The past few weeks have been rather slow with signings and trades as the focus of most of major league baseball has been the passage of the new labor agreement.  With that said, the Winter Meetings begin next Monday and we should see a sharp increase in Hot Stove activity in the coming days.  This edition of “Dear NatsGM” has been taken directly from questions I have received recently from my Twitter account @NatsGMdotcom.  Without further ado, here is the latest installment of “Dear NatsGM”…

@NotSlimButShady via Twitter -> @NatsGMdotcom what are your thoughts on Baseball America’s Top 10 List for the Nationals that was recently announced? Also @FelixMarsden via Twitter -> @NatsGMdotcom- To build on his Q, what Nats minor leaguer(s) are your sleepers and who do you like less than consensus?

Baseball America annually ranks each organizations top 10 prospects, and recently they announced their 2011 Nationals list, namely from 1-10, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Brian Goodwin, Alex Meyer, Matt Purke, Sammy Solis, Derek Norris, and Steve Lombardozzi.  I am immediately struck by how improved the system is from 3-4 years ago, when Matt Purke likely would have been the top overall prospect, today he sits 7th.  Even some of the names outside the Top 10 like Destin Hood, Robbie Ray, and Chris Marrero are promising prospects that would find themselves inside the Top 10 of many organizations, so the depth is vastly improved as well.

While this system has made tremendous improvements in the past few years, my only concern is with the “boom or bust” nature of this top 10, as each player after Bryce Harper has questions associated with him.  Four of the players on this list (Rendon, Purke, Goodwin, and Meyer) have yet to play a professional game outside of the Arizona Fall League, and AJ Cole and Brad Peacock do not have especially long track records of success.  That said, I am definitely nitpicking, as this system is one of the ten best in baseball and likely inching toward the Top 5, as the sheer amount of premium talent they possess cannot be ignored.

As for my sleepers in the Nationals system, the names that immediately jump out to me are Jeff Kobernus, Erick Fernandez and to a lesser extent, Destin Hood. I have long been a believer in Jeff Kobernus since I scouted him for a week in Cape Cod a few summers ago (thank you Dannhauser family) as a 15-20 home run and 20 stolen base type player with solid-to plus defense at 3B, whom also possessed the athleticism to play second base as well.  The power I saw a few summers ago has yet to appear as a pro, but the speed has certainly translated and he made nice strides in 2011.

Erick Fernandez was a 2011 25th round pick as a catcher out of Georgetown; Erick has long been a personal favorite of mine, as I have watched him play probably 25+ collegiate games and I believe he can develop into a backup major league catcher, as he has wonderful defensive and leadership skills, along with a surprisingly quick bat.  Fernandez is a player to keep an eye on in 2012.

Finally, Destin Hood is difficult to label a sleeper, as he has been placed on other top prospect lists from other baseball outlets, but I am a big believer in Hood’s talent, athleticism and bat.  He will continue to move slowly through the minors, but in time I think he develops into a Josh Willingham-type player in left field.

I do not wish to sound negative, but a couple players I am less high on than the organization are Brad Peacock and Robbie Ray.  I like Peacock as a quality major league pitcher, but his changeup has not developed enough in recent years for me to believe it will be an effective major league pitch.  Since I do not believe in the changeup, I think Peacock is destined to be a strong late-inning reliever, rather than a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.  Thus, I would attempt to sell high on him this winter to a team that believes in him as a long-term starting pitcher.  Robbie Ray is a quality left-handed pitching prospect who showed success last season at Low-A Hagerstown, producing a 3.13 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 89 innings.  I am not down on him as a prospect, I would prefer to say that I think his numbers are more impressive than his stuff.  With an 87-90mph fastball, I fear that he will struggle at the Double-A level unless he gains some velocity on his fastball.  That said, he is only 19 years old and has a slender frame so the potential is there to add strength and velocity in the next few seasons.  Ray is a solid prospect, but perhaps not quite as strong as his performance might suggest.

Thank you for following me on Twitter and thanks for your question!

@NL_Beast via Twitter -> @NatsGMdotcom If given the choice this winter, do you prefer to sign Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols? This feels like a “Dear NatsGM” question-

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Both Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols would be enormous upgrades to the Nationals lineup, and if GM Mike Rizzo could find a way to sign either one for 6 years or less, I would fully support the decision.  However, I do not see either signing for fewer than seven years, and I fear the regression in the last few years of their contracts.  Therefore, as appealing and talented as both players are, I would have a difficult time supporting either signing: however, if forced to choose, I would sign Pujols, as I think he is the best hitter of the past 20 years and will age like a fine California Cabernet, for the next 6-7 years anyway.  Thanks for following me on Twitter, and thanks for the question!

@JamesPole via Twitter -> “@NatsGMdotcom, what advice would you give a 12 year old boy that shows real promise as a baseball player?”

Thanks for reading and this is a perfect question for “Dear NatsGM”.  The first two things I immediately hear scouts and college recruiters ask about high school athletes are, “What is his GPA?” and “Is he a good young man or is he a knucklehead?”  So the immediate focus in my opinion should be to shore up the off-the-field stuff.

However, I am not an expert on teaching and training youngsters, so I forwarded this question to a former teammate of mine, and former minor league pitcher Matthew Ryan.  Matthew turned down scholarship offers from ACC schools to pitch locally at George Washington (his priority was academics), pitched in the Cape Cod League, and was a major league prospect.  Here was his response to your question:

“First of all, Ryan is correct, focus on education above everything else.  That was always my priority, and should be any young man’s as well.  In terms of on field training, for a pitcher I would recommend you throw, throw and throw some more while working on your mechanics, and run a lot to strengthen your legs.  Do not lift weights until you are about sixteen years old, except to strengthen your throwing arm and rotator cuff and do not throw a curveball until that age as well.  For a hitter, I would say the best piece of advice I could give would be to try and learn to switch hit.”

“Year around as a kid I threw, hit off a tee, long tossed, and soft tossed, constantly working on my throwing and hitting mechanics.  One piece of advice I would share is I wish I had joined the track or cross country team in high school to build up my leg strength.  Another idea I would recommend is long tossing with a softball (I still do to this day) to cause muscle confusion and strengthen and spread out the rotator cuff muscle. Once you are finished tossing the softball for 20 minutes, go to a baseball for 20 minutes and it feels like a ping pong ball.”

A big thank you goes out to Matt for sharing his thoughts and expertise and thank you to @JamesPole for the question.

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to my long-time friend Matthew Ryan, who was kind enough to lend his expertise to the question above.  He and I are working on some additional content for NatsGM this winter, so keep an eye out for his future contributions.  Matthew Ryan, MA, LPC, NCC is a licensed mental health professional, with a Master in Arts in Clinical Psychology and has completed his doctoral classes in Clinical Psychology. He recently started his own private practice, Duffy Counseling Center, in McLean, VA outside of Washington, DC. He works with adolescents and adults. He focuses on depression, anxiety, learning disabilities, sports anxiety/performance, and crisis intervention. His office contact number is 703-255-1091.  Thanks again, my friend!

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