Now that the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals have won the American League and National League pennants respectively, elsewhere in baseball the 2013 free agent class has begun to take shape. The major initial themes for this offseason include where Yankees superstar Robinson Cano signs, the depth of available catchers and corner outfielders, and the number of quality back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers filling the market. Certainly critics will accurately point to the lack of an Ace-level pitcher like C.C. Sabathia or Cliff Lee as in previous years, but this class has plenty of #4 and #5 starting pitchers.
Last week in Part 1 I analyzed nine of the premier free agent position players available in this year’s free agent class. Today in Part 2, I examine some of the top free agent starting pitchers and attempt to prognosticate where they will pitch next season.
Pitchers
1) Matt Garza RHP Texas Rangers
In a market with pitching depth but little in terms of a true Ace, the soon-to-be 30-year-old Garza finds himself in the enviable position as the best available free agent starting pitcher. Sporting a career 3.84 ERA over 1,182.1 innings pitched he is not the #1 or #2 starter he will be paid like this winter, but Garza is a good #3 and can improve any team’s starting rotation. The team that eventually signs Garza is an early favorite to win the “Worst free agent contract given during the offseason” award.
Prediction: Re-Signs with Texas, 5-years $82.5 million
2) Masahiro Tanaka RHP Japan
Comparisons between Tanaka and Yu Darvish are natural as two young, dominant Japanese pitchers, but that is where the comparisons should end, as Tanaka simply does not have Darvish’s pure stuff. That said, it only takes one team to believe Tanaka is the next Darvish, and sign him to a large contract on top of the expected exorbitant posting fee. After posting a 20-0 record with a 1.24 ERA this past season in the Japanese League, look for Tanaka to match or exceed Darvish’s contract (6-years $60 million plus $51.7 million in a posting fee) from two years ago.
Prediction: Signs with New York Yankees, 6-years $66 million + $55 million posting fee
3) Ervin Santana RHP Kansas City Royals
Struggling through a terrible 2012 season with a 5.16 ERA over 178 innings, Santana was jettisoned by pitching-needy Anaheim to Kansas City last winter in an obvious salary dump. Santana, however, flourished in his new surroundings in 2013, posting a 3.24 ERA over 32 starts and 211 innings pitched. Only 30-years-old (31 in December) with no real history of injuries, Santana might get the most surprising contract this winter, probably in the range of 4-5 years at $13+ million per season.
Prediction: Signs with Los Angeles Dodgers, 4 years $52 million
4) AJ Burnett RHP Pittsburgh Pirates
After struggling for three seasons as a Yankee, the Pirates bought low on Burnett two seasons ago and have reaped the benefits of two outstanding seasons, posting a 16-10 record with a 3.51 ERA in 202.1 innings pitched in 2012 and a 3.30 ERA in 191 innings this year. Almost 37-years-old Burnett is expected to receive a qualifying offer from Pittsburgh this winter, and decide between a return to the Steel City or announcing his retirement.
Prediction: Re-signs with Pittsburgh, Accepts Qualifying Offer 1-year $14.1 million
5) Tim Lincecum RHP San Francisco Giants
Remember when Lincecum won back-to-back National League Cy Young Awards in 2008 and 2009? Well unfortunately that was four seasons and about 3-4mph on his fastball ago, and now Lincecum enters free agency as a 29-year-old coming off two consecutive disappointing seasons with a 5.18 ERA over 186 innings in 2012 and a 4.37 ERA in 197.2 innings pitched in 2013. One of the more interesting and unique free agents in recent memory, odds are Lincecum and the Giants eventually agreeing to terms.
Prediction: Re-signs with San Francisco, 2-years $24 million plus incentives
6) Ubaldo Jimenez RHP Cleveland Indians
Only three years ago at age-26 Jimenez finished 3rd in the National League Cy Young voting based on his 19-8 record, 2.88 ERA, and 214 strikeouts in 221.2 innings pitched for the Rockies. Then Colorado suddenly parted with Ubaldo, sending him to Cleveland and his career imploded in the American League, as he gave the Indians a 5.10 ERA in 2011 and a 5.40 ERA in 2012. However after a few mechanical adjustments early this season, Jimenez rejuvenated his failing career, providing the Indians with a 3.30 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 182.2 innings this past season.
A truly perplexing pitcher, Jimenez has as much boom or bust potential as any free agent in recent memory. Only 30-years-old, it will be fascinating to see which major league team gambles on his immense talent this offseason by signing him to a hefty, multiyear contract.
Prediction: Signs with New York Mets, 4-years $47 million
7) Hiroki Kuroda RHP New York Yankees
Like a fine wine Kuroda only gets better with age, giving the Yankees another strong season in 2013 with a 3.31 ERA and only 191 hits allowed over his 201.1 innings pitched. Kuroda will turn 39 prior to Opening Day, and will cost a draft pick as compensation for signing elsewhere this winter, so his market will be extremely limited; this likely means Kuroda either returns to the Bronx for another season in 2014 or elects to retire.
Prediction: Re-Signs with the Yankees, 1-year $16 million
8) Bronson Arroyo RHP Cincinnati Reds
Bronson Arroyo is one of the most consistent pitchers in major league baseball, pitching 199+ innings in nine consecutive seasons. A 36-year-old pitcher with a career 4.19 ERA and a track record of durability, Arroyo should be seeking a comparable contract to what Ryan Dempster signed last winter (2-years $26.5 million) from a contender in need of a veteran to round out their rotation.
Prediction: Signs with Atlanta, 2-years $26 million w/ a 3rd year vesting option
9) Ricky Nolasco RHP Los Angeles Dodgers
Nolasco has spent the past few years grinding away with little recognition or run support for the lowly Marlins, but should be a popular name in free agency as a solid #4 starter. Nolasco would be wise to stay in the National League, preferably in a pitcher’s park, and has indicated a desire to sign with a team on the West Coast.
Prediction: Signs with Anaheim, 3-years $33 million