Much of the spotlight on Thursday’s 4-player trade between the Nationals and Tampa Bay has deservedly surrounded headliners Nathan Karns and Jose Lobaton; however, the key to this trade may ultimately come down to the two prospects sent to Washington, LHP Felipe Rivero and OF Drew Vettleson. Therefore, I contacted several industry heavyweights to get their educated opinions on these two young players. Thankfully, a few of these experts responded, and below are their thoughts on these intriguing young prospects.
R.J. Anderson, Baseball Prospectus
“The Rays have a number of other well-regarded international arms, including Enny Romero and Alex Colome, so it was easy for the tiny Rivero to get lost in the crowd. At his best, he’s got three average or better offerings, including easy heat from the left side. Because of Rivero’s body and mechanical inconsistencies, there’s always been a chance he moves to the bullpen in the future. But, with some refinement, it’s possible he becomes a back-of-the-rotation starter.”
“A year ago it was common to think of Vettleson as a potential regular. He struggled during his first go-round in the Florida State League—at least when it came to power production. While the FSL is a tough environment to hit, it’s worth noting that Vettleson’s pop has been an area of concern before. He’s a bit of a tweener; he has the cannon arm (he switch-pitched in high school) and defensive traits to play right field, but his bat would fit better in center field. Escaping the FSL should help rekindle Vettleson’s prospect candle, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him reach the majors as a platoon outfielder someday, with a chance at regaining his everyday regular status.”
Jason Parks, Baseball Prospectus
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“Rivero: I’ve always liked Rivero, although his size and command profile could limit his upside in a rotation. He can pump the fastball into the mid-90s, and he is actually much stronger than his frame would suggest. But the delivery gets out of whack and he struggles to make quick in-game adjustments to put it back together. He’s a legit prospect because a lefty with heat is going to pitch in the majors, but the likely outcome is a relief role, perhaps of the late-innings variety if he secondary stuff can find more consistency and the command improves a full grade. The Nats are getting two future major leaguers in Vettleson and Rivero, but unless developmental magic takes place, the roles will be fringe and the outcomes will lack much impact.”
“Vettleson: It’s probably more of a 4th OF profile at the end of the day; a quality corner glove with a strong arm and some pop in the stick. Power is a potential carrying tool but he can get tied up by good velo and struggles to keep his hands back on quality off-speed. He’s a good but not great prospect, which is what made him expendable. Unlikely to come back to bite the Rays for trading him in, but he still has a major league projection and could end up carving out a productive career as a below-average regular or bench outfielder.”
Marc Hulet, FanGraphs
“I, for one, am excited about this deal for the Nationals. They made out very well.
I had Rivero ranked as the 10th best prospect in the system and Vettleson was just outside the Top 15. Rivero just needs to improve his fastball command to realize his full potential. Even so, I’d rank him as the second best lefty in the system behind Sammy Solis who gets the edge because he’s more advanced.
Vettleson has a solid hit tool but the lack of developed power knocks him down a peg or two. If he can tap into his raw, left-handed power he could hit 15-20 homers, which would make him a more attactive option as a corner outfielder. I’d rate him as the third-best outfielder in the system behind Brian Goodwin and Steven Souza.
The Nats got a great return in catcher Jose Lobaton and two Top 10 prospects for Nate Karns, who I had ranked as the fourth-best prospect in the system prior to the deal.”
Jim Callis, MLB.com
“Both Rivero and Vettleson are interesting prospects, but I don’t love either. Rivero is a little lefty with good velocity and a promising changeup, but he doesn’t miss a lot of bats or throw a lot of strikes. He looks a lot more like a reliever than a starter. Vettleson has decent tools but he’s more of a tweener than an everyday outfielder. He has some bat speed but I don’t think you can project his ceiling as more than an average hitter with average power — and that’s his ceiling. He doesn’t run well enough to play center. Nice pickups but they’re both complementary players.”
A special Thank You to R.J. Anderson, Jim Callis, Marc Hulet, and Jason Parks for graciously sharing their time and thoughts for this article.