In the midst of rumors surrounding Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen, Friday the Washington Nationals struck a deal with San Diego, receiving catcher Derek Norris from the Padres for prospect Pedro Avila. This trade brings the former Nationals’ prospect back to Washington and could potentially spell the end of Wilson Ramos’s time with the team.
The 27-year-old Norris suffered through a woeful 2016, hitting only .186/.255/.328 with 14 home runs and 42 runs driven in over 125 games played. However, prior to last season, Norris had produced three consecutive quality seasons, including an all-star selection in 2014. For his 5-year major league career, Norris possesses a .231/.309/.380 batting line with 54 home runs in 557 major league games.
Defensively Norris has the reputation as just a mediocre catcher, although the metrics seem to regard him more positively. His pitch framing numbers according to Baseball Prospectus are some of the best in baseball and his career 26% caught stealing percentage is in line with the 27% major league average. He does not have a particularly strong arm or look like a magician behind the dish, but Norris is an average to slightly above-average overall defender.
Washington’s 4th round pick in 2007, Norris was a key part of the Gio Gonzalez trade with Oakland several years ago and this deal returns him to his first professional organization. Norris will enter arbitration for the 2nd time this winter and is projected to earn approximately $4 million. He is under contract through 2018 and represents an intriguing gamble in this winter’s rather lackluster catching market.
In return for Norris, Washington was forced to part with right-handed pitching prospect Pedro Avila, a 19-year-old who spent 2016 in Low-A. Signed as an international free agent in July 2014, Avila threw 93 innings last season for Hagerstown, posting a 3.48 ERA with 93 strikeouts against 86 hits and 38 walks allowed. He is somewhat undersized at his listed 5-11 170lbs, but possesses a solid frame and a fast arm.
Avila has a quality 3-pitch repertoire, featuring a quality low-90s fastball that I have seen touch 94mph, along with a solid mid-70s curveball and a developing changeup. Like most teenagers his command and control need work, but Avila has a potential “55/60” Fastball, “50” Curveball and “40/45” Changeup in the future, giving him a profile of a back-end starter or middle reliever. He does not have a major ceiling, but this is a quality arm with major league potential.
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As I discussed in my Offseason Manifesto several weeks ago, I felt like Derek Norris was the best fit to fill Washington’s hole at catcher this winter in terms of skill-level, salary and cost to acquire. Certainly Norris comes with his warts or else a 27-year-old catcher under contract for two years would not be available for a low-A pitcher. He is coming off a poor year in 2016, is not an elite defender and projects to make nearly $4 million next season.
That said if we can somehow ignore his 2016 statistics or chalk it up to injuries, Norris has the potential to rebound with a change of scenery in Washington. Defensively Norris has developed into a fantastic pitch-framer, which when coupled with his average ability to throw out runners and impressive athleticism, makes him a far better defender than his reputation.
At the plate, Norris hit 14 home runs each of the last two seasons in cavernous San Diego, possesses a career .309 on-base percentage and a career .806 OPS against left-handed pitching. Finally, Washington will be asking Norris to bat 8th in a potent lineup, hoping he can rebound to his career .309 OBP and hit 12-17 home runs while platooning with Jose Lobaton. In other words, the team does not need him to be an all-star, just to bounce back to his previous form.
Overall this is a solid baseball trade for both teams. San Diego is in the midst of a rebuild, making it more valuable for them to clear $4 million from their payroll, acquire an intriguing prospect, and make room for their top prospect Austin Hedges than keep Norris at catcher.
For Washington, they are dealing with some budget constraints this winter and are seeking a major (and likely expensive) upgrade in center field. These factors, combined with the weak free agent class of catchers, made gambling on a 27-year-old who has a past track record of success likely the best choice of many mediocre options. In addition, Norris allows Washington to keep prospect Pedro Severino in the minors next season. Severino looked good in his late season cameo after Wilson Ramos got hurt, but the 23-year-old still needs seasoning in the minors to enhance his skills.
Avila is a solid arm and I wish the Nationals had been able to part with another, lesser prospect. However, Avila’s loss is unlikely to burn Washington in the future. On the other hand, Norris fills a major need and makes Washington’s roster stronger than before the deal. While there is some risk involved, this was a shrewd gamble by Washington’s front office to reacquire Derek Norris.
NatsGM Grade -> B-
Hurrah! No Drew Ward parted with for Norris!! LOL