After many years of speculation, the myth that is Japanese right-handed pitcher Masahiro Tanaka has finally been posted by the Rakuten Eagles of the NPB, and will pitch in the major leagues in 2014. Tanaka was dominant this past season, going 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA, 183 strikeouts against only 32 walks over 212 innings. For his 7-year career, Tanaka has a 99-35 record with a 2.30 ERA, an 8.5 K/9 rate, and a 4.5 K/BB ratio over his 1,315 professional innings pitched. As the rules regarding Japanese players transitioning to the major leagues has changed and now costs a refundable $20 million dollars to negotiate with Tanaka, expect ten or more teams to bid on the services of this 25-year-old pitcher.
With all due respect to Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka, Masahiro Tanaka arrives in America as the most hyped Japanese player in baseball history. Armed with an impressive four-pitch arsenal consisting of a 90-96mph 4-seam fastball, a 90-92mph sinker, a quick breaking curveball, and a devastating splitter, Tanaka flashes the repertoire to compete in Major League Baseball. Tanaka possesses excellent control with a career 1.9 BB/9 ratio (1.1, 1.0, 1.4 the past three years), and scouts rate his mechanics as solid or slightly above-average. Having four quality pitches, a mid-90s fastball, and outstanding command of the strike zone, Tanaka profiles as a strong #3 starting pitcher in the majors with upside to be better with some slight refinement to his mechanics as he matures.
Tanaka is somewhat less physically imposing than the average starter, as he is listed as a slender 6-1 190lbs, which when combined with heavy pitch counts and 1,315 career innings pitched lends many to fear future injuries. In addition, while Yu Darvish has had great success in the majors, Tanaka does not possess the pure stuff or sound pitching mechanics that Darvish does, meaning he is unlikely to replicate Darvish’s early career dominance in the United States. Finally, considering the dearth of pitching in the major leagues and the large number of suitors trying to sign him, the contract Tanaka eventually signs is likely to be so grand it will be nearly impossible for him to live up to the terms of the deal.
As currently constructed, the Nationals starting rotation is well positioned with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Doug Fister all under contract for at least two more seasons. Also, the team has sufficient competition for the 5th starter position with Ross Detwiler, Taylor Jordan, Tanner Roark, and prospects A.J. Cole, Matt Purke, Sammy Solis, and Lucas Giolito developing in the minor leagues. That said, aside from Giolito, none of the pitchers mentioned above have Tanaka’s potential, and adding him would bolster the Nationals chances of capturing a World Series.
Unfortunately most every team in major league baseball wants to add a young, mid-rotation starter, meaning the bidding for Tanaka’s services should be intense. In 2007, the Boston Red Sox signed Matsuzaka for 6-years and $52 million, after paying $51 million in a posting fee to his Japanese team. Early in 2012, the Texas Rangers paid $51.7 million dollars to negotiate with Darvish, and eventually signed him for 6-years and $60 million dollars. Now that the posting fee has a $20 million maximum, many teams will be enticed to negotiate and Tanaka should benefit from the number of suitors with a much larger contract. Nevertheless, these contracts, including posting fees, provide us with a baseline of what it will cost to sign Tanaka, approximately 6-years and $100+ million.
This baseline probably limits his market to the higher payroll teams with aggressive owners, which immediately makes the Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers among the favorites to sign Tanaka. While further down the list, I would expect the Nationals to be a darkhorse in the negotiations, as Mr. Lerner has deep pockets and the ability to massage Tanaka’s salary into the team’s payroll. Also, the team has previously expressed an interest in being a “worldwide franchise” and signing Tanaka would immediately make them one of the most popular teams in Japan.
With those considerations, I would expect the Nationals to be a bidder up to around 6-years and $110 million, essentially the Darvish contract, but will bow out of the competition once it surpasses this figure and turn their attention to signing contract extensions with Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann. Tanaka should have multiple 6-year offers to choose from, and I predict it will take an organization guaranteeing a seventh year in order to secure his services.
NatsGM Prediction -> Tanaka signs with the Chicago Cubs, 7-years $143 million