Continuing their frenetic offseason, Thursday rumors broke that Washington and free agent RHP Anibal Sanchez had agreed to a 2-year contract worth $19 million plus incentives, along with a 3^rd year option valued at $12 million.  He will earn $6 million in 2019, $7 million in 2020 and the remaining $6 million is deferred until 2021, pending a physical.  All told, Sanchez can make $33 million over three seasons if all options and incentives are reached.

The almost 35-year-old Sanchez revitalized his career in 2018 pitching for Atlanta, throwing 136.2 innings while producing a 2.83 ERA and 135 strikeouts against 106 hits and 42 walks allowed.  This was a stark contrast to his three previous seasons, in which he had a 6.41 ERA in 2017, 5.87 ERA in 2016 and 4.99 ERA in 2015.  This success was due to a change in approach and modifying his pitch selection, as Sanchez went from mixing 6 separate pitches to primarily throwing a cutter, 4-seam fastball and the occasional changeup.  This adjustment helped him increase his swinging-strike rate, opponent’s chase rate and generate weak contact from hitters.  According to Statcast, no other starter in baseball had a lower exit velocity on balls in play or allowed less hard contact in 2018 than Sanchez.  Obviously Washington feels the success from these adjustments is sustainable going forward.

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Sanchez presently projects as Washington’s 4^th starter, pitching behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and new free agent acquisition Patrick Corbin.  Sanchez essentially is replacing the recently traded Tanner Roark in Washington’s starting rotation.  Washington obviously preferred Sanchez as their 4^th starter to Roark, an interesting decision considering the strengths and weaknesses of both pitchers.  Roark is a durable starter who can be counted on to throw 170+ innings per year, yet his results will likely be below average.  Conversely, Sanchez’s new arsenal gives him a strong chance to be a league-average or slightly better starter in 2019, even assuming some natural regression from last season: however, he is likely to throw only 125-150 innings next season due to age and potential injury.  Considering the injury concerns with Strasburg, Corbin and probable 5^th starter Joe Ross, Roark’s durability could arguably be more valuable than Sanchez’s greater statistical upside.

Overall I particularly like this signing for three specific reasons.  Firstly, I like the gamble by the Nationals that Sanchez is a different pitcher now that he has scrapped his sinker, slider and curveball to throw more cutters, his best pitch.  It seems elementary for a pitcher to throw more of his best pitch and fewer of his weaker pitches, but simplicity does not negate results, and this adaptation has made him a better pitcher.  Second, I think his contract is a solid value in this market, where similar (and arguably lesser) starting pitchers like Trevor Cahill, Matt Harvey and Lance Lynn have already signed for larger annual salaries.  While those three are possibly more durable, I feel confident Sanchez’s results will be superior to those other three pitchers.

Finally, and most importantly, I believe Anibal Sanchez is a better pitcher than the man he is replacing, Tanner Roark.  Washington will miss Roark’s dependability this season and clearly there is more risk associated with Sanchez.  However, Sanchez should generate superior results while earning less money in 2019, making him a clear upgrade for Washington.

NatsGM Grade  ->           B / B-