February 15th, 2011
In the past few days I have had two readers email me with similar questions, so I decided to combine them into one. So as a tip of the fedora to Alex S. from Delaware and Mr. Anonymous… “While reading your site, I never saw your opinion of the Jayson Werth signing or the Josh Willingham trade. What did you think?”
While I acknowledge that these were two of the biggest moves of the off-season, both happened so long before I started this site that I concluded that the topic had been discussed ad nauseum. But since two people took the time to ask, I am happy to comment on both transactions.
Washington Nationals Sign OF Jayson Werth to a 7-Year $126 million Contract
Sound the alarms, the Washington Nationals finally stepped into the big leagues. After a long history of being Katherine Heigl in 27 Dresses, the Nationals came out of nowhere and signed RF Jayson Werth to the biggest contract in team history and one of the biggest in the history of baseball. I must say as well, this was one of the biggest surprises I can remember in my 30+ years as a Washington sports fan. I was completely blindsided, both by the magnitude of the contract and the lunacy of it.
Werth, 32 in May, posted a tremendous .296/.388/.532 with 27 home runs in 554 at-bats in 2010 and is currently a top 3 right fielder in the major leagues. I believe he has been underrated these past few seasons being surrounded with the other big name great players in Philadelphia. Werth will play right field for the Nationals the next few seasons and will likely shift to left field for the second half of this contract. He should have one to two more peak seasons and then begin his career decline about the time the Nationals anticipate competing for championships.
While I firmly believe the Nationals needed to make a big splash this off-season in an attempt to create some interest for this season and the team in general, this decision reeks of the desperation and pressure the organization must have felt to produce results. Jayson Werth makes the Nationals a better team in 2011, but to give a 7-year contract to a 32 year old player with injury history and better career statistics in Citizens Bank Park than on the road leads me to believe there is little to no chance that the organization does not regret this deal in the future. I expected Werth to get overpaid this off-season with a 5-year contract for about $80-85 million; therefore, using “NatsGM math” (trademark pending) Werth was overpaid by two years and $41-$46 million dollars. In light of the potential for this contract to stiffle the organization in years 2015, 2016, and 2017, I cannot support this organizational decision.
Overall Grade…. D to D-
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After signing RF Jayson Werth a few weeks earlier, the Nationals felt that they had a surplus in the outfield and decided to let CF Nyjer Morgan and LF Roger Bernadina either play their way into or out of the Nationals plans in 2012 and beyond. Thus Josh Willingham, a solid corner outfielder and good clubhouse influence whom has struggled with injuries throughout his career, was deemed expendable and traded to the Oakland Athletics for RHP Henry Rodriguez and OF Corey Brown. At 32 years old with one year left on his contract, the Nationals made the proper decision to trade Willingham for pieces more likely to contribute in the future. Therefore, the better question may be…. Was this the right deal to make?
RHP Henry Rodriguez has an impressive arm that reportedly hits 98-100mph with a decent breaking pitch and reportedly has made strides to improve his below average control. In general, I do not think it is good decision to trade for relievers, as their value fluctuates too much from season to season and the taxing nature of their workloads makes the injury risk too great. That said, his potential as a closer or strong set-up man makes him intriguing.
OF Corey Brown, drafted 59th overall by the A’s in 2007, was very impressive in AA in 2010, posting a .320/.415/.502 in 386 plate appearances after bombing in his first attempt in AAA. Brown has great speed and quality defensive skills, but has struggled with strikeouts in his minor league career and at 25 years old is getting old for a prospect. Brown profiles as a solid 4th outfielder on a playoff team, and should carve out a solid career in the majors while having the potential to be a quality starter if he cuts down on his strikeouts.
Overall, I was hoping the Nationals would receive two prospects in return for Willingham with fewer question marks, but both have the potential to be strong assets for the Nationals when they expect to contend. If Rodriguez is not able to harness his control and if Brown cannot cut down on the strikeouts, then Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s win this trade hands down. However, if either or both happen, this trade becomes a big win for the Nationals and that leads me to give this deal a solid thumbs up.
Overall Grade: B or B- … closer to the B
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