Predicting a Potential Aroldis Chapman to Washington Trade

photo(83)As the last of the confetti is cleaned up fromthe 2015 All-Star Game, the focus of the baseball world is the rapidly approaching July 31st non-waiver trade deadline. Last year saw a busy July filled with intriguing swaps, with the headliner being the Chicago Cubs sending Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to Oakland for top prospect Addison Russell, Billy McKinney and Dan Straily. This year appears to be a “seller’s market” as there are few teams effectively out of the playoff race and many teams within striking distance of the wild card. One of the best players potentially on the trade block this month is from the slumping Cincinnati Reds, their closer Aroldis Chapman.

The 27-year-old lefty is a 4-time All-Star and the best closer currently in major league baseball, or certainly co-number 1 with San Diego’s Craig Kimbrel. Chapman has a 1.69 ERA and 18 saves thus far in 2015, with 65 strikeouts against 20 walks and 24 hits allowed over 37.1 innings pitched. For his career Chapman has a 2.23 ERA and 131 saves, with 495 strikeouts in his 290 innings pitched – he is nothing short of dominant in shutting down opponents in the late innings. Chapman is making $8.050 million dollars in 2015 and is under salary arbitration through 2016, making him a free agent in 2017.

So what would it take to bring the best reliever in baseball, under contract for another year and a half, to Washington?

The only two comparable trades I could find involved the Andrew Miller to Baltimore deal last summer and Craig Kimbrel to San Diego just prior to Opening Day. Miller was the best reliever available at last year’s trade deadline, but was a free agent at the end of the season – he returned a #3/4 starter LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, who was slumping ahead of the swap but has blossomed since the trade to Boston and a few mechanical adjustments by their development staff.

As mentioned earlier, Craig Kimbrel was traded the day before Opening Day, along with the expensive contract of Melvin (B.J.) Upton, to the Padres for their top prospect RHP Matt Wisler, toolsy OF Jordan Paroubeck, the #41 pick in the past June’s Draft, plus veteran OFs Carlos Quentin and Cameron Maybin. It must be noted that Kimbrel signed a lengthy extension in February of 2014 and is under contract through 2018, making him slightly more valuable to Chapman in this regard.

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Therefore it appears the offer would begin with a headliner like A.J. Cole, Reynaldo Lopez, Tanner Roark or Joe Ross, along with another prospect like Erick Fedde, Nick Pivetta, Jakson Reetz or Austin Voth, in addition to a 3rd prospect. Cincinnati’s biggest organizational need appears to be major league ready pitching, as several of their top arms are set for free agency this winter. An offer headlined by Joe Ross might be too much for Cincinnati to pass on in their attempt to quickly rebuild for 2016 and 2017.

While it would be difficult for Washington to trade away so much quality pitching, it would still leave the organization with its top two pitching prospects Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, along with Tanner Roark and A.J. Cole to fill possible open rotation spots next year. It would also resolve the biggest need for the team, besides getting healthy, in adding the most intimidating and dominant reliever in baseball to their bullpen. Pairing Chapman with Drew Storen would give the Nationals the best 1-2 relief combination in the National League and allows veterans David Carpenter, Casey Janssen and Matt Thornton to capably manage the 6th and 7th innings. This deal would make Washington extremely formidable in a short playoff series.

My first offer to Cincinnati would be RHP Joe Ross, RHP Nick Pivetta and Catcher Pedro Severino for LHP Aroldis Chapman, which I think would be ultimately declined. Therefore, my final and best offer is Joe Ross and RHP Erick Fedde for Aroldis Chapman, which I believe is close to a “Yes” from Cincinnati.

3 thoughts on “Predicting a Potential Aroldis Chapman to Washington Trade

  1. The problem with looking at “comparable” trades, when considering Kimbrel, is that what seems to always be overlooked is the huge price the Padres paid: they took BJ Upton off the Braves’ hands. I think it’s going to be a package deal: whoever gets Kimbrel gets Upton too. Nats are too smart to let BJ Upton anywhere near their clubhouse.

    • Well, that just means taking on salary, really. If BJ isn’t better than the guys that the Nats have on hand, they could just release him, eat the salary, and consider it the cost of getting Kimbrel.

  2. I think that’s just too high a price. Since we are likely losing Fister and ZNN next year and The Boss has proven himself to be MLB ready (unlike Cole), I would hate to lose him. I would rather see Cole go, but clearly he is not as valuable as Ross at this point. I would do it with any pitchers no named Giolito or Ross, maybe even Roark.

    One other consideration is the message this sends to Storen. How is he likely to react to it? Remember the Soriano deal and the effect on Storen.

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