On our final day previewing the 2012 MLB Draft, I wanted to project the 1st Round with my version of a Mock Draft, as well as answer some draft questions I have received from the audience in the past few days. Last season I correctly predicted 4 first round selections, as well as two of the Nationals first three picks in Alex Meyer and Brian Goodwin. Like Adam Dunn, I promise to rebound this year with better numbers, so without further ado, here is my 2012 MLB Mock Draft.
NatsGM’s 1st Round MLB Mock Draft
#1 – Houston Astros – Stanford RHP Mark Appel
With the choice between Appel and Georgia HS outfielder Byron Buxton, I believe they will choose the polished starting pitcher who should move quickly through the minors. If Appel can improve his slider, he could be one of the better starting pitchers in major league baseball down the road.
#2 – Minnesota Twins – Georgia HS OF Byron Buxton
Buxton has solid to plus tools across the board and is incredibly impressive to watch. He will move slowly through the minor leagues and needs polish, but his skills are off-the-charts and the Twins should be happy he is available at #2.
#3 – Seattle Mariners – Florida Catcher Mike Zunino
Tough pick here, as the Mariners are normally tough to predict, but I think they make a safe choice here and select Zunino, the top college hitter in this class, over Carlos Correa, who has more upside potential. Zunino is a great leader with above-average defensive skills and hitting ability and should be a solid career major leaguer.
#4 – Baltimore Orioles – Louisiana State RHP Kevin Gausman
The Orioles will be tempted by Correa’s package of tools and potential, but I think they will choose one of the top college starters, and I think Gausman’s upside will eventually sway the Orioles to choose him at #4.
#5 – Kansas City Royals – San Francisco RHP Kyle Zimmer
The Royals figure to take whomever is remaining of Appel, Gausman, and Zimmer, as ideally they would find a advanced pitching prospect to pair with their strong contingent of young hitters they possess in the organization. Zimmer has a solid repertoire, including a monster fastball, and should be a solid mid-rotation starter in the majors.
#6 – Chicago Cubs – Florida HS OF Albert Almora
I really like Almora’s potential and I think whichever club selects Almora will be getting a long-term building block in center field. The Cubs have been linked to Almora for a while, and I think he is a steal outside the top-4 picks.
#7 – San Diego Padres – California HS LHP Max Fried
I am struggling with this choice, as Correa has a great chance to be the pick as well, but I think the Padres opt for the California lefty with the nasty curveball in Max Fried.
#8 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Puerto Rico HS SS Carlos Correa
Lots of options for the Pirates here, but if Correa is still available at #8, his offensive potential should be too much for the Pirates to pass on. If Correa has already been chosen, Fried would be the probable selection.
#9 – Miami Marlins – Oklahoma State LHP Andrew Heaney
I do not have much of a read on Miami’s intentions, but they have a strong history of taking prospects from Oklahoma early in the draft, and I am projecting that trend to continue with Oklahoma State left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney.
#10 – Colorado Rockies – Texas HS OF Courtney Hawkins
If the draft falls this way, the Rockies should be choosing the best high school bat available between Joey Gallo, David Dahl, and Courtney Hawkins. I think they choose the athletic Hawkins over his competitors.
#11 – Oakland Athletics – Alabama HS OF David Dahl
Oakland could go in a number of directions and most every rumor has them attached to Nevada HS 3B Joey Gallo, but too often these smokescreens are an attempt by the organization to deceive others. With the team taking a long-term approach, I think they lean toward the highest ceiling player available and take David Dahl.
#12 – New York Mets – Texas A&M RHP Michael Wacha
Reports have the Mets wanting a high school hitter, but with Correa, Hawkins, and Dahl projected to be unavailable, I think New York shifts direction and takes the best college pitcher still available in polished Texas A&M starter Michael Wacha to pair with top prospects Matt Harvey and Zach Wheeler.
#13 – Chicago White Sox – Mississippi State RHP Chris Stratton
Chicago GM Kenny Williams is a difficult one to figure, but the White Sox tend to be conservative in the draft, so I think the team will survey the draft board and take the top rated pitcher still available in physical college starter Chris Stratton.
#14 – Cincinnati Reds – Arizona State SS Deven Marrero
Cincinnati has done an excellent job in recent seasons finding good value in their 1st round selections. One of my favorites in this draft class, Marrero has struggled as a junior, but would represent a steal for the Reds if he lasts until #14.
#15 – Cleveland Indians – Clemson Richie Shaffer 3B
Cleveland typically prefers college players in Round 1 and will be hoping Heaney, Stratton, or Wacha are still on the board. If not, I think Cleveland will opt for the best remaining college hitter in Clemson’s Richie Shaffer.
#16 – Washington Nationals – Duke RHP Marcus Stroman
#17 – Toronto Blue Jays – California HS RHP Lucas Giolito
A true wild card in this draft, on talent Giolito should go in the top-3, but questions with his pitching elbow and his purported bonus demands will make him a true signability issue. With numerous picks in this draft and thus, a large bonus pool, I think Toronto gambles that they can get Giolito under contract and away from UCLA this fall.
#18 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Nevada HS 3B Joey Gallo
Gallo could go higher than this, and rumors have the Dodgers wanting a pitcher rather than a hitter, but I think Gallo’s power and potential as a hitter will be too much for the Dodgers to pass on here at #18.
#19 – St. Louis Cardinals – Florida HS SS Addison Russell
Another high-ceiling talent that could go higher in the draft, Russell reportedly will be difficult to sign, but St. Louis like Toronto mentioned above, has plenty of early round picks and could tempt Russell with an over-slot offer.
#20 – San Francisco Giants – Stanford 3B Stephen Piscotty
The Giants need to get some hitting prospects to go along with their organizational pitching depth, and while you never draft for need in baseball, I think local Stanford product Stephen Piscotty could be a solid fit for the team at #20.
#21 – Atlanta Braves – Florida HS RHP Zach Eflin
If he was from Georgia, I would consider this selection a lock, as Atlanta has a strong affinity for local born high school players, but Eflin has solid potential and the Braves have a track record for drafting pitching early.
#22 – Toronto Blue Jays – Texas A&M OF Tyler Naquin
Naquin figures to be drafted late in the 1st round based on his quality bat, and I think he fits well here with Toronto as he should be a relatively easy sign as a college junior and could represent an opportunity for the Blue Jays to save some money for the Giolito pick earlier in the round.
#23 – St. Louis Cardinals – Florida HS RHP Lance McCullers Jr.
Naquin could fit here as well if the Cardinals select Addison Russell and want to save money. If not, McCullers Jr. could represent a nice value this late in Round 1 and I could see St. Louis gambling on his future potential.
#24 – Boston Red Sox – Louisiana HS SS Gavin Cecchini
Cecchini likely is picked before #24, but I did not find a logical fit earlier and with his brother Garin a member of the Red Sox already, this picks seems almost too good to be true. Cecchini has a wiry frame, good athleticism, the skills to stay at shortstop professionally, and is one of the better high school hitters in the 2012 class.
#25 – Tampa Bay Rays – Florida HS RHP Nick Travieso
The Rays appreciate high school players, especially from the state of Florida, and I think Travieso’s power fastball and ability to be a mid-rotation starter in the future makes him a logical fit here at #25.
#26 – Arizona Diamondbacks – Oklahoma HS RHP Ty Hensley
I have little idea what direction Arizona will take with this pick, but Hensley is a talented high school arm and should be drafted in this area, if not a few picks earlier, so I will slot him here as Arizona continues to collect hard-throwing pitching prospects.
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The Brewers are rumored to want one high upside player and one easy sign college player. Coulter was invited to the draft proceedings this evening in New Jersey, and his talents as a power right-handed batter with a solid frame and the potential to be a major league catcher should lead him to be picked by the Brewers (or another club) at the end of Round 1.
#28 – Milwaukee Brewers – Missouri State RHP Pierce Johnson
Johnson was hugely impressive early this spring and had great helium as a prospect, but later in his season he ran into some arm difficulties, which now leaves him as a late 1st round or supplemental 1st round pick. As probably the best available college starter left on the board, Johnson would be an easy sign and quality pick in this area of the draft.
#29 – Texas Rangers – Ohio HS LHP Matt Smoral
Texas has a reputation for taking the best player available, and at this point in the draft, lefty Matt Smoral is possibly the most talented player on the board. Smoral missed most of this season with a foot injury, but an imposing lefty with a good fastball would be a nice value here.
#30 – New York Yankees – Mississippi HS OF D.J. Davis
The Yankees love potential and often take high school players with lots of tools who lack polish at the top of the draft. Davis is unlikely to reach #30 because of his sheer talent, but every year some player has to slide on draft day, and perhaps Davis is that player in 2012. If so, I think the Yankees quickly snatch up this talented but raw athlete.
#31 – Boston Red Sox – Louisiana HS OF Stryker Trahan
Another talented player who should be off the board by pick #31, Trahan has a powerful throwing arm and pop in his left-handed bat. If he is still available in the back half of Round 1, some team is going to get a steal with this talented catcher.
In addition to the mock draft, here are a few interesting emails I have received the past few days and thought might interest the group.
Mrs. NatsGM via Email –> “Can anyone drafted this year immediately go to the major leagues?”
I would be a fool if I did not answer a question sent from my wife. It is extremely rare that someone is drafted in June and makes it to the big leagues in the same season. Not one player from the historically talented 2011 draft class made the major leagues last season, and only Chris Sale did so for the White Sox in the 2010 class.
As for this class, the only player that could plausibly see major league action this summer would be Duke RHP Marcus Stroman, if he is made a reliever. His power fastball and devastating slider are major league ready right now, and the time he would spend in the minor leagues would be developing his changeup and cutter, and making sure he is conditioned to throw 120 pitches in a start without losing command or velocity. Those issues are eliminated in relief, thus he could be an asset to a team’s bullpen this summer as a power reliever, then stretched out as a starter in future years. Thanks for the question!
Jonathan via Email -> “Do you have a Big Board or a list of your top-30 prospects for this year’s draft?”
Yes I do, though I cut it off at 20 because at that point I am forced to begin ranking players that I have not watched personally, which somewhat defeats the purpose of the exercise. Here is my list of the top-20 available prospects in this year’s draft.
My Big Board
1) Byron Buxton
2) Albert Almora
3) Lucas Giolito
4) Mark Appel
5) Deven Marrero
6) Kevin Gausman
7) Carlos Correa
8) Max Fried
9) Mike Zunino
10) Kyle Zimmer
11) Andrew Heaney
12) Marcus Stroman
13) Addison Russell
14) Michael Wacha
15) David Dahl
16) Stryker Trahan
17) Lance McCullers Jr.
18) Richie Shaffer
19) Stephen Piscotty
20) Gavin Cecchini
@MannyRo1 via Twitter -> “@NatsGMdotcom You made a prediction for the Nationals pick in Round 1, what about for Rounds 2-5?”
Happy to do so @MannyRo1, good question! As I projected in Part 4 of our Preview and earlier in my Mock Draft, I prognosticated Duke RHP Marcus Stroman to be the Nationals selection at pick #16. Assuming the team takes Stroman or another college pitcher in the 1st round, history tells us to expect them to look for another polished college pitcher with fastball velocity or an athletic player in the middle of the diamond in Rounds 2-5.
Round 2 Pick #80 Projection -> Georgia Tech OF Brandon Thomas
Thomas is an athletic, switch-hitting center field prospect from Georgia Tech that performed admirably last summer in Cape Cod and would be a nice value at pick #80. In Round 3, I would expect the Nationals to look for the best player available and perhaps scoop up a high school athlete that has fallen due to signability.
Round 3 Pick #111 Projection -> California HS 3B Trey Williams
Son of a 10-year baseball veteran, Trey has long been on scouts radar due to his bloodlines and plus right-handed raw power and hitting potential. A bit of a case of draft-itis has caused his draft stock to fall some this spring, but Williams would represent a nice value in the 3rd round. If they take Williams or another difficult to sign player in Rounds 2 or 3, I would expect the Nationals to prioritize taking college players the next few picks in order to save themselves some money. With some reasonable college pitching depth this year, I think they draft the best one available in Round 4.
Round 4 Pick #144 Projection -> Samford LHP Lex Rutledge
Rutledge is a young projectable left-handed pitcher that I like more than most, as I have seen him impress the past two summers in Cape Cod, but his command of the strike zone is below-average and his motion needs refinement. His talent and ability to throw in the mid-90s as a lefty make him a tantalizing prospect and a team willing to be patient and work with Rutledge could find a tremendous value in this area of the draft. I continue to believe the Nationals will focus on finding additional pitching in Round 5.
Round 5 Pick #174 Projection -> UCLA RHP Scott Griggs
The Nationals have had a history in recent years of selecting California collegiate pitching (Paul Applebee, Matthew Grace, Bradley Meyers, Tom Milone, and Kylin Turnbull come to mind) and I think they return to the well again in Round 5 and select Scott Griggs, an inconsistent right-handed reliever at UCLA with a monster fastball and strong strikeout numbers. His shaky command and unreliable throwing motion makes him profile as a reliever but his stuff is quality enough that he could be an asset in relief in a few seasons.
Charles from Pennsylvania via Email -> “Who are some prospects in this year’s draft that you like more than the consensus and some that you like less than most scouts do?”
A few names that immediately come to mind as players I like more than most in this draft are Missouri OF Blake Brown, Texas Christian C/OF Josh Elander, Georgia Tech RHP Buck Farmer, Jacksonville OF Dan Gulbransen, and Arizona State SS Deven Marrero. As for players I do not care for as much as the general population, names include Michigan State OF Torsten Boss, St. Johns RHP Kyle Hansen, Florida LHP/1B Brian Johnson, Florida HS RHP Nick Travieso, and Virginia SS Chris Taylor. Only time will tell if I am correct on these players. Does anyone have any personal favorites in this year’s draft class? If so, leave your choices in the comments section at the end of the article, and thanks Charles for the email.
A friendly reminder I will be Live Blogging all 40 rounds of the 2012 MLB Draft, so I encourage you to join me tonight (Monday) beginning at 7pm as we discuss the 1st round and supplemental 1st Round selections. Then return on Tuesday commencing at 12pm as I Live Blog Rounds 2-15 and finally, on Wednesday again starting at Noon as we complete Rounds 16-40. Thank you for reading.
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