Part 4 of our 2012 MLB Draft Preview finds us narrowing our focus to the Washington Nationals and investigating what their strategy will look like heading into Monday’s Rule 4 draft.  As a result of a strong finish last September, the Nationals will choose 16^th overall in the 1^st round, the first time they have selected outside the top-10 since 2006 when they selected Chris Marrero at pick #15 and Colton Willems at #22.  Since then, the Nationals have spent their 1^st round picks to take LHP Ross Detwiler #6 overall in 2007, RHP Aaron Crow at #9 in 2008, RHP Stephen Strasburg at #1 overall and RHP Drew Storen at pick #10 in 2009, in 2010 the Nationals chose phenom OF Bryce Harper #1 overall, and last season the team opted for Rice University 3B Anthony Rendon at #6.

The Nationals have ten selections in the first 10 rounds of the 2012 draft, and 40 selections overall in the now 40 round draft, leaving them a bonus pool of $4,436,200 to sign their first ten picks, with the recommended slot bonuses breaking down as follows: Round 1 (#16) $2,125,000, Round 2 (#80) $630,000, Round 3 (#111) $428,500, Round 4 (#144) $311,700, Round 5 (#174) $233,400, Round 6 (#204) $174,900, Round 7 (#234) $145,300, Round 8 (#264) $135,700, Round 9 (#294) $126,700, and Round 10 (#324) $125,000 (Tip of the Fedora to BaseballAmerica.com for these dollar figures).  Rules state that teams may exceed their bonus dollars pool by 5% without losing a future 1^st round pick, meaning the Nationals maximum total dollars available without incurring a non-financial penalty is $4,658,010.  In rounds 11-40, players are allowed a maximum $100,000 bonus, and every dollar that exceeds $100,000 must be taken from the team’s overall bonus pool.

Examining the last 3 years draft results (2009-2011), in 2009 the Nationals drafted 51 overall players, 30 total pitchers and 21 batters, and in the first 10 rounds, they drafted 8 pitchers and 3 hitters.  In 2010, the club drafted 50 total players, 23 pitchers and 27 hitters, and in the top-10 rounds, the team took 4 pitchers and 6 hitters.  Finally, last season, the Nationals selected 51 overall prospects, 26 pitchers and 25 hitters, including 8 pitchers and 3 batters in the first 10 rounds.  Spanning 32 total picks in the top-10 rounds the previous 3 years, the Nationals have selected 24 college players, 4 junior college players, and 4 high school players, of which the overall breakdown was 20 pitchers and 12 hitters.  Some trends we can deduce from this information is the team’s preference for collegiate players in the 1^st round, an emphasis on pitchers and collegiate players in the first 10 rounds, and specifically in rounds 6-10, a concentration of college pitching.

One tendency we should expect to continue is the Nationals preference to draft collegiate pitching with velocity in the 1st round.  Of course, most every organization is seeking similar prospects, but I expect the Nationals to focus even more sharply in these areas after trading away 4 prospects, including 3 pitchers, in the Gio Gonzalez trade and the graduation of many top prospects to the major leagues in the past few seasons.  Teams rarely draft for need, but the Nationals are rather thin with pitching depth at Double-A and Triple-A, and a polished collegiate pitcher would slot nicely into the farm system.  Another trend we should expect the Nationals to continue with this year is the drafting of college juniors and seniors in Rounds 6-10 as the organization has shown a preference for college players since GM Mike Rizzo took over, and considering the new bonus pool, this could be a nice place to save money to disperse elsewhere in the draft.  Finally, the Nationals have a history of going over-slot in the top-5 rounds, A.J. Cole, Brian Goodwin, Sammy Solis, and Kylin Turnbull amongst others, and because of the noteworthy high school talent available this year, I expect the team to draft some difficult to sign prospects in Rounds 2-5.  Not to mention that MLB rules state that if a team fails to sign a pick in the first 3 rounds, they receive a compensation pick the following year, giving the front office a bit of a safety net in case of difficult negotiations.

Taking this all into account, expect the Nationals to select a college pitcher in Round 1, some perceived difficult to sign prospects in Rounds 2-5, and will conclude the top 10 Rounds with college and junior college pitching.  Therefore, my prediction for the Nationals selection Monday evening at #16 is…

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Although Stroman has the sheer talent and ability to be selected prior to #16, the lack of historical success for sub-6 feet tall right-handed starting pitchers will make organizations in my belief ahead of the Nationals pause and eventually decide on another “safer”, more physical prospect.  Stroman, drafted by the Nationals in the 18^th round in 2009, could potentially pitch in the major leagues this summer if shifted to the bullpen and a club could ultimately use him as a starting pitcher in the future, similar to the development path the Chicago White Sox have used with LHP Chris Sale since drafting him in 2010.

If Stroman is off the board, I assume the Nationals will continue to focus their attention heavily toward collegiate players, primarily pitchers, with possibilities including Texas A&M RHP Michael Wacha, Oklahoma State LHP Andrew Heaney, Mississippi State RHP Chris Stratton, and Arizona State SS Deven Marrero.

In the final installment of our 2012 MLB Draft Preview, I will be producing a Mock Draft in addition to answering a few draft questions collected from the readers.  Thank you for reading.

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