Fortunately for the Washington Nationals, general manager Mike Rizzo enters this offseason with a relatively small shopping list to fill offensively, seeking help at the keystone position along with some quality depth to round out the bench. In addition, most including myself expect the team to attempt to negotiate a long-term contract extension with shortstop Ian Desmond and youngsters Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon.

The Nationals overcame lengthy injuries to lineup stalwarts Harper, Wilson Ramos, and Ryan Zimmermann to post a solid offensive season in 2014, finishing 12th in team batting average (.253), 8th in team on-base percentage (.321), 9th in runs scored (686), 10th in home runs (152), and 10th in slugging percentage (.393). These numbers compare favorably to 2013, when the team finished 17th in team batting average (.251), 18th in team on-base percentage (.313), 15th in runs scored (656), 13th in home runs (161), and 13th in slugging percentage (.398). The ability for the offensive to collectively produce above-average numbers in spite of the numerous injuries, combined with the dominance of the pitching staff led them to 96 victories and the NL East title.

Yesterday in Part-1 I spent a hypothetical $62.750 million on the pitching staff, leaving approximately $82.250 million remaining within the stated $145mm budget. During my examination of the offense, I attempted to find a permanent solution at second base and improve the versatility of the bench while not parting with prospect depth and staying below payroll.

Total Projected 2015 Payroll: $145 million (136.85mm in 2014)

Current 40-Man Roster (17): Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Pedro Florimon, Kevin Frandsen, Bryce Harper, Jeff Kobernus, Sandy Leon, Jose Lobaton, Nate McLouth, Tyler Moore, Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon, Steven Souza Jr., Denard Span, Michael Taylor, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman

Transactions
#1 Re-Signed INF/OF Kevin Frandsen – 1-yr $1mm + $300k incentives
#2 Sign SS/2B Stephen Drew – 1-yr $6.5mm + Incentives
#3 Trade LHP Ross Detwiler to Toronto for 1B/3B Juan Francisco (Edit: Detwiler to Boston for Francisco)
#4 Trade OF Steven Souza and (Another Prospect) to San Diego for RHP Kevin Quackenbush
#5 Outrighted Catcher Jhonatan Solano and INF Pedro Florimon

Lineup
Catcher   Wilson Ramos   $ 3,200,000
1B Ryan Zimmerman      $ 14,000,000
2B (Stephen Drew)              $ 6,500,000
SS Ian Desmond                  $ 11,000,000
3B Anthony Rendon            $ 2,000,000
LF Jayson Werth                 $ 21,571,000
CF Denard Span                     $ 9,000,000
RF Bryce Harper                    $ 2,500,000
Total                                            $ 69,771,000

Behind the dish again in 2015 for the Nationals will be Wilson Ramos, who struggled through two separate DL stints to post a .267/.299/.399 batting line with 11 homers over 88 games played. Ramos rates as an average or slightly better defensive catcher and possesses home run power to all fields. Only 27, Ramos has struggled with various injuries throughout his career, but if he could ever stay on the field for 110+ games, he has all-star level talent. Ramos will receive a nifty raise in his second stab at arbitration and should pair with Jose Lobaton to make one of the best catching tandems in the National League.

Similarly Ryan Zimmerman suffered through an injury-plagued 2014 season to post the worst season of his career, with a .280/.342/.449 and 5 home runs over 214 at-bats. The long-time fixture at the hot corner and the Face of the Franchise, age and injuries should force a permanent switch to first base for Zimmerman next year. Still only 30-years-old, the shift to the easier defensive position could help Zimmerman unleash his immense offensive talent as a career .286/.352/.476 hitter. If Zimmerman can stay healthy, he is one of the favorites to win the Silver Slugger award for first baseman next year.

As stated earlier in the piece, the biggest offensive question mark entering this winter is at second base. Danny Espinosa has struggled mightily batted left-handed and is strongly rumored to be giving up switch-hitting this offseason. The free agent market is rather shallow, with the best options including Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew and Jed Lowrie. In addition, the trade market does not appear robust either, with few teams aside from the Cubs and Diamondbacks seemingly have some depth to deal. The Nationals will spend this winter seeking their permanent solution at second base, but eventually expect them to pass on the 3-year contract demands for Cabrera and Lowrie or the cost in prospects involved in acquiring someone via trade. This leads me to believe the team will work out a 1-year pact with Scott Boras’ client Stephen Drew.

Drew suffered through a nightmarish 2014 campaign, in which he failed to sign as a free agent last winter primarily due to the draft pick compensation attached to signing him. This caused him to wait to sign until nearly June to re-sign with the Red Sox, thus giving the 31-year-old no spring training to prepare for the season. Drew played in only 85 games last season, batting a miserable .162/.237/.299 and now finds himself likely seeking a 1-year contract in free agency this winter to rebuild his value before signing a multi-year contract next offseason. The left-handed hitting Drew is a career .267/.336/.443 hitter against righties and is known as a quality defender at shortstop. Certainly second base would be an adjustment for him, but Drew would make an excellent platoon partner with Espinosa and could be properly motivated playing under a 1-year “make good” type contract.

Although the numbers felt subpar for him, Ian Desmond captured his 3rd consecutive Silver Slugger award, batting .255/.313/.430 with 24 home runs and 91 runs batted in. Desmond finds himself entering 2015 as his last year under contract before reaching free agency, thus expect the Nationals to have extension talks with him this winter. Count on Desmond playing shortstop for the Nationals on Opening Day 2015.

Only the English vocabulary can limit the superlatives to describe Anthony Rendon’s outstanding 2014 season, batting .287/.351/.473 with 21 home runs, 83 runs batted in, and 17 stolen bases. These terrific numbers also allowed him to capture 5th place in the NL MVP voting and the Silver Slugger at third base. Only 24-years-old Rendon has established himself as one of the brightest young stars in baseball, and should man the hot corner in Washington for the next 5 years.

Returning to form one of the best outfields in baseball, Washington should start Jayson Werth in left field, Denard Span in center field, and Bryce Harper in right field. Yes, I said Werth in left, as his age and range to his left have reached the point where he needs to move to left field and the Nationals should capitalize on Harper’s cannon-like throwing arm and excellent speed. Nonetheless, Werth had another strong season in 2014, hitting .292/.394/.455 with 16 home runs in 147 games played. Signed for another three seasons, the Nationals would be wise to shift Werth higher in the order to capitalize on his excellent on-base skills and his diminishing power; in addition, moving Werth to left field could shield his decreasing athleticism and highlight his present skills and baseball IQ.
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In the easiest decision since a bartender asked me “Want another”, the Nationals quickly picked up Span’s $9 million option a few weeks ago, as he is coming off a strong season hitting .302/.355/.416 with 5 home runs and 31 stolen bases in 2014. Only under contract for one additional season, Span’s name will be continually in trade rumors this winter. That said I expect Span to spend 2015 in Washington, hitting atop the lineup, playing a dynamic center field, and allowing uber-prospect Michael Taylor additional development time at Triple-A.

Finally, Bryce Harper failed to have his breakout season in 2014 come to fruition due to a midseason thumb injury. Harper only appeared in 100 games for the Nationals last season, hitting a substandard .273/.344/.423 and 13 home runs. However Bryce was a standout for the Nationals in the postseason, and a full offseason to rest and recover should have him poised for a monster season in 2015. Matt Williams will likely move Harper up in the order next year and would be wise to improve the outfield defensively by moving him to right field.

Bench
#1 Jose Lobaton         $ 1,200,000
#2 Nate McLouth      $ 5,000,000
#3 Kevin Frandsen    $ 1,000,000
#4 (Juan Francisco)   $ 2,100,000
#5 Danny Espinosa   $ 2,200,000
Bench Total                 $ 11,500,000

Offense Total                      $ 81,271,000
Pitching Total                   $ 62,750,000
2015 Overall Payroll    $ 144,021,000

Although his offensive numbers suffered in his switch to the National League, backup catcher Jose Lobaton had a strong defensive season for Washington in 2014. His effect on starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez was particularly noticeable. The 30-year-old switch-hitting catcher should see a small salary increase this winter in his second trip through arbitration and does not reach free agency until 2018. Lobaton should see his numbers rebound in 2015 and is a quality backup catcher.

Nate McLouth struggled through a nightmarish season in 2014, posting a .173/.280/.237 batting line before being shut down with a right shoulder injury. This is far from the production the Nationals were counting on when they signed him last winter to a 2-year $10mm contract with a 3rd year option. Unfortunately the Nationals have little choice but to optimistically hope his offensive struggles were directly attributable to his injury. If so, McLouth could be an invaluable piece for Washington’s bench in 2014, as his defensive versatility, left-handed bat, and stolen base proficiency make him an ideal 4th outfielder.

Last Friday Washington re-signed Kevin Frandsen to a 1-year contract worth $1 million plus $300,000 in possible incentives. The 32-year-old Frandsen slugged .259/.299/.309 with 1 home run in 220 at-bats last season while seeing action at first, second, and third base along with left field for the Nationals. A career .259/.313/.350 hitter, Frandsen has played each position except pitcher, center field and catcher during his major league career, and is so versatile he served as the team’s emergency catcher in 2014. In addition Frandsen showed a knack for pinch-hitting last season, producing 11 hits, tied for 10th in the NL. A valuable clubhouse leader, much of Frandsen’s value lies in his defensive versatility and locker room contributions.

The Nationals bench lacks a left-handed hitting bat with some thump, and as mentioned in yesterday’s article, I believe the team should target Juan Francisco from Toronto to resolve this issue. Francisco is a flawed player but pounds right-handed pitching (career .786 OPS) and can play both corner infield positions. Due to the roster surplus of corner infielders in Toronto, perhaps a deal surrounding Ross Detwiler for Francisco could appeal to both teams.

This leaves the last remaining spot on the bench for veteran Nationals infielder Danny Espinosa. Most expect him to be with another organization next spring, but I would hold off on selling low on his talents and see if his switch to hitting only right-handed rejuvenates his offensive numbers. Scheduled to earn around $2 million in his first year of arbitration, he should serve as a cheap platoon partner with Stephen Drew and provides the Nationals a possible solution at shortstop if Ian Desmond departs next winter.

This hypothetical bench construction would leave the Nationals with a roster conundrum concerning Tyler Moore, a hitter with notable right-handed power but who is out of minor league options. In addition, recent waiver claim versatile utility infielder Pedro Florimon, along with depth catchers Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano are also out of minor league options.

Providing further depth at the Triple-A level would be the versatile Jeff Kobernus and top outfield prospect Michael Taylor. Kobernus offers a quality combination of speed and position flexibility, as he can play virtually anywhere on the field defensively. Michael Taylor projects as the centerfielder of the future in Washington, but a return to AAA would be ideal to allow him to further polish his overall game before a likely permanent midseason promotion.

****

Although the easy thing to do in one of these articles is propose signing Max Scherzer and Pablo Sandoval and trading for Mike Trout, considering where the Nationals are both with their roster and payroll, expect a quiet winter in NatsTown. Obviously there will be trade rumors concerning Jordan Zimmermann and the other players nearing free agency, but I hope and think the Nationals will hesitate to tinker too heavily with the core of this team. Remember, the Nationals had the best record in the National League last year and lost a close playoff series to the eventual world champions, they are not far from capturing a title themselves.

Therefore with that in mind, offensively I would look to find a player to pair with Danny Espinosa at second base and tweak the bench. If I could convince either Cabrera or Lowrie to sign for only two years, I would quickly make that happen. However, with many more teams having middle infield needs than players available, I expect both to sign 3+ year deals in the coming weeks. Therefore I project and pronounce that Stephen Drew will likely be the best fit for the Nationals second base need considering contract terms and player talent.

The bench in 2015 should consist of a core of Lobaton, Frandsen, and McLouth, along with Espinosa unless he is traded this winter. The only major need I see is finding a left-handed bat with some power, which the team should attempt to fill cheaply either via free agency or by using superfluous part like Ross Detwiler in trade.

In conclusion this plan leaves the Nationals with a strong, well-balance starting lineup with above-average defensive skills at each position and seven players capable of 15+ home runs. Furthermore the bench now has two LHBs, two RHBs, and a switch-hitter all with home run power and Lobaton, McLouth, and Espinosa are tremendous defensive players. Also, in this exercise I only parted with 1 top prospect, Steven Souza, and stayed under budget, leaving the team poised to make midseason improvements if the need arises.

The biggest weakness involving the currently constructed offense is the propensity toward injury involving nearly every player in the starting lineup, minus perhaps Ian Desmond. As seen in recent years, the lineup can withstand one injury while still performing well, but multiple injuries often caused the offense to stagnate. I think the bench I assemble in this piece is particularly solid, but age and injuries will be the team’s Achilles heel.

Overall I am confident in the roster that has been constructed above, as I expect rebound seasons from Wilson Ramos, Ryan Zimmerman, and newcomer Stephen Drew, continued performance from Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, and Jayson Werth, and a true superstar level season for Bryce Harper. Assuming the team can withstand the injury bug and manufacture a few runs during the year, it should be another enjoyable season in NatsTown in 2015.