Earlier this week notable FoxSports reporter Ken Rosenthal tweeted the Nationals were heavily pursuing another elite starting pitcher this offseason, namely David Price or Max Scherzer, to pair with Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmermann. Scherzer, the leading contender for the 2013 Cy Young award, surprisingly could be available as Detroit looks to move LHP Drew Smyly into their rotation and fill more pressing needs at second base and closer.
Scherzer, 29-years-old, finished this season 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts over 214.1 innings pitched. Arizona’s 1st round pick in 2006 when Mike Rizzo was their scouting director, Scherzer has a career 73-45 record, a 3.67 ERA, and 1,069 strikeouts over his 1,019 innings pitched. In his final season of salary arbitration before reaching free agency, Scherzer is expected to command between $13-14 million in 2014.
Only under contract for one season before reaching free agency, the price to acquire Scherzer should still be quite steep, as true #1 starting pitchers are rarely made available; thus, probably 8-15 teams will inquire on Scherzer’s potential availability. Aside from the connection to Rizzo, the Scherzer rumor makes sense as the Nationals could offer second baseman Anthony Rendon and reliever Drew Storen to resolve Detroit’s two biggest needs.
Using Rendon and Storen as the beginning of negotiations, Detroit should still command one or two additional prospects, as Scherzer will return draft pick compensation next winter if he departs as a free agent. The Nationals would seemingly exclude top prospect Lucas Giolito from negotiations, which by default should force them to offer Detroit a choice of prospects A.J. Cole or Brian Goodwin. Finally, Detroit would probably insist on a final, lesser regarded prospect like Brett Mooneyham or Michael Taylor.
Assuming the deal centers on a package of Rendon, Storen, and Cole/Goodwin, the Nationals should strongly consider trading for Scherzer. Theoretically the Nationals could replace Rendon with Danny Espinosa at second base, and relievers Tyler Clippard and Rafael Soriano can help cover the loss of Storen in the bullpen.
The loss of two prospects, especially Cole, would further deplete the farm system, but the demonstrable upgrade to the starting rotation would immediately make the Nationals the favorites to win the National League. Having Scott Boras as his agent, the Nationals could face a difficult, and expensive, proposition of signing Scherzer long-term, but the near guarantee of draft pick compensation provides an excellent safety net if he signs elsewhere next winter.
In the end, I am skeptical Detroit trades Scherzer, as I anticipate they will load up for another World Series run next season, and keeping him helps achieve that goal. If indeed Detroit makes him available, I would expect another team coveting a front-line starting pitcher to better the Nationals potential offer of Rendon, Storen, Cole, and a Prospect. However, if they can convince Detroit to make this hypothetical deal, they should seize the opportunity to bring Scherzer to Washington.
**** Reminder, please return next Monday (11/11) and Wednesday (11/13) as I publish my 3rd Annual NatsGM Offseason Manifesto, in which I unveil my hypothetical master plan if I served as Nationals’ general manager. Thanks for stopping by. ****
I would hope that any package that includes Rendon would bring back more than a one year rental. That would be a terrible deal for the Nats…if the Nats are going to trade their farm team, trade for a future 1b, 3b or CF that has more service years than 1 or 2 year.
Here is what they should do. Sign a better bench – starting with Boesch, Hart or similar to one year, incentive like deals (both can play 1b/cOF), additional catcher, infielder, etc. Add depth to the bullpen, you’ve mentioned some names, Howell, O’Fla, etc. and add a #3/4 SP through the FA process like Nolasco (although I saw on MLBtraderumors.com is asking for insane amount of money and years – at some point after contacting all the FAs that Rizzo is interested in and gauging their demands – it may a small delta to go get Tanaka -not going to happen, but it’s a thought). And if you have to make a trade go young with a track record rather than Price or Scherzer. Tons of good young pitching currently.
I agree … way too much for a 1 year rental. I think the advantage of looking into Scherzer is that Detroit would have to take significantly less than Tampa for Price (1 year vs 2). I think Rendon & Storen would be more than enough by themselves to get it done if Detroit really was willing to trade, but I don’t think they will be able to move forward with this after he wins the Cy Young. Also not sure I would be willing to give up Rendon with no good backfill … I think a more realistic package for one year would be Cole / Storen /Roark or Jordan / Lombardozzi, but again, I don’t think that is lopsided enough for Detroit to be willing to trade.