After beginning 2013 as a relative afterthought to pitch in Washington, Tanner Roark has captured the attention of NatsTown as one of the most pleasant surprises in a rather disappointing season.  After posting wins in seven of his first eight decisions, not to mention his wild haircut and the unique pronunciation of his last name (Row-ARK), Roark has quickly gone from a relatively unknown pitcher in the Nationals’ organization into one of the more intriguing characters on the pitching staff.

Acquired along with Ryan Tatusko from the Texas Rangers in exchange for Cristian Guzman back in July 2010, Roark was not always a highly-valued prospect within the Nationals’ organization.  After struggling through a difficult 2011 at Double-A Harrisburg with a 4.69 ERA over 117 innings, Roark was then promoted to Triple-A the following season and had a rather forgettable year with a 4.39 ERA and 161 hits allowed in 147.2 innings pitched. 

However this season at 26-years-old Roark enjoyed a breakout performance in his second year at Triple-A, posting a 3.15 ERA and 84 strikeouts against only 20 walks in 105.2 innings pitched.  His consistent excellence, combined with numerous injuries to the major league rotation, forced his promotion to Washington in early August.  Roark has capitalized on his opportunity late in the season, posting a stunning 1.51 ERA over his 53.2 innings pitched.  Still somewhat skeptical of his breakout performance in 2013, I decided to do an Armchair Evaluation of Tanner Roark’s final start of the season last Sunday.

In his final audition of the season against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Roark continued his brilliance, pitching seven innings and allowing one run on three hits with three strikeouts against only one walk.  According to my notes Roark threw 95 pitches in his outing, 75 for strikes and only 20 for balls, consisting of 57 fastballs (60%), 22 sliders (23.2%), 15 curveballs (15.8%), and one changeup (1%).  Roark overwhelmed the Diamondbacks’ lineup getting 16 groundouts against only one fly ball out and threw first-pitch strikes to 19 of the 27 batters he faced. 

Roark featured an above-average sinker which averaged 92.88mph, topping out at 94.28mph, a solid 82-84mph slider which reached 85.47mph, an overhand 74-76mph curveball, and the rare 82mph changeup. (Thanks BrooksBaseball.net)  Roark’s delivery has a bit more effort than might be ideal, but there is plenty of deception in his motion and he repeats it fairly well.  In addition, as evidenced by the one walk allowed in this appearance and his 1.8 BB/9 ratio this season, Roark shows good command and control of the strike zone. 

The only real criticism of Roark’s performance Sunday was the lack of swings-and-misses he produced from Arizona hitters, inducing only five over his 95 total pitches.  The lack of whiffs makes some sense, as Roark purposely pounds the strike zone, lacks a blazing high-90s fastball, and possesses only average breaking pitches.  As he did Sunday, Roark relies on generating groundball outs and limiting his walks allowed, but only posting a 6.7 K/9 ratio this season (and notching only three strikeouts on Sunday) is a slight reason for concern going forward.  

After savoring every pitch of the last game of the Nationals’ 2013 season and putting Roark under a microscope, I am excited about his future.  Certainly his lack of a monster fastball and overwhelming breaking pitches limits his ability to generate a large number of whiffs, and ultimately limits his ceiling to that of a #4/#5 starter or quality relief pitcher.  That said Roark understands these weaknesses and pitches to his strengths, namely throwing quality strikes and producing a large number of ground balls with his sinker. 

If it was up to me, I would permanently move Roark to the bullpen and use him as a high-leverage, multi-inning reliever in a Craig Stammen type role, throwing 85-110 innings per season.  As a reliever I believe he could find some additional velocity on his fastball and his ability to generate ground balls would be a tremendous asset with inherited base runners in the late innings. 

Roark will enter next spring training in competition with Taylor Jordan, Nate Karns, Ross Ohlendorf, and perhaps a free agent to serve as the team’s #5 starter, with the fall back plan likely involving moving him to the bullpen.  Either way, Roark proved in Sunday’s start and during the course of his 53 inning audition that he is a quality, major league caliber arm who should be an asset in the future either as a starter or in relief.