7-Word Scouting Report: Still Raw Prospect with Mid-Rotation Starter Ceiling

Drafted in the 4th round of the 2010 MLB draft, the Washington Nationals signed A.J. Cole to a contract with a well over-slot $2 million dollar signing bonus shortly before the signing deadline. After signing, Cole quickly emerged as one of the top prospects in the Nationals farm system and found himself as a key piece in the Gio Gonzalez  acquisition in December 2011. When the opportunity arrived 13 months later, general manager Mike Rizzo seized the opportunity to reacquire Cole, shipping fan-favorite Mike Morse to Seattle in a 3-team deal also involving the Oakland Athletics.

Cole spent last season splitting time between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, going 13-3 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.343 WHIP and 111 strikeouts against only 32 walks in 134 innings pitched. The 22-year-old Cole possesses an ideal pitchers’ frame with a tall, lean, athletic body at 6-5 200lbs. with room to add another 10-15 pounds as he matures. Cole has an impressive 3-pitch repertoire, consisting of a blazing 91-96mph fastball, an inconsistent but impressive mid-80s biting slider, and an above-average to plus 75-79mph changeup with true downward movement.

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Cole has a relatively quiet, clean delivery from his windup, though his arm seems to lag behind his body early in his motion.  This “flaw” highlights his outstanding arm speed but occasionally makes it difficult for him to find and repeat his arm slot. Cole still needs minor league seasoning to work on correcting this, along with improving the consistency of his slider.  That said, his impressive arsenal, proximity to the majors, and power fastball make him one of the better pitching prospects currently in the minor leagues.

Possessing two above-average quality pitches in his fastball and changeup, if Cole is unable to improve his slider consistency, he still has the floor of a late-inning reliever.  However, if he is able to better command his slider in the future, Cole has a ceiling of a #3 major league starting pitcher.

Considering the depth of the Washington Nationals starting rotation, Cole is expected to begin the 2015 season as a member of Triple-A Syracuse.  Cole will use this development time to focus on pitching deeper into his outings and refining his breaking ball.  Ideally Cole would arrive in the major leagues late this season working in long-relief to ease the adjustment to major league batters, with the expectation he becomes a mainstay in the rotation beginning in 2016.