Signed by the Nationals for $225,000 as an international free agent on July 2, 2013, Robles has skyrocketed up prospect rankings in the past year to become a consensus top-5 prospect in the Nationals’ organization.  This hype had me eager to make the drive to Hagerstown Sunday to watch a doubleheader between the Suns and the Delmarva Shorebirds.

Immediately one is impressed with the physicality of the 18-year-old Robles, a lithe, projectable 6-0 185lbs athlete.  He has long, lean legs and a high waist, portending the ability for him to gain 10-20lbs of quality weight as he matures.  Robles has near “70” grade speed, as evidenced by my 4.12 second home to first time and shows true five-tool potential in center field.

A quick-twitch athlete with lightning fast wrists, Robles generates obvious and noticeable bat speed through his right-handed swing.  This allows the ball to jump off Robles bat and generate more power than one might initially expect looking at his physique.  He is patient at the plate, showing a solid awareness of the strike zone and the ability to recognize spin, especially out of the zone.  Robles’ swing, body frame and baseball mannerisms remind me faintly of former Nationals’ player Alfonso Soriano.  With the obvious caveats that he is raw and needs at-bats, the potential is there for Robles to develop above-average (or better) hit and power tools at the major league level.

In the field Robles uses his outstanding speed and solid throwing arm to profile as a long-term above-average to plus defender in center field.  He showed some difficulty recognizing fly balls off the bat and took some imprecise routes, but was able to outrun his initial instincts to gracefully catch the baseball.  Robles needs repetitions and experience to refine his skills but easily projects as a future “60” or plus defensive outfielder.

This was my first in-person view of Robles and I immediately understood the appeal – his exceptional athleticism, combined with his loud tools, allows him to compensate for his raw skills and compete against players several years older.  Robles needs polish to his all-around game, as he was picked off of first unnecessarily in one game and as mentioned above, struggles with his initial reads in the outfield.  That said Robles is still only 18 and was clearly the most talented player on the field Sunday.
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Robles should spend much of this season at Hagerstown and stands a good chance of receiving a cameo at High-A Potomac late this summer.  Assuming reasonably good health, Robles should spend much of 2017 in Double-A and could see the major leagues sometime later in 2018 as only a 21-year-old.

Robles is a special talent who profiles as an impact two-way centerfielder at his peak.  His floor is reasonably high as a backup major league outfielder due to his defensive skills and exceptional speed.  And if he reaches his ceiling, he could be a .280-.300 hitter with mid-teens power and fringe gold-glove defense in center field.  Robles is an easy top-50 prospect in baseball.

Short Hops

Jefry Rodriguez served as the Suns’ starter in Game 1 and showed precisely why he has long been an enigma in the Nationals’ system.  He sat 92-94mph with his fastball, touching 95 four times, with some quality armside movement and occasional sinking action.  He generally keeps the ball down in the zone with the heater and induced several whiffs with the offering.  Unfortunately Rodriguez showed little feel for his offspeed pitches, failing to command his 80-81mph slider or 87mph changeup.  In fact, according to my notes he did not produce a strike with his slider (five attempts) or changeup (once) during his appearance.  His fastball is a legitimate weapon but until his offspeed pitches, and confidence in them, improve, he will struggle to advance past A-ball.

In Game 2 RHP Joan Baez acted as the starter and the sushi-raw 21-year-old showed promise in his four inning appearance, fighting the cold weather and his release point throughout.  Baez is a lean 6-3 190lbs projectable athlete featuring an 89-93mph fastball, touching 95mph, with some good life and natural cutting action.  In addition Baez showed an inconsistent, but intriguing, 76-79mph slider with some hard 2-plane bite.  The lack of a changeup obviously lends to a future relief profile, but the Nationals are wise to allow him to work as a starter and let him pitch more innings.  There is potential here for Baez to develop two above-average offerings in his fastball and slider, which could make him a future asset as a 7^th/8^th inning reliever.