As the Washington Nationals continue to cruise toward their first ever playoff appearance, one of the biggest concerns with the team is the lack of success in recent starts with star pitcher Jordan Zimmermann. Over his previous five starts and 25.1 innings pitched, Zimmermann has posted a 6.04 ERA and has allowed 32 hits and 8 walks against 23 strikeouts, a far cry from his season numbers of 3.01 ERA in 164.2 innings pitched with 158 hits and 33 walks allowed and 122 total strikeouts. Since he pitched 161.1 innings in 2011 and had Tommy John surgery in 2009, the easy conclusion to reach is that Zimmermann has begun to wear down and the quality of his stuff has dissipated. However, as Adam Kilgore accurately pointed out in the Washington Post on Tuesday, the raw numbers show that his velocity was above his season average last Saturday, somewhat discrediting the fatigue argument. With this in mind, I charted Zimmermann’s start Thursday evening with my scouting hat on, focusing on his performance and looking for the reasons behind his recent poor performance or any adjustments he has made to improve.
In a game that will be remembered far more for the emptying bullpens, quasi-fights, and Bo Porter charging the Chicago Cubs dugout, Jordan Zimmermann settled down after some early scuffles to pitch 7 innings, giving up 5 hits and 2 earned runs, with one walk and 9 strikeouts. He allowed one home run amidst his 96 pitches, 68 of which were strikes, consisting of 70.8% fastballs, 13.5% sliders, and 15.6% curveballs. His fastball velocity stayed between 93-96mph most of the evening, with an average of 94.9mph, and his slider was between 87-90mph, averaging 88.6mph: both numbers are superior to his season averages of 93.8mph and 86.2 respectfully. (Thanks to BrooksBaseball.net and Fangraphs.com for the math help) Although the Cubs lineup was not particularly intimidating last night, Jordan Zimmermann showed why he is one of the better starting pitchers in the National League, as he pairs an above-average or “60” grade fastball, slider, and curveball with good command and control of the strike zone. Zimmermann only threw two poor pitches all night, the 3-0 fastball to Anthony Rizzo in the 1st inning and the 0-0 slider to Darwin Barney in the 2nd inning, otherwise he was locating his pitches well and keeping the Cubs lineup off-balance.
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