The Nationals will enter Thursday’s Rule 5 draft with open spaces on their 40-man roster, meaning they will have the opportunity to select a player from another organization if they so choose. Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft if they are not on a major league organization’s 40-man roster and with few exceptions, were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for 4 years or were signed at 18 or younger and have been in the organization for 5 seasons. Each player costs $50,000 to select, and here’s the catch, the draftee must stay on the selecting team’s 25-man roster the entire following season, or be offered back to his previous team for half the original price (aka $25,000). For reference, a few weeks ago the Nationals placed catchers Derek Norris and Jhonatan Solano, first baseman Tyler Moore, and outfielder Eury Perez on the 40-man roster to protect them from selection in this draft, as they all fit the above criteria and would have been eligible. In the prior MLB labor agreement signed 5 years ago, both sides agreed to extend the eligibility for all minor league players an additional season (from 3 or 4 years to 4 or 5 years at present), thus shrinking an already shallow pool of talent. However, for whatever reason, the Rule 5 draft will always hold a certain luster to the hardcore baseball geek like myself.
No matter how hard baseball people try to downplay the importance of this draft, there will be 15-20 players selected tomorrow morning as there are each year. Typically pitching, especially of the left-handed variety, and up-the-middle batters are most in demand year after year. After scouring the lists of whom is available, here are a few names that stood out to me as having a excellent chance of being selected:
Boston Red Sox LHP Cesar Cabral -> Cabral was selected in last years Rule 5 draft, and stands a good chance of being selected again: he possesses a 92-94mph fastball to go along with a curveball, slider and changeup. While he likely is not a long-term starting pitcher, his ability to strike batters out (11.5 K/9) and his quality fastball should make him a future left-handed reliever.
Chicago Cubs IF/OF Ryan Flaherty -> Flaherty is a quality left-handed bat that can play 2B, 3B, and both corner outfield spots and likely can stick as a bench player next year.
Chicago White Sox OF Jordan Danks -> Danks, the brother of LHP John Danks, has outstanding tools, speed and athleticism in addition to his excellent defense in center field. Unfortunately, he has a problem with strikeouts, leading him to produce an unimpressive .258/.340/.408 career batting line. That said, his speed, defensive skills and name recognition could see him get selected tomorrow.
Philadelphia Phillies OF Jiwan James -> James is probably the highest rated prospect available in this year’s Rule 5 draft, but seeing as though he has never played above High-A, it is difficult to believe he could be useful in the major leagues next season. But his sheer talent will likely have a team take a flyer on him tomorrow.
Seattle Mariners LHP Philippe Valiquette -> A left-handed pitcher that can reach 99mph, there is a good chance a team will select him, hoping they can keep him healthy and teach him some much needed control.
Tampa Bay Rays RHP Nick Barnese -> Barnese is a solid starting pitching prospect that has been overlooked in his career by the other more highly rated pitchers the Rays have in their organization. Barnese has a solid fastball, changeup, and slider and does not allow many walks. His stuff will not overwhelm you, but he should be able to stay in the majors as a long-reliever in 2012 and he has the upside of a solid #4 starter down the road.
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Washington Nationals LHP Josh Smoker and RHP Bradley Meyers -> GM Mike Rizzo decided to expose Smoker and Meyers to this draft, and they are the most likely to be chosen from the Nationals tomorrow. Smoker was a highly thought of prospect when he was drafted in the supplemental 1st round in 2007 draft, but immediately lost his stuff after signing his professional contract and struggled for years in his attempt to be a starting pitcher. Finally he shifted to the bullpen this year, saw his fastball reach 98mph and dominated with a 2.31 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 51 innings, although he did walk 37. He has never pitched above High-A Potomac, which makes his selection somewhat unlikely, but left-handed pitchers with that type of velocity and the ability to miss bats gives him a chance to be drafted.
Meyers is almost the exact opposite type pitcher, as a right-handed pitcher with an ordinary 89-92mph fastball, changeup and slider who succeeds by throwing strikes and keeping walks to a minimum. Meyers does not have much of a ceiling, likely a career 5th starter or middle reliever, but there is little doubt in my mind he can pitch in the majors next season and be an asset as an 11th/12th man on a pitching staff. His lack of upside kept the Nationals from protecting him last month, but may not dissuade another team from selecting him and making him a strike-throwing middle reliever next season.
The Nationals have historically been very active in the Rule 5 draft, selecting RHPs Elvin Ramirez and Brian Broderick in 2010, OF Jamie Hoffmann in 2009 (though he was immediately traded to the Yankees for RHP Brian Bruney), RHP Terrell Young in 2008, 3B Matt Whitney and OF Garrett Guzman in 2007, C Jesus Flores and RHP LeVale Speigner in 2006, and OF Tyrell Godwin and 3B Tony Blanco in 2004 and I expect them to continue that trend this year. The Nationals currently have some unoccupied spaces on their bench or they could look for a left-handed reliever to compete for a place in the bullpen. When the Nationals are on the clock tomorrow morning, I expect them to take a long look at IF/OF Ryan Flaherty from the Cubs or LHP Cesar Cabral from the Red Sox, if they are still available, to compete for a place on the team in spring training.
I will be live blogging tomorrow morning’s Rule 5 draft, beginning at 9am ET, so I invite you to join me as I discuss their selection, or lack thereof, and any potential moves the Nationals make between now and then.
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