The 2018 season cannot be considered anything but a disappointment overall for the Nationals. The team entered the season the clear favorite to win the National League East and one of the favorites to play in the World Series. Unfortunately a near Perfect Storm of yuck occurred midseason and the Nationals stumbled to an 82-80 record. Now the front office must turn their attention toward 2019 and figuring out the correct combination of players to get them back to the postseason.
Offensively Washington enters this winter with the major question if Bryce Harper will be their starting right fielder next year, plus the desperate need for a starting catcher and bench depth. Last season Washington’s offense generated a solid season, producing a team .254/.335/.419 batting line, which compares slightly negatively to their 2017 results of .266/.332/.449. Washington finished 2018 with 771 runs scored (3rd in NL), 191 home runs (5th in NL), 631 walks (2nd in NL), and 1,289 strikeouts (2nd in NL). For comparison sake, the Nationals finished the previous season with 819 runs scored, 215 home runs, 542 walks and 1,327 strikeouts.
In Part-2 of THE NatsGM 2018-2019 Washington Nationals Offseason Manifesto, I first prioritized re-signing Bryce Harper to a long-term contract that could allow him to exceed both the top annual salary in baseball and the largest contract ever signed. By doing so, I would backload the contract heavily to allow for inflation and give him incentives to continue to chase future free agent contracts.
Secondly, I co-prioritized finding a potential long-term solution at catcher for the Nationals. The team does not presently have a starting-caliber catcher in the organization, and the lack of a serviceable backstop has severely hurt the team the past two seasons. I then focused on signing a power-hitting left-handed bat, capable of starting at first base or backing up Ryan Zimmerman and provide some thump off the bench. Finally and most importantly, I was resolute to stay within my stated payroll of $185 million and under $92.5 million for the offense. With these goals in mind, here is my master plan for retooling Washington’s offense and capturing the 2019 World Series.
Transactions
1) Signed OF Bryce Harper, 12-years $415 million with opt-outs after 2021, 2024 & 2027
2) Traded OF Adam Eaton & a Prospect (or Cash) to Cleveland for C Yan Gomes
3) Signed 1B Lucas Duda, 1-year $3.5 million plus incentives
Lineup
Catcher: Yan Gomes $ 7,000,000
1B: Ryan Zimmerman $ 18,000,000
2B: Howie Kendrick $ 4,000,000
SS: Trea Turner $ 5,250,000
3B: Anthony Rendon $ 17,500,000
LF: Juan Soto $ 575,000
CF: Victor Robles $ 575,000
RF: Bryce Harper $ 31,500,000
Salary Total $ 84,400,000
Proposing a hypothetical trade for Cleveland’s Yan Gomes is the worst form of playing “Blogger GM”, but recently reports have the small-market Indians perhaps open to moving several veterans, including Gomes. Cleveland presently lacks any corner outfielders on their roster, making Adam Eaton’s reasonable contract and position flexibility particularly appealing to the Indians. I feel like the Nationals likely need to sweeten the offer to include either cash or a prospect, but this looks like a pure baseball swap that could improve both teams.
The 31-year-old Gomes had a quality season for Cleveland in 2018, batting .266/.313/.449 with 16 home runs in 112 games played. Gomes, a right-handed hitter, is a career .248/.295/.424 batting line and has the reputation as a solid defensive catcher and pitcher framer. He will earn $7 million in 2019, with team options for 2020 and 2021.
Following a monster 2017 in which he was selected for the All-Star game and received MVP votes, Ryan Zimmerman could not follow up on that tremendous season, playing only 85 total games due to injury. However, true to form, when Zimmerman was healthy and in the lineup, the 34-year-old was productive, batting .264/.337/.486 with 13 home runs and 51 runs driven in. Zimmerman is under contract for one final season in 2019, and the Nationals desperately need him to play 120+ games if they hope to return to the postseason.
Howie Kendrick was off to a strong start offensively in 2018, batting .303/.331/.474 with 4 home runs, before a May Achilles injury abruptly ended his season. The 35-year-old Kendrick is the definition of a “professional hitter”, batting .291/.334/.422 over his 13-year major league career. His leg injury could hinder his defense, but Dave Martinez needs to get Kendrick’s bat in the lineup as often as his body allows. Kendrick and Wilmer Difo should form a capable platoon at the keystone until the projected midseason arrival of uber-prospect Carter Kieboom, who should man the position post All-Star break.
Finally able to avoid the disabled list, Trea Turner played 162 games in 2018 and batted .271/.344/.416 with 19 home runs and 43 stolen bases. In addition, Nationals’ fans have watched Turner develop into a solid defensive shortstop, with excellent range and a knack for making the “jump-throw” to first base. Turner will reach arbitration for the first time this winter, and should be Washington’s starting shortstop the next few years.
My pick for the most underrated player in the National League, Anthony Rendon notched another tremendous season in 2018, hitting .308/.374/.535 with 24 home runs. In addition, Rendon was a finalist for the Gold Glove award in the National League. He is in his final season of team control in 2019, but expect Washington to attempt to work out a long-term extension for him this winter.
Juan Soto began 2018 as the starting right fielder for Low-A Hagerstown and finished the season with perhaps the greatest offensive season for a teenager in baseball history. The left-handed hitting Soto batted .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs in 116 games, while playing a quality left field. It will be interesting to see how the league adjusts to him in 2019 and if he can avoid the dreaded “sophomore slump”. Nevertheless Soto should bat in the middle of Washington’s order the next several years.
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Victor Robles struggled through a mostly forgettable 2018, injuring his elbow in the first week of the season and spending most of the year rehabilitating. He was able to return in September and play 21 games down the stretch for Washington, batting .288/.348/.525 with 3 home runs and dynamic defense in center field. It is easy to forget amidst Soto’s stellar year and the lost season, but the 21-year-old Robles is still one of the top prospects in baseball and a true 5-tool talent. Assuming he is fully healthy, he should be Washington’s Opening Day center fielder in 2019.
As difficult as it is to sign a player to such an large sum, the scout in me is loathe to let a potential Hall of Fame player about to enter his prime like Bryce Harper leave as a free agent. While many will complain about what he has not accomplished, Harper has hit .279/.388/.512 with 184 home runs before his 26th birthday. Even in a supposed down season in 2018, Harper still hit .249/.393/.496 with 34 home runs and slugged .300/.434/.538 in the second half. He will have plenty of suitors, but I truly believe he is most valuable to Washington and will eventually sign a contract with Washington to potentially keep him in D.C. the rest of his playing career.
Bench
Catcher: Spencer Kieboom / Pedro Severino $ 575,000
INF: Wilmer Difo $ 575,000
OF: Michael A. Taylor $ 3,100,000
Bat: Lucas Duda $ 3,500,000
Bench Salary Total: $ 7,750,000
Lineup Total: $ 84,400,000
Offense Total: $ 92,150,000
Pitching Staff Total: $ 92,150,000
2019 Total 25-Man Payroll: $ 184,300,000
Due to injuries, both Spencer Kieboom and Pedro Severino received extensive playing time for Washington last season. And while neither impressed with the bat, both showed the ability to lead a pitching staff defensively. The 25-year-old Severino played 70 games for Washington, batting .168/.254/.247 with 2 home runs. The 27-year-old Kieboom was only slightly more impressive offensively, hitting .232/.322/.320 with 2 homers in 52 games played. Expect the Nationals to have both catchers compete for the backup position in Spring Training, but if a veteran catcher slips through the free agent cracks this winter, do not be surprised if Washington looks to upgrade this position.
Wilmer Difo had a disappointing 2018, as he had two separate opportunities to work as the starting second baseman for lengthy stretches, and neither time did he capitalize on the opportunity. The 26-year-old switch-hitter hit only .230/.298/.350 with 7 home runs in 408 at-bats. In fairness, he is an outstanding defender at second base and a capable defender at four different positions. Difo has likely missed his window to become a starter, but has value as a versatile defender who can slug the occasional home run.
While there is a strong likelihood Washington will attempt to trade him this winter, considering his salary, defensive ability and lackluster trade value, I would use Michael A. Taylor as a 4th outfielder next season. Taylor was yet another National that struggled through a subpar 2018, as he hit only .227/.287/.357 with 6 home runs and 24 stolen bases. In spite of his contact issues and mediocre offensive numbers, he was still a productive player due to his impressive outfield defense and speed on the bases. He could benefit from a change of scenery and a full-time starting role, but his best value to Washington is as their backup outfielder in 2019.
Finally, for the last spot on the bench I prioritized a left-handed hitter with power and someone capable of starting at first base on a daily basis. Conveniently, there is a healthy supply of these players on the free agent market this season, with options such as Matt Adams, Brad Miller, Geraldo Parra, Logan Morrison, Geraldo Parra and Neil Walker. Considering the team needs and the salary available for this spot, I believe the best fit is 1B Lucas Duda.
The 32-year-old Duda produced another solid season in 2018 for both Kansas City and Atlanta, batting .241/.313/.418 with 14 home runs in 328 at-bats. For his 9-year major league career, the left-handed hitting Duda has a .242/.337/.452 batting line with 152 home runs. Of particular interest is Duda’s success against right-handed pitching, as he has a career .251/.354/.485 batting line against righties. He provides Washington a legitimate left-handed power hitter off the bench and a starting-caliber first baseman in case of a Zimmerman injury.
In this quest to retool the Nationals’ offense, the biggest challenge was staying within the $92.5 million allowance for position players and overall $185 million budget. Next was finding a creative way to re-sign Bryce Harper in order to both satisfy his contract demands and still put 24 other solid players around him. Almost as important as signing Bryce is securing a starting catcher for 2019, as Washington has desperately needed an everyday backstop ever since Wilson Ramos injured his knee. Also, I needed to find a quality option to backup Zimmerman at first base. Finally, I wanted to solve all of these issues without parting with any further prospects, as the farm system is not especially robust at present.
I should acknowledge the weaknesses of this hypothetical offense – First I feel apprehensive starting the combination of Kendrick and Difo at second base to begin the year. Kendrick is coming off major surgery and will be a defensive liability, while Difo is a defensive wizard but subpar at the plate. Ideally they would merge to form one terrific player, but Davey Martinez will need to be creative using these two until Kieboom is major league ready.
Second I wish I felt more strongly about the catching combination of Gomes and either Kieboom or Severino. I have long been a fan of Gomes, but he does have injury concerns and is a bit of a streaky hitter. In addition, Kieboom and Severino both had their opportunities last season, and both were underwhelming with the bat. I wish the budget would allow the team to acquire a more complete backup catcher to compliment Gomes, but Kieboom and Severino, plus prospect Raudy Read, will have to handle the job in 2019.
Finally, much like the entire roster, I do worry many of the key Nationals hitters have injury issues and a track record of spending time on the disabled list. The bench is pretty solid as a group, but there are depth concerns beyond them at the minor league level. Every team needs some good fortune in terms of injuries, but Washington probably needs a bit more luck keeping their hitters from the disabled list than most teams.
Those concerns aside, I believe this offense projects as one of the strongest in the National League. The team will have a heart of the order consisting of Harper, Rendon and Soto, table-setters in Turner and Robles, and veteran complimentary hitters in Zimmerman, Kendrick and Gomes. The lineup is a bit right-handed, with six righties against only two lefties, but it is a deep order with eight productive hitters and a nice blend of speed and power. Assuming reasonable health, Washington should have as much firepower as anyone in the National League.
Overall I am pleased with the overall lineup I was able to construct given the hypothetical and real world constraints the Nationals face this offseason. There is more injury risk with this group than I would prefer and I wish the team defense projected to be elite, rather than average to above-average. That said there are ten hitters capable of hitting 12+ home runs with enough playing time, plus a versatile bench filled with capable defenders and home run power. IF they can remain relatively healthy, the Nationals should have a top-5 offense in the National League next season and stand an excellent chance of reaching the postseason for the fifth time in eight years.
*Thank you for reading! This is my favorite column to write each year. If you have comments or thoughts, please share them in the comment’s section.
Funny you should write the Manifesto 2 posting today. , Nats GM
Justin Bour and his fiancé sat in FC out of BWI to MIA. I shared with Justin how I watched him play for the Spartans @ West Lafayette vs the Boilers. Then I asked him one request : sign with the Nats! He chuckled. Very nice guy.
What would your druthers be Duda or Bour ??
I’d prefer Bour, but think some team will offer him arbitration this winter, making him too expensive for Washington. But given a straight choice, I think Bour has a 35 HR season in his career some day, would be nice if it was for the Nats.
Plus Ryan: Bour was probably making $7 million in 2018
Back to my conversation on the plane with Justin, I could not think of the name of the MSU alum reliever Rizzo traded or sold to the White Sox who might have been teammates with Justin who could not think of his name either. Granted. Just past 5 am.
Looking at your Luis Garcia to Toronto hypothetical trade, I wonder if Nats would go with a Harrisburg mix of Meijia , Masters and Montessori ?? Like a law firm
Speaking of Spartan alums. I wonder how Alex Troop the lefty is coming along this winter heading towards spring
Camp??
Cola Yeh. New coach name on auburn. That name outdoes Onix Vega
Ryan. This doesn’t mean anything in the history of baseball or fandom but I recalll you mentioning way back when JD Martinez was a depth piece on the Astros when you opinooned that the Nats should pick him up. Well Diamond Dave did that twice and look at MLB history now.
Any JD types hiding under any rocks
This winter ?
Ryan that toss in in the Tribe deal could be Jones the PA prep 3 b or that certain bullpen arm?
LuCroy did not surface in your manifesto
This sounds like a Manifesto for a decade of mediocrity. $400+ million for Harper is insane. Heck, $250 million is insane. This wasn’t an “off year.” Harper almost single handedly tanked the Nats’ chances given how relatively poor the divisional competition still was. And funny how EVERY year seems to be an “off year” Harper save 2015–when he was already getting called out in a major way for his lack of hustle–which has just gotten worse since then. Not to mention that he had to play 160 games just to (barely) get his FIRST 100 RBI season–and has hit 40 HRs only ONCE. The highest paid player in the game should do that every single year.
Harper isn’t half the player Mike Trout is, even by WAR, and Trout is the only player in baseball worth that kind of money right now.
Hey Karl,
Thanks for reading and writing. I respectfully disagree, but I have written enough about why. I hope they keep him in DC. Either way, should be a fun offseason to observe and analyze.
Ryan
Damn….i was gonna suggest a Michael Taylor for Zunino trade.
Oh well…
On another note, it’s sad to say, but i really think it is time to move on from Zimmerman. He just can’t stay healthy enough to carry the team any more and his salary is taking up too much of the payroll.
Would a trade of Zimmerman, Jeffry Rod and Daniel Johnson be enough to get Greinke?
I’m sure the Dbacks would love to have one year of Zimmernan at 19 million instead of 3 years of Greinke at 90 million. They would also be getting two promising young players.
For the Nats, it would mean getting a very good #3 starter for 3 years for effectively 71 million ( his roughly 90 million left on the contract less Zimmerman’s salary that the Dbacks would take on.).
That’s works out to about 23-25 million per year, which would be the going rate if Greinke were a free agent and given the seasons he’s had recently.
Who mans first base you ask? All you have to do is look at last year’s Matt Carpenter signing to know you can get a much cheaper replacement to deliver almost the same results.
Expos123,
Thanks for reading and responding. I do not envision a scenario where the Nationals would trade Ryan Zimmerman. He is the Face of the Franchise and his salary is not particularly appealing to other teams. Arizona is a particularly poor fit due to the presence of Goldschmidt. But I like the idea of getting Greinke, just not sure this is the offer to do it.
Ryan
Thanks Ryan.
I get what your saying, but if we learned anything seeing Werth in his last few years here, you can’t let loyalty and emotion get in the way of doing what’s right for your team, even if it means sometimes making painful decisions.
The reason i mentioned the Dbacks is that i believe they are trading Goldshmidt and would thus have an opening at first base.
Zimmerman would help them fill that leftover 1B void and help facilitate the Nats taking on Greinke’s massive remaining contract. Who knows, if he ends up playing well, they can trade him at the deadline and pick up even more assets.
More importantly, if they really want to move on from Greinke, they would surely need to retain salary or take on a bad contract in return.
Anyways, it gonna be a very exciting and unpredictable offseason and i look forward to checking out this site as often as i can.
How about stepping out of the assets department and exploring what the reality would be if Angelos , The Oriioles and the MASN contract was resolved in a perfect world without the warts in the Angelos side .
( warts is a light word for something that might need words with stronger medicine )
Another thing about Duda, Bob Boone probably has a fondness for Trojan alums since two of his sons attended SC.
Looking at the big board for the farm before
Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft portion , Many wonder how the infield mixes will shake out. Potomac may be a repeat of Hags 18 plus Edwin Lora repeating @ SS?
Meregildo and Franco flipping on various days between 3b/1b with Scudder flipping between 1b/DH. Of course Cole Freeman playing much 2b. Hmmm can Juan Pascal make the jump to high A with his IF/OF skills ?
Ryan. Has the Franchise face looked into
Improved shoes and arch supports for his feet and planter muscle ??
Noll and Wilson should be super subs at the upper levels in 2019
But that doesn’t mean that the Nationals would be entering a rebuilding phase. For 2019, they’d still have Scherzer, Strasburg and Rendon. They’d have Turner, Soto and Sean Doolittle . They’d have Adam Eaton , Ryan Zimmerman , Tanner Roark , Victor Robles and Brandon Kintzler .
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