After waiting more than four hours on Thursday evening to finally be on the clock, when pick #68 finally arrived, the Washington Nationals selected Dallas Baptist University right-handed pitcher Jake Johansen.  The Nationals forfeited their 1^st Round pick last offseason as compensation for signing reliever Rafael Soriano, making Johansen Washington’s first and only pick on Day 1 of the 2013 MLB Draft. 

Owning an ideal, massive and still-projectable pitcher’s frame at 6-6 235lbs, Johansen has the body of a durable, workhorse starting pitcher.  That said, Johansen is best known as having one of the most powerful fastballs in this year’s draft class, regularly sitting 93-96mph touching 99mph, and has shown the ability to hold his velocity deep into his appearances.  In addition, Johansen features an upper-80s slider that resembles a cutter with its movement, an inconsistent but intriguing curveball, and a woefully underdeveloped changeup.   

A 22-year-old redshirt-junior, Johansen has been drafted twice before in his career, first by the Mets in the 45^th round in 2009 out of high school, and in the 27^th round by the Pirates last year as a draft-eligible sophomore.  His numbers this season at Dallas Baptist were not particularly impressive, as Johansen threw 88.1 innings over his 15 starts (5.87 innings per appearance), and posted a 5.40 ERA with 109 hits and 26 walks allowed against 75 strikeouts.  The one number that does positively stand out is the 26 walks, a paltry total for such a hard-throwing but unrefined pitcher, which leads me to believe he has some command of the strike zone. 

The Nationals will develop Johansen as a starter, with the thought that with some minor adjustments he can improve his breaking pitches and pitching plenty of minor league innings will develop his changeup and polish his overall game.  Johansen’s secondary offerings severely lag behind his massive fastball, but as a still-raw but coachable athlete with a 95+mph fastball and the ability to throw strikes, he is a pitching coach’s dream.

Although he is technically a college pitcher, if the Nationals truly intend to develop Johansen as a starter, he will need significant development time in the minors and his path might be more typical of a high school pitching prospect.  If he remains a starter and if his secondary pitches show dramatic improvement (both Big Ifs) Johansen has an eventual ceiling of a good #3 starting pitcher with a plus fastball, above-average slider, and average changeup. 

More likely, he will revert to the bullpen sometime in 2-3 years and reach the major leagues as a quality two-pitch impact reliever.  Unfortunately, because Johansen is still so raw and dependent on his incredible arm strength, there is also an excellent chance he flames out at Double-A and never reaches the major leagues.

A fascinating pick by General Manager Mike Rizzo due to the extreme risk verses reward involving his future, expect Johansen to sign relatively quickly and be sent to short-season Auburn to limit and monitor his workload the rest of this summer.  While I appreciate the Nationals taking a chance on potential, considering college pitchers Bobby Wahl and Alex Balog and high school catcher Jonathan Denney were still available, I must admit I question this pick and personally would have selected another player.

NatsGM Grade ->       C