Now that ESPN has slowed down its near-obsessive NFL coverage, and pitchers and catchers report to spring training later this week, I thought it was an appropriate time to review the moves from this winter’s Hot Stove season and rank my favorites. Although I do not use a formal scoring system, each move was judged on the terms of the contract, the risk verses reward for the club, and the potential to improve the team. For the most part, General Managers and their front offices have shown restraint this winter and done a nice job staying true to their process, but these moves, in particular, stand out as the best of this off-season.
Honorable Mention: Washington Nationals sign Edwin Jackson 1-year $11 million, Cincinnati Reds sign RHP Ryan Madson for 1-year $8.5 million, New York Yankees sign RHP Hiroki Kuroda 1-year $10 million, Tampa Bay Rays sign first baseman Carlos Pena 1-year $7.25 million, and the team that signs Roy Oswalt cheaply-
#5 -> San Diego Padres acquire first baseman Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Grandal, right-handed starting pitcher Edinson Volquez, and reliever Brad Boxberger from Cincinnati for RHP Mat Latos
This does not slight Cincinnati’s decision to trade for him, as Mat Latos is a terrific top-of-the-rotation starter and a solid fit with the Reds, but San Diego received quite a haul in return, as Alonso, Grandal, and Boxberger have the potential to be long-term solutions for the Padres at first base, catcher, and closer, respectfully. Furthermore, the optimist in me would point out that Edinson Volquez, under team control through 2013, has talent, winning 17 games and appearing in the all-star game in 2008, and has the potential to rebound nicely in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park. It appears as though it will take San Diego another season or two before they are prepared to contend for the playoffs, therefore, trading away Latos at this time was the proper move, and GM Josh Byrnes did well to acquire so much major league ready talent in this deal.
#4 -> St. Louis Cardinals sign OF Carlos Beltran for 2-years $26 million
Although he will be 35 in April, Beltran is still an outstanding hitter as his .300/.385/.525 batting line from 2011 shows, and his reasonable defense in right field will allow Lance Berkman to shift back to his more natural defensive position of first base. Make no mistake, Beltran will not make up for the loss of Albert Pujols, but signing him for only two seasons makes this a solid gamble, as his addition should make up for 70%-80% of Albert’s production at a fraction of the cost.
#3 -> Seattle Mariners acquire catcher/first baseman Jesus Montero and RHP Hector Noesi from the Yankees for RHP Michael Pineda and prospect Jose Campos
Let me start by saying that I think the Yankees made a solid move as well, as Pineda was a much needed improvement to their starting rotation and Campos is an underrated prospect, while trading away two pieces that they can replace internally. Similarly, the Mariners also dealt from their strength, namely impressive starting pitching depth, to receive Jesus Montero, a young, impact slugger that slots perfectly in the heart of the Mariners’ offensive-starved lineup, and Hector Noesi, a personal favorite of mine that was consistently overlooked in New York – do not be surprised if Noesi takes advantage of the transition from the AL East and Yankee Stadium to the AL West and Safeco Field and produces a few seasons similar to Michael Pineda’s 2011 season (3.74 ERA, 171 innings pitched, a 3.15 K/BB rate and 3.4 Wins Above Replacement). Trading away Pineda and Campos is a gamble for any General Manager, but Montero and Noesi are such perfect fits in Seattle that it is one of my favorite moves this winter.
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This trade has been impressively dissected by Nationals fans, and has both its fans and detractors, but if nothing else, we can recognize that Oakland General Manager Billy Beane targeted “the right” players in the Nationals farm system and deserves credit for receiving such a substantial haul. Gio Gonzalez is a terrific fit for the Nationals, and excellent, cost-controlled left-handed pitching is always at a premium, nonetheless, to receive three Top 100 prospects in addition to Tom Milone, a strike throwing major league ready starting pitcher, is one of the stronger prospect packages traded away in recent memory. For an organization in transition, Oakland capitalized on Washington’s desire for a power left-handed starting pitcher and rapidly improved the quality and depth of their farm system in one trade, an impressive feat.
#1 -> Arizona Diamondbacks acquire RHP Trevor Cahill and LHP Craig Breslow from Oakland for minor leaguers Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill, and Ryan Cook
As impressive as the haul was for Gio Gonzalez, the package of Parker, Cowgill, and Cook seems paltry in comparison for Trevor Cahill. Cahill and Gonzalez have similar career statistics, and Cahill is two years younger and had already been signed to a favorable contract extension, meaning it is reasonable to expect a similar bounty for both pitchers; while Parker is probably a stronger prospect than any received from Washington, Cowgill and Cook project to be complementary pieces, not above-average starters like Cole, Peacock, and Norris.
Arizona General Manager Kevin Towers did his best David Blaine impression in magically turning one top prospect (Parker), a 24-year old relief prospect (Cook), and 25-year old outfielder (Cowgill) into a marvelous #2 starting pitcher signed through 2017 like Trevor Cahill, a ground ball pitcher perfectly suited for Chase Field, along with a useful reliever in Craig Breslow. This trade seemed like a steal for Arizona at the time, and the package Oakland received looks feeble in comparison to the return San Diego obtained for Mat Latos and Oakland collected for Gio Gonzalez weeks later, making this my choice for the best move by any General Manager this off-season.
This “Tip of the Fedora” is a Happy Valentine’s Day wish to everyone, and a special nod to my two favorite Valentines, my wife Mrs. NatsGM, and my Mom – I hope everyone has a lovely day.
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