Offense at the major league level is down significantly from ten years ago. This fact has forced me to change the way I evaluate hitters and the increased value I place on a quality bat than I did even three years ago.
The fact that scoring is steadily declining year after year has me often wondering why this is happening (lets please ignore the word “steroids”) and will the next generation of young hitters be able to reverse this trend? In this vein I reached out to noted Hitting Guru and Baseball Prospectus author Ryan Parker to discuss the decline in offense, scouting prospects, and the future of hitting. Below is the transcript of our conversation –
NatsGM -> “The last 10 years has seen a sharp decline in offense at the MLB level and throughout baseball. Aside from PEDs, what are your thoughts behind why this has happened? Is it as simple as the pitching getting better and/or the hitters getting worse?”
Mr. Parker -> “Pitchers have become more athletic and hitters have gone the opposite direction. 94 used to be a big deal. Now 94 is nothing. That kind of velocity gets on hitters. Hitting is a guess and the higher the velocity the less time you have to make a guess. Also you have more defense shifts than ever so that hard line drive goes from being a single to a lineout. Training wise it seems pitchers are far ahead of hitters.”
NatsGM -> “When you work with amateur hitters, what skills can be improved and what talents is a batter “born with”?”
Mr. Parker -> “Pretty much everything can be improved. It’s more how quickly can they make the adjustments. I think something that is a born skill is want. I can help a young hitter craft a solid swing but I can’t teach the want to be in the cage everyday.”
NatsGM -> “Now, when you scout prospects both in the minors and amateurs, what in particular are you looking at or for?
Mr. Parker -> “In BP I’m big into looking at movements. Not necessarily mechanics but if a guy is real stiff in BP it’s not like he’s going to magically turn into a smooth athlete during the game. If he can move well, and has some batspeed, I’m then going to look for balance. Big leaguers are athletes. You aren’t an athlete if you are falling over yourself in BP. Results wise in BP I’m looking at how the ball comes off the bat. Obviously distance is important but hitting balls that don’t hook or slice is a huge thing for me. It indicates solid contact and good barrel control. During the games I’m going to key in on how they track and take pitches. A take is just a swing that you hit the pause button during. If a batters initial movements during a take when compared to swing are different it’s not a good sign. I don’t want hitters who miss mistakes. You better not miss mistake pitches because there will be very few of those offerings as you move up the organizational ladder.”
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NatsGM -> “We have seen obvious improvements with pitchers in recent years, particularly velocity and a focus on extension through their delivery. How do you anticipate hitters evolving in the next few years to counteract this shift?”
Mr. Parker -> “Couple of the changes I think are on the horizon for working with hitters is the implementation of hitting regimens similar to pitchers throwing long toss or weighted ball regimens. The other change is the implementation of tracking technology both on the bat like Zepp or on the flight of the ball like HitTrax. Check those out. So cool!!”
NatsGM -> “Final question, what is your biggest hitting pet peeve?”
Mr. Parker -> “My single biggest one… man I have a ton. I guess my biggest one is taking the athlete out of the swing. Hitters are so rigid and mechanical as opposed to fluid and athletic. Let these athletes move. So many hitters are schooled to hit in a way that tries to eliminate things going wrong instead of building swings that maximize what can go right.”
NatsGM -> “Thanks so much Ryan, where can people find you on social media, your work, and take a lesson from you?”
Mr. Parker -> “You can find me on twitter at RA_Parker. You can read my work and the work of people way cooler than me over at BaseballProspectus. If you want to get the full experience come on down to Charleston,SC and venture to East Coast Baseball Academy.
Last thing. Guys… Girls… This site is awesome. Ryan is the best. Tell your friends, tell your family, tell them all to get on the NatsGM train!
NatsGM -> “You are far too kind. Thanks again for joining me and talking some hitting. I hope to have you back in the future to educate us further about the baseball swing.”