Let’s Make a Deal

As the ink has now dried on the Edwin Jackson contract and Gio Gonzalez’s extension, I thought this might be an interesting time to think about the possibility of the Nationals trading from their current starting pitching depth to acquire a much needed bat in center field.  Chien-Ming Wang was signed as a free agent this winter, rendering him untradeable until June, and Ross Detwiler’s youth and potential makes him someone the organization wants to keep, leaving veteran left-handed pitcher John Lannan as the most likely starting pitcher to be traded prior to Opening Day.  Using this logic, I have tried to look around the major leagues for a possible trading partner, ideally a team having a surplus of outfielders and a clear need for a reliable starting pitcher.  So in a grand homage to Monty Hall, here is a baseball edition of “Let’s Make a Deal”!

Nationals trade LHP John Lannan to the Chicago Cubs for OF Marlon Byrd and a “Prospect”

Why this trade makes sense?

The Cubs are rebuilding and have center field prospect Brett Jackson ready and waiting for an opportunity in Chicago, thus the chance to clear a space for him, receive a pitcher under control through 2013, and clear about $1.5 million in payroll in 2012 would seem to fit within their plans.  While Marlon Byrd is not a long-term solution for the Nationals, he would provide solid defense in center field and his career .281/.339/.420 batting line would represent a large increase in production from last season.

Why it might not work?

This deal would make more sense from the Cubs perspective if they had already traded RHP Matt Garza, as they would have opened a spot for a starting pitcher and would have a greater need for a productive innings-eater like John Lannan.  Although Byrd would clearly improve the team in 2012, I believe Lannan has a bit more overall value, as he is under club control through 2013: this belief leads to the assumption that the Nationals would insist on an additional prospect or player be included in such a deal, making a trade harder to foresee as the Cubs are looking to rebuild, not trade from their farm system.

Nationals trade LHP John Lannan + “Prospects” to Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for OF Peter Bourjos

Why this trade makes sense?

There is a clear fit with the Nationals and Peter Bourjos, and well-respected baseball columnist Nick Cafardo from the Boston Globe mentioned in his column this past weekend rumors of a Lannan-for-Bourjos swap.  Unless the Angels want to count on RHP Jerome Williams (remember him from 2007 Nationals fans) as their 5th starter this season, Lannan would represent a clear upgrade to the back-end of Anaheim’s rotation.

Why it might not work?

Even with the presence of elite prospect Mike Trout prepared to take over the center field position in case of a trade, Bourjos is still worth significantly more than Lannan, and I question how many more prospects the Nationals would part with in one off-season, as the Gio Gonzalez trade depleted much of the depth in the farm system.  While I would support virtually any trade to bring Peter Bourjos to Washington, I struggle to imagine a hypothetical trade that makes sense from the Angels’ perspective.

Nationals trade LHP John Lannan + a “Prospect”  to the Minnesota Twins for OF Ben Revere

Why this trade makes sense?
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The Minnesota Twins currently have center fielder Denard Span signed to a long-term contract, not to mention the organization’s #2 prospect according to Baseball America is Joe Benson, also a solid center field prospect, maturing in AAA.  Revere, while a strong defensive outfielder, does not profile in left field because of his lack of power and seems somewhat redundant with the presence of Span and Benson.  Revere has an impressive career .385 on-base percentage in the minor leagues and would be a nice fit as Washington’s center fielder and leadoff hitter.  Finally, John Lannan seems like a prototypical Minnesota Twins pitcher, with his strong ground ball tendencies and lack of overwhelming stuff.

Why it might not work?

As of the present moment, it does not appear that Minnesota has anyone to replace Revere in left field this season and they seem to have adequate depth in their starting rotation, meaning this deal would force other moves from the Twins, not an ideal scenario this late in the off-season.  While a trade between these two teams might seem to make sense on the surface, upon closer inspection, it does not appear like a good fit at the present time.

Nationals trade LHP John Lannan to the Colorado Rockies for OF Charlie Blackmon

Why this trade makes sense?

Although the Rockies traded for Jeremy Guthrie last week, looking at their current depth chart, it certainly appears as though they could use another reliable starting pitcher.  Besides Guthrie and Jhoulys Chacin, the Rockies starting pitching staff looks youthful and unproven headed into 2012, and adding 180+ innings of a proficient ground ball pitcher like Lannan in Coors Field seems like a natural fit.  Blackmon may also be available as they have Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Michael Cuddyer as starters in the outfield, with Tyler Colvin as a backup and prospect Tim Wheeler waiting in the wings.

Why it might not work?

A deal between these two clubs seemed like a perfect match prior to the Rockies trading for a similar pitcher in Jeremy Guthrie, however, Colorado still needs dependable starting pitching far more than an outfielder.  From the Nationals perspective, there is a question of whether Blackmon can be an everyday starting center fielder in the major leagues, or if he is destined to a career more suited as a backup.  Blackmon’s minor league batting line of .316/.376/.475, left-handed bat and plus athleticism says he could be a starting quality player, but there are enough questions surrounding his ultimate future that the Nationals may hesitate to part with Lannan’s talents.

Sticking with the theme of “Let’s Make a Deal”, I would assume Monty Hall would tell the Nationals as contestants that they had “won” the Chicago Cubs offer of Marlon Byrd and a prospect for John Lannan, as this trade is the most plausible of the four discussed above.  Of course, the Nationals would ask to see what was behind Door #1 and somehow hope to pull off a trade for Peter Bourjos or another more long-term solution: unfortunately trades in major league baseball do not work like television game shows, and the likelihood of the Nationals substantially improving from the Cubs offer is unlikely. Like many Nationals fans, I expect the team to part with John Lannan prior to Opening Day and think GM Mike Rizzo would be making a shrewd “deal” if he could receive Marlon Byrd and a prospect from the Cubs in return.

 

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6 thoughts on “Let’s Make a Deal

  1. Instead of sending a prospect along with Byrd, what if the Cubs simply picked up the $1.5m difference (or some portion thereof) between Byrd’s contract and Lannan’s?

  2. Three names: BJ Upton, Peter Bourjos, and (really dreaming) McCutchen.

    The Nats aren’t going to trade any prospects for a right handed hitter unless they get one of these three in return. Period.

    As for Marlon Byrd I think the plan now is to try the much younger Ian Desmond and Steven Lombardozzi at lead off first.

    And besides what do they really need in the outfield and the infield for that matter. An impact left-handed hitter period. End of story. Bryce Harper is a rookie and you can’t rely on a rookie. Its why they were players for Fielder and will likely be for Votto when the time comes.

    As a temporary fix I believe its better to go out and sign Johnny Damon. The prospects are far too valuable for your cockamamie trades … other than Borjous which I could certainly see. Damon has the big left-handed bat and a veteran presence and its unlikely he would get more than 1 year plus option to play for the Nats.

    • Peric-

      Thanks for writing, hope you are doing well. As for your suggestions, for the purposes of this column, the Tampa Bay Rays would have little to zero interest in John Lannan, so I did not consider a trade for Upton as part of this exercise. Also, if the Nationals wanted to acquire Upton, I would think they would have done so by now.

      As for Bourjos, as I wrote in my piece, I would only hope and wish the Nationals could trade for him, but I do not see a hypothetical trade that would interest the Angels that the Nationals would also find acceptable at this point.

      Next, I don’t think the Nats have the ammunition to trade for McCutchen after the Gio Gonzalez trade, as the Nationals won’t trade Bryce Harper, and cannot trade Anthony Rendon until next August.

      Also, if I thought Johnny Damon could passably play a defensive position at this late point in his career, I would hand him the pen to sign the contract with the Nats, but he is a DH at this point in his career.

      Finally, while Byrd is a right-handed batter, he has a .339 career on-base percentage, of which Ian Desmond has never produced in his career and I would wager would be a 50-50 proposition to do so for the rest of his career going forward.

      As I did not perfectly articulate in my piece, while Byrd might not be the ideal, long-term solution for the Nationals in CF, he would represent a massive upgrade from 2011 and an upgrade from what they should reasonably expect in 2012, and such an improvement likely would be worth parting with John Lannan, especially if they could receive an interesting prospect in the deal as well.

  3. I also struggle to imagine a trade for Bourjos, but here is one I think could work:

    Nats get Bourjos & Abreu
    Obviously, the Nats don’t really need a DH type like Abreu, but I think the Angels would only do a deal if they cut some significant salary. (And maybe Abreu fits Davey’s “big, hairy chested” PH mold)

    Angels get Lannan, HGon, Flores & Bernadina (or maybe Eury Perez)
    It would be tough to give up Henry, as he looked awesome at the end of the year, but I think Bourjos is a upcoming star, and CF is a much bigger need for the Nats right now. I think Lannan & Flores give the Angels some depth at positions they could use it, and, as noted, I’m guessing they are looking to cut salary after picking up Pujols & Wilson, so would really like to move Abreu, so maybe it could be a win for the Angels as well.

    • Dave, nice to hear from you again… I think you might be on to something with the inclusion of Abreu for salary dumping purposes, though I wonder how much additional payroll the Nationals would be willing to take on this winter, as they have already increased it by about $20 million from last season.

      That said, your offer still feels too light to receive a 3-5 WAR center fielder under control for 5 more seasons and a solid hitter in Abreu. This deal makes the Angels worse in the short run and the players you offer them in return would not bolster them enough in the long-term. Flores is redundant to them with the acquisition of Chris Iannetta this winter and the presence of Hank Conger, and Bernadina does not have a ton of positive trade value either.

      I like your train of thought, but I think the Nats would have to substantially improve the other names in the trade besides Lannan to really grab their attention and get the Angels to say yes. Thanks for writing and sharing your idea.

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