw only 7 innings but earned a 24.43 ERA with 12 walks and 4 home runs allowed against only 7 strikeouts. In contrast, however, Rainey was outstanding at Triple-A in 2018, throwing 51innings and allowing only 25 hits and 35 walks against 65 strikeouts.
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Rainey is blessed with dominant, back-of-the-bullpen stuff, possessing an upper-90s fastball that touches 100mph, along with a hard 90mph slider and the occasional changeup. As the high walk totals confirm, Rainey possesses below-average or worse command. He will need to improve this in order to reach his ceiling as a high-leverage late-inning reliever: his likely major league role will be working in middle relief, with underwhelming statistics compared to his impressive repertoire.
Overall this is a difficult trade to analyze, as this move feels like the first in a series of two or three connected transactions. Washington’s biggest present weakness before this trade was their starting pitching depth behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and newly-signed Patrick (Don’t Call Me Baron) Corbin, and this move further depletes this area of need.
In a vacuum, this trade was purely a salary dump for the Nationals, who did not want to pay Roark $10 million for 2019. Through that lens, General Manager Mike Rizzo did well to clear all of Roark’s salary and receive a major league ready reliever with premium stuff. Rainey is likely destined for a maddening career in middle relief, but there is a chance a change of scenery helps him improve his control. Nevertheless, I believe the Nationals (and their fan base) are woefully underestimating the importance of Roark’s durability, and I strongly fear this trade comes back to bite them in 2019. While I would happily gamble on Rainey’s upside, I would have passed on this offer from Cincinnati.
