Now that the 2013 Washington Nationals season has ended without a playoff appearance, Davey Johnson’s tenure as manager in Washington has come to a rather abrupt conclusion.  While his final season in Washington did not result in a World Series championship and parade along Constitution Avenue, Davey completes his time in Washington with a 224-183 record, and leaves the job in a stronger position than when he arrived a few years ago. 

With three excellent starting pitchers in Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmermann, and an budding superstar in Bryce Harper, managing in Washington is a premier job in baseball and the Nationals will have their choice of impressive candidates this fall.  Many consider current bench coach Randy Knorr to be the favorite to succeed Davey Johnson, but there have been numerous names connected to the job in recent weeks. 

In homage to the Breeders’ Cup, horse racing’s biggest day which takes place later this month, I have handicapped the top contenders to replace Davey Johnson as the next manager of the Nationals. 

****

Joe Girardi

Strengths:

A solid major league catcher, Girardi has proven to be a quality manager first with the Marlins and currently with the Yankees, whom he led to a World Series championship in 2009.  His track record of success and experience in the postseason make him an attractive candidate.

Weaknesses:

Although technically a free agent, Girardi has a nice gig as the manager of the Yankees and seemingly could remain in New York if he desires.  Known to have perceived interest in the Cubs job in the past, Girardi may be waiting to see if Chicago offers him their vacant managerial position this winter.

                Chances of Hire:                               2%

Trent Jewett

Strengths:

A former successful minor league manager with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Jewett joined the Nationals coaching staff in 2010 as their 1^st base coach, before shifting to 3^rd base this season after Bo Porter’s departure.  With a proven track record in the minor leagues and familiarity within the Nationals organization, Jewett should not be overlooked as a strong dark-horse candidate.

Weaknesses:

Similarly to other candidates, Jewett’s lack of experience managing professionally is the biggest flaw on his resume, not to mention the fact that he seems to currently trail Randy Knorr as the in-house candidate to replace Davey Johnson.

                Chances of Hire:                               15%

Randy Knorr

Strengths:

The Nationals current bench coach, Knorr has been seemingly groomed for the job since becoming part of the Montreal Expos organization back in 2001.  Knorr has coached or managed much of the Nationals roster at some point during his tenure, and is the leading contender to manage the team in 2014.

Weaknesses:

Although he has managed in the minor leagues and served as a bench coach in the majors, Knorr has never managed in the major league and his lack of experience is a possible negative.

                Chances of Hire:                               40%

Charlie Manuel

Strengths:

A noted hitting connoisseur with a World Series ring on his resume as a manager, Charlie Manuel has a strong backer in Jayson Werth from their time in Philadelphia.  His success in the postseason and experience managing in a pennant race should intrigue the Nationals.

Weaknesses:

Nearly 70-years-old, the Nationals may wish to find a manager with the potential to remain in the dugout for 5-10 years, something Manuel is unlikely to accomplish.

                Chances of Hire:                               2%

Bo Porter

Strengths:

The Nationals 3^rd base coach in 2011 and 2012, Porter was named manager of the Houston Astros last year.  Porter showed quality leadership skills and the potential to be an excellent manager this season in an otherwise difficult year for the Astros.

Weaknesses:

Porter is currently under contract with Houston and seemingly in favor with their front office, which should make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to hire him away from the Astros.

                Chances of Hire:                               5%

Cal Ripken Jr.

Strengths:

As a Hall of Fame player with the reputation as one of the hardest working players in the history of the game, one would expect Ripken would quickly capture the respect of any locker room.

Weaknesses:

Ripken has never held a managerial or front office job in professional baseball since retiring and many question if he wants to spend the amount of time on the road necessitated by serving as a major league manager. 

                Chances of Hire:                               1%

Matt Williams

Strengths:

A former MLB all-star and current 3^rd base coach for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Matt Williams is one of the top managerial prospects in all of professional baseball.  Williams is expected to be a hot commodity this offseason for the many available managerial positions.

Weaknesses:

Although Williams has served on the Arizona coaching staff since 2009, he has never served as a professional manager, and this inexperience is the only true negative on his impressive resume.

                Chances of Hire:                               25%

“The Field”

Strengths:

With plenty of other excellent candidates available, namely Brad Ausmus and Jay Bell, along with the potential for other managers such as Bruce Bochy and Mike Scioscia to be fired in the upcoming weeks, the managerial pool seems unusually deep with quality candidates this winter.

Weaknesses:     

General manager Mike Rizzo, and the Nationals, have shown in their relatively brief history a tendency to hire those within the organization or with direct and strong ties to those already with the Nationals.  It would be a surprise if the Nationals manager in 2014 is not one of the top candidates listed above.

                Chances of Hire:                               10%