Saturday afternoon I took advantage of the rainy weather outside to watch the visiting Vanderbilt Commodores play the host University of Florida Gators. Considering the 2016 MLB Draft is less than a month away, I wanted to seize this opportunity to watch two top-10 teams loaded with potential early round draft prospects. In particular, I wanted to perform an Armchair Evaluation of Florida’s Saturday starter, and projected top draft choice, LHP A.J. Puk.
Facing a difficult and talented Vanderbilt lineup, Puk pitched 6 impressive innings, allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits and 2 walks against 11 strikeouts. Puk threw 110 pitches against the 23 batters he faced, (64 strikes / 46 balls), inducing 3 ground outs and 4 fly outs. Essentially Puk made one mistake, allowing only a solo home run in the 2nd inning to talented freshman Julian Infante.
The monstrous 6-7 230lbs. Puk utilizes a semi-windup, with a simple side step that leads into his high leg kick and delivery toward home. Puk throws from a three-quarter to high three-quarter arm slot and has a noticeably fast arm. His immense size, along with a reasonable amount of excess movement in his motion, causes him to struggle repeating his delivery. Puk has a lengthy arm stroke with a mild arm-wrap, which further limits his ability to command the strike zone.
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This outing gave a terrific synopsis of Puk as a prospect, as his strengths and weaknesses were fully exposed by Vanderbilt. The “starter kit” with Puk is quite impressive as a lefty with legitimate mid-to-high 90s velocity, a mountainous frame ideal for a starting pitcher and the potential for two plus or better pitches. Unfortunately his size works against him a bit, as he presently struggles to repeat his motion and arm slot. In addition, his lack of confidence and the development of his changeup could hinder his ability to get professional right-handed hitters out. However, his mechanical issues and changeup both should improve with professional coaching and repetitions.
His present velocity, frame and potential for two dominant pitches give him a floor of an impact late-inning reliever. If he can improve his command of the strike zone and his changeup, the ceiling exists for Puk to develop into a #2 or #3 starter in the major leagues. Puk should be an easy top-15 pick in next month’s draft, with a chance he goes inside the top-3.
NatsGM Draft Projection -> Top 5-10 Overall