Early Sunday morning, the Nationals accomplished their top off-season priority, not to mention bringing a big smile to most every fan’s face, by announcing the signing of third baseman Ryan Zimmerman to a long-term contract extension that should keep him in Washington for the duration of his career. According to published reports, Zimmerman and the Nationals agreed to a 6-year extension worth $100 million dollars, including a 2020 club option for $18 million dollars with a $2 million dollar buyout: in addition, this contract includes a full no-trade clause and $10 million of this contract is deferred until after his playing days are finished in a personal services contract with the organization. This extension, when coupled with his current contract, guarantees Zimmerman $126 million dollars through 2019 if his buyout is exercised, with a maximum value of 9-years and $142 million dollars if the 2020 club option is exercised.
Ryan Zimmerman, the first ever draft pick of the Washington Nationals as the 4th overall selection in the 2005 draft, has been the “Face of the Franchise” ever since that day. Zimmerman, already a seven year veteran at the young age of 27, possesses a career .288/.355/.479 batting line with 128 career home runs, one gold glove and two silver slugger awards to his credit. Over the course of the last three seasons, using the metric WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Zimmerman has accumulated a 17.0 total, good for 12th best among position players in major league baseball, ahead of more recognized superstars such as Robinson Cano, Prince Fielder, and Matt Kemp and behind only one third baseman, Evan Longoria. (Thank you, Fangraphs.com) In light of this evidence, it is difficult to argue that Ryan Zimmerman is not one of, if not the most underrated player in major league baseball.
All well-deserved accolades aside, this still does not answer the question: Was this a smart signing for the Nationals? It is worth noting that only five other players in baseball are currently signed through 2019, namely Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, and Matt Kemp, exclusive company indeed for Zimmerman. While the Nationals are undoubtedly happy with the positive response to the signing by the fan base and appreciate the good will, did the team make the smart move locking him up now, two years prior to free agency and coming off an injury-marred season with only 12 home runs in 101 games? The history of similar extensions is mixed; surely the St. Louis Cardinals do not regret signing Albert Pujols to a 7-year $100 million dollar contract in 2004 three years prior to his free agency and similarly, the Detroit Tigers must be pleased with their 6-year extension in December 2007 to Miguel Cabrera two years prior to his free agency. On the other hand, I am sure the San Diego Padres regret signing Jake Peavy to his extension, as Toronto regrets the long-term deal to Alex Rios and the Minnesota Twins with Justin Morneau. The common theme amongst long-term extensions is that the team does well if the player remains healthy and poorly if the player becomes injury prone, thus deals of this magnitude often are easy to conclude if the team made a wise decision or not.
As with most long-term contracts in baseball, the Nationals are assuming most of the risk signing him for eight years through his age 34 season but Ryan Zimmerman represents one of the very few times when I believe a player has true intrinsic value to an organization and to a fan base. If Zimmerman can continue to average a WAR of 5-6 per season for the next 5-6 seasons, the Nationals will be overjoyed with this extension, unfortunately anything short of this production and it will be viewed negatively. While I question this contract as ultimately being a “hometown discount” as it was described, I believe this to be a fair deal for both sides as it provides Zimmerman the security of knowing he should be a career National and assuming he stays relatively healthy, these terms should not significantly hinder the Nationals financially in the future. I worry about the risk involved in any contract like this but ultimately the Nationals made a wise move to lock up Zimmerman for the rest of his career, and I fully support this decision from the Nationals front office.
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A “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to Ryan Zimmerman – stepping back from my usual critical analysis, as a Nationals fan, Zimmerman is everything that is right about baseball, has suffered through the darker days of this franchise, and deserves to be here for the good days ahead. Congrats and cheers to you!
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