During Monday’s contest against Detroit, rumors began spreading and were confirmed Tuesday afternoon when the Washington Nationals and Stephen Strasburg announced they had agreed to terms on a 7-year contract extension worth $175 million. Washington’s 1st round selection, 1st overall, in the 2009 MLB Draft, Strasburg was projected to be the top available free agent this coming offseason, making it rather surprising he signs this extension at this time.
The structure of the deal is somewhat unique, as Strasburg will earn $15 million per season from 2017-2023, with the remaining $70 million being deferred without interest and paid out at $10 million per year from 2024-2030. In addition, the contract allows the 27-year-old Strasburg to opt out of the agreement after the third and fourth year. Finally, he can earn an additional $1 million per year for each season he throws more than 180 innings.
After perhaps the most publicized collegiate career in a generation, it was difficult to imagine that Strasburg could live up to the pre-draft hype. However, despite the cloud of skepticism surrounding his 2012 playoff shutdown, Strasburg has developed into one of the best starting pitchers in the National League. Since his memorable debut in June 2010, Strasburg has a 59-37 record with a 3.07 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 10.5 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9 over 825.2 innings pitched.
These fantastic numbers, plus his age, had Strasburg primed to be the top available free agent this winter in what is generally considered to be a weak class – this expectation, plus the fact that notoriously difficult negotiator Scott Boras is Strasburg’s agent, makes this extension both shocking and fascinating.
On the surface, it seems interesting that Strasburg signed for less guaranteed money than fellow comparable free agent pitchers Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez and teammate Max Scherzer did in recent years. However, the injury risk associated with Strasburg would appear to be greater than those pitchers or similar free agent starters, as he had Tommy John surgery in 2011 and has thrown nearly 650 innings on the repaired elbow. Understandably Strasburg valued the opportunity to sign for seven years and guarantee his family’s future with $175 million. Plus, if he continues to pitch in similarly excellent fashion the next few years and/or the salaries paid to free agents continues to skyrocket, Strasburg could opt out of this deal and sign another massive contract after 2019 or 2020.
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Secondly, Washington has locked up Strasburg’s age 28-34 seasons, and most specifically, his age 28-30 or 28-31 seasons, also known as his prime, before he reaches the opt outs in the agreement. Rarely do players reach free agency before 30, meaning teams are often signing these superstars never receiving the chance to capitalize on their supposed peak seasons.
Finally, in an environment where teams are paying $8+ million in free agency for 1 WAR (Win Above Replacement), in sheer economic terms the Nationals need Strasburg to be worth approximately 18-21 “Wins” from 2017-2023. Considering he has been worth 20.4 WAR thus far in his career according to Fangraphs.com, it feels reasonably plausible he would double this output over the rest of his career, even assuming for little to no production in 2022 and 2023.
While the potential for injury cannot be ignored or overstated, the team has structured the contract where unless catastrophe strikes, Strasburg should be able to be “worth” his contract if he stays for all seven seasons through 2023. That said, the best case scenario for Washington most likely has Strasburg dominate on the mound for the next several years, then opt out and sign with another organization for his post-prime seasons.
Looking ahead, this deal guarantees the Nationals to have Scherzer and Strasburg, likely along with uber-prospect Lucas Giolito, fronting their starting rotation beginning next season through the rest of the decade. In what has to be considered the biggest “WOW” moment in franchise history since signing Jayson Werth as a free agent, the Nationals have made a calculated and wise gamble in signing Stephen Strasburg to this extension.
NatsGM Grade -> Solid B