Tuesday evening I was fortunate enough to attend the Nationals game against Tampa Bay in some magnificent seats directly behind home plate. Most fans would have been more eager to see Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, or Gio Gonzalez as the starting pitcher that evening and witness their electric stuff, however, I was intrigued with the opportunity to watch Chien-Ming Wang, as his three previous starts left me unimpressed to say the least. As the self-professed “World’s Biggest Ross Detwiler Mark”, I was rather skeptical of Davey Johnson’s decision to replace Detwiler in the rotation with Wang, but Wang was solid down the stretch last season and has finished in the top-3 in the Cy Young voting, so I have tried to keep an open mind about him. As a fan and “scout”, I was hoping to see improved movement and velocity on his sinker and Wang using his off-speed pitches to keep the hitters honest and not sitting exclusively on the sinker.
Of the 77 pitches Wang threw over the course of 3.1 innings Tuesday evening, batters swung and missed only twice, once on a slider and the other on a split-finger, which means he did not produce a single whiff on the 57 sinkers he threw against a Rays lineup featuring no designated hitter and 2 non-regulars. Before he was mercifully pulled from the game, he allowed 5 earned runs on 7 hits, including a 410 foot home run to Carlos Pena, and 3 walks against only one strikeout. For the season, Wang has allowed 46 baserunners (29 hits, 14 walks, and 3 hit-batters) in 20.2 innings pitched with a 6.10 ERA and 11 strikeouts. If not for an extraordinarily high percentage of stranded runners (79.2% for Wang vs. MLB league average 71%-72%), his numbers might look dramatically worse. In addition, if one was looking for signs of optimism, Wang’s average velocity on his sinker Tuesday evening was 90.6 mph, the average through four starts is the same 90.6mph, and in 2011 when he returned to the major leagues, it was 90.6mph, down from his career average 92.2mph: now more than 2 years removed from surgery, one might logically conclude that Wang’s velocity has plateaued. (Note – Thanks to Fangraphs.com and BrooksBaseball.net for the statistics stated above.)
Last winter I theorized that with an additional six months to continue to strengthen his throwing shoulder that Chien-Ming Wang might increase both the downward movement and speed he could throw his sinker; unfortunately, from what the numbers tell us and from what my eyes witnessed the other night, his sinker velocity and movement appears to have stagnated, leading me to conclude my theory was incorrect. The Nationals should be commended for giving Wang an opportunity to rehabilitate his shoulder and gambling on a highly improbable comeback, but the team is in a pennant race and cannot continue to give Wang a start every 5th day in hopes he rounds into form, as it is not fair to the other 24 guys not to give them the best chance to bring home a victory that night. Right now, Ross Detwiler’s 3.34 ERA over 62 innings and 92.3mph fastball gives the team a much better chance to win every 5th day than does Wang, and because Detwiler is 26 years old and signed through 2015 against Wang’s age of 32 and a free agent status at the end of the season, Ross is also a much larger part of the Nationals future. Thus, I think the team is hindering itself both in the short-term and the long-term by continuing to use Chien-Ming Wang as their 5th starter, as he should be returned to low leverage situations in long relief until a spot in the rotation opens up due to injury or his performance and sinker significantly improves.
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