February 4, 2011

I realize this is a Nationals focused website, but there will be times occasionally that I write about other topics. Today is a perfect example as Andy Pettitte officially retired from baseball this afternoon…. Now I write this column still not completely convinced that he will not return to the Yankees at some point in 2011, perhaps very quickly after the Yankees realize how poor their other options are. That said, he stated point blank that he would not be returning in 2011, and he has the reputation as a man of his word.

Pettitte does not receive the recognition that Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera do, but Pettitte was the mainstay of the rotation during the dynasty the Yankees have had the past 15 years. Over his sixteen year career, Pettitte won five World Championships, all with the Yankees, and made three all-star appearances. He retires as the all-time winningest pitcher in postseason history with 19 career wins, also ranking first in postseason starts and innings pitched, second overall with 173 strikeouts and a 3.83 ERA. For his career, Pettitte finishes with 240 wins, a 3.88 ERA, and 2251 Strikeouts. Pettitte is just short of qualifying as a Hall of Famer looking at his regular season statistics, but has a strong case as the best postseason pitcher in baseball history. His admitted use of performance enhancing drugs, though the prototype for how to handle the situation with the media by simply ADMITTING IT, will likely keep him from enshrinement in Cooperstown. That said, he was the backbone of the Yankee rotation for many years and an underappreciated player by baseball fans in general.

* * *

I would like to digress a bit from here and ask the question: What will Brian Cashman do now that Andy Pettitte has retired?

The Yankees seem locked in at three places in the rotation:
#1 -> CC Sabathia… about as steady and rock solid as they come, excellent #1 starter
#2 -> Phil Hughes… showed great promise last season but struggled down the stretch
#3 -> AJ Burnett… struggled mightily in 2010 and was sent to the bullpen in the playoffs, but has 3 years and $50 plus million left on his contract

#4/5 -> A Combination of:
Sergio Mitre, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Ivan Nova, and Manny Banuelos

It is relatively certain that the top three rotations spots are occupied by Sabathia, Hughes, and Burnett. Like I stated above, Sabathia is an ace and should anchor that staff well in 2011. Certainly Hughes and Burnett have great stuff and have shown the ability to pitch as #2 and #3 starters, but to say that both come into this season with questions marks, especially Burnett, would be an understatement. The Yankees should NOT have question marks as their #2 and #3 starters, simply unacceptable for a team with a $180-$200 million payroll. To that end, the #4 and $5 slots are up for grabs between a fringe major leaguer (Sergio Mitre), two pitchers past their primes and recovering from injury (Garcia and Colon), an unknown with limited upside( Nova) and Banuelos, an extremely promising youngster who needs some polish but should be up with the club after the All-Star break.

This rotation desperately needs an Andy Pettitte type in the #2 slot, someone the team can count on for 30 or more starts and close to 200 innings, as they only have one person currently that can be described as solid. By acquiring this pitcher, it would allow Hughes to slot more solidly as the #3 starter, slot Burnett #4, and allow the others to fight to be the 5th Starter. I think the combination of Mitre, Nova, Garcia, and Colon should be able to provide decent to solid results as the #5 starter until Manny Banuelos is ready later this season.

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So what would I do? First I would increase my offer to Pettitte and see if he wants “to pull a Brett Favre”. Assuming that does not work, the best available free agent pitchers RHP Kevin Millwood and RHP Jeremy Bonderman do not provide the upgrade necessary, so I would turn to the trade market. The best available starter involved in trade rumors currently is Philadelphia’s RHP Joe Blanton, not quite the quality of player the Yankees should acquire. I have thought long and hard about the player I would target for the Yankees: Chicago Cubs RHP Carlos Zambrano.

Why for the Cubs: Pretty simple, salary relief. Zambrano is scheduled to make $17.875 million in 2011 and $18.0 million in 2012, with a very unlikely vesting option in 2013 of $19.250 million. Zambrano has suffered from some injuries the past two seasons, and had the infamous fight with Derrek Lee in the dugout last season. I do not expect the Cubs to compete this season, therefore they may want to take the opportunity to lighten their payroll and rid themselves of Carlos. The Cubs, even after trading Tom Gorzelanny to the Nationals last month, still have some pitching depth with Sean Marshall and Andrew Cashner around to fill the rotation slot left open by a Zambrano trade.

Why for the Yankees: Because Zambrano is a very good pitcher when healthy, motivated, and with his head on straight. His numbers are better than one might realize (2010: 129.2 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 4.8 BB/9), and because the Yankees could take on most, if not all of his contract, he likely would not require parting with much talent to acquire. The other names possibly available in trade, LHP Barry Zito, LHP Fausto Carmona, LHP Wandy Rodriguez and RHP Joe Blanton are not as good as Carlos Zambrano and likely would require more valuable prospects in return. I also would gamble that Zambrano returns to form with a change of scenery and the Yankees strong lineup providing him run support.

If the Yankees offered full salary relief ($35.875 million over two seasons) along with two blocked Yankee prospects RHP Hector Noesi ( BA # 7 Ranked Yankee Prospect) and 3B Brandon Laird (BA #10 Ranked Yankee Prospect)… the Cubs would have to listen and think real hard about moving Zambrano to the Bronx. I think this trade could work for both teams.

What do you think? Leave a comment……

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