January 17, 2011
After trying to sign Cliff Lee and Jorge De La Rosa and trying to trade for Zack Greinke and Matt Garza, the Nationals quest to upgrade their starting rotation finally materialized this afternoon, as they acquired 28 year old LHP Tom Gorzelanny from the Chicago Cubs for minor league prospects OF Michael Burgess, RHP AJ Morris, and LHP Graham Hicks. Gorzelanny, who made $800,000 last season, should make $1.5-$2.0 million this season, and is under team control through 2013. Gorzelanny, a five-year veteran who pitched for the Pirates early in his career, became expendable when the Cubs acquired Matt Garza from Tampa Bay less than 10 days ago.
Tom Gorzelanny was a highly prized prospect in the Pirates organization early in his career, and has been incredibly inconsistent in his big league career. He had some early success with the Pirates, but a combination of injuries and poor pitching mechanics plagued his performance, forcing him to the minors in 2009, and subsequently, got him traded to Chicago at the July trade deadline that same year. At his best, he shows an 89-91mph fastball that he can locate and a solid breaking pitch that gets some swings and misses. This could be the case of a pitcher taking some time to learn his craft as these numbers bear out:
Career in Pittsburgh: 383.1 IP, 4.79 ERA, 1.503 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 4.1 BB/9
Career in Chicago: 174.2 IP, 4.43 ERA, 1.466 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 4.2 BB/9
Career: 95 Starts, 558 IP, 4.68 ERA, 1.491 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9
2010: 23 Starts, 136.1 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.496 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9
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The Chicago Cub version of Gorzelanny is a solid number 4 starter and would greatly help the back end of the Nationals rotation for the next three seasons. The Pittsburgh version, is of little benefit to anyone and would render him a classic AAA journeyman. He will slide into the 2011 rotation, with Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, Jason Marquis, and some combination of Ross Detwiler, Yunesky Maya, Jordan Zimmermann, and Chien-Ming Wang rounding out the group.
To acquire Gorzelanny, the Nationals traded OF Michael Burgess, RHP AJ Morris, and LHP Graham Hicks to the Chicago Cubs. Burgess was the 49th selection in the supplemental 1st round in 2007 and spent most of last season in High A Potomac, where he batted .265/.357/.465. Burgess has above average to plus power, and a strong arm in right field but he struggles with weight, has below average speed and struggles to recognize and hit off-speed pitches. He is a nice prospect that should reach the major leagues, but likely will settle into a platoon or 4th/5th outfielder type player down the line. RHP AJ Morris, a 4th round pick in the 2009 draft from Kansas St., has a nice sinker/slider repertoire that proved more effective out of the bullpen last season. Like Burgess, I think he will be a major leaguer, but I think he will likely top out as a decent but replaceable middle reliever. Graham Hicks, the final player heading to the Cubs, was the Nationals 4th Round pick in 2008 as a Florida high school pitcher. Hicks, who will turn 21 in February, posted a 5.26 ERA in 15 starts in low-A Hagerstown in 2010. Graham’s professional numbers have left much to be desired, but he is a young left-handed arm with fastball velocity and some upside, exactly the type that rarely but occasionally come back to haunt you.
Will the real Tom Gorzelanny please stand up? The bottom line is this trade comes down to has Tom Gorzelanny improved since being traded to the Cubs, or are the Nationals being fooled by a small sample size of solid results. If he continues to pitch like he has the past 18 months, the Nationals have a nice #4/5 starting pitcher under team control through 2013 who can produce slightly above league average results, a valuable commodity. If he reverts back to previous form, then the Nats got fleeced and traded away some depth from our average farm system. I think there is a good chance we hear from these prospects at some point, especially Burgess and Morris, but I do not fear them coming back to bite the Nationals in the future. When we reflect back on this trade in a few years, this will be one deal that will have a decisive winner and a loser, and I believe the Nationals odds of winning are better than 50-50.
Overall Grade: C+ … inching close to a B-