Rumors began swirling early Tuesday morning and became official Friday as the Washington Nationals and free agent catcher Matt Wieters agreed to terms on a 2-year deal worth $21 million. Wieters will earn $10.5 million each year and the pact includes an opt-out for Wieters after this season. In addition, reportedly Washington can defer $5 million until 2021. In a related move to create room on the 40-man roster, Washington placed minor league 1B Jose Marmolejos-Diaz on the 60-Day disabled list with a forearm strain.
The almost 31-year-old Wieters made his 4th all-star appearance last season for Baltimore, hitting .243/.302/.409 with 17 home runs and 66 runs batted in over 124 games played. For his 8-year major league career, Wieters has hit .256/.318/.421 with 117 home runs. A switch-hitter Wieters has been better during his career against lefties with a .801 OPS verses a .716 against righties. He has never been able to live up to his early hype as the #5 overall pick and someone compared to “Joe Mauer with power”. Nonetheless, this collective disappointment aside, Wieters is an above-average hitting catcher with legitimate 15-20 home run power.
Defensively Wieters earns mixed reviews, as he possesses a plus arm and has earned the reputation of “slowing down the running game”, throwing out 33% of career base stealers. He also gets solid grades for his ability to block pitches in the dirt and pitchers have long commented on his skill at calling games. Negatively, Wieters has poor marks as a pitch framer and his 6-5 height often works against him getting strikes called low in the zone. Depending on how strongly you believe in the value of pitch framing and the metrics attempting to value this skill, Wieters is somewhere between a below-average and a solid-average defensive catcher.
This signing is extremely difficult to evaluate in a vacuum, as there is a near certainty Wieters arrival will force the departure of either Derek Norris or Jose Lobaton later this spring. Lobaton is superior defensively, has experience with the pitching staff and makes less money ($1.575mm), making him the probable option to stay. However, Norris’s pitch framing skills, ability to punish left-handed pitching and age make him an intriguing bounce-back candidate and platoon-mate for Wieters. Norris does have minor league options, but it is highly unlikely Washington would option someone earning $4.2 million for any length of time, besides John Lannan.
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Nonetheless what is clear is that Wieters is a significantly better player than Lobaton, and is a safer option than Norris. If Washington goes with the combination of Wieters and Norris, the upgrade from Lobaton cost them approximately $8 million and makes them perhaps 1 win better this season. This has been the going rate for wins in free agency, but falls well short of what might be considered a bargain. With Wieters and Lobaton, Washington is spending about $6 million more this season to upgrade less than a win, but gives the Nationals some security if Norris’s bat fails to rebound from 2016. This is the essential thesis of this deal – Washington increased their payroll $6-$8 million in 2017 to marginally upgrade their catching position with a more consistent and reliable player.
Overall I am not surprised Wieters eventually signed with Washington, as his agent Scott Boras’ relationship with ownership, plus the departure of Wilson Ramos, made this a natural fit. However, this still strikes me as odd, as Washington has bigger needs on the roster, namely bullpen and backup outfield, yet has acted stingy with adding payroll all winter. On the surface, signing a league-average catcher for two years and $21 million like Wieters feels like a reasonable signing, as he should play about 110 games each season and post a 1.5-2.0 WAR. There is a low chance he significantly outperforms his paycheck, but there is also a slim chance he grossly underperforms the terms as well. This late in the offseason, or technically now during spring training, one expects free agent contracts to be bargains for the team, and this is definitely not a bargain.
And this is my major dilemma with this signing – Washington adds insurance to their lineup and the benefits of helping Boras while sticking it to Baltimore, but the team did not drastically improve compared to the cost. $10.5 million, minus Norris or Lobaton’s salary, could add another reliever or two, plus a veteran outfielder, improving three positions rather than one. While the team improves by signing Wieters, I believe it is a poor allocation of resources by the front office. If Washington decides to go with Wieters & Norris rather than Wieters & Lobaton, I like it much more, but in general, I would have passed on this signing.
NatsGM Overall Grade -> D