As the calendar now reads February and Spring Training arrives in less than three weeks, yesterday in a rather surprising move the Nationals signed free agent right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson to a 1-year contract worth $11 million dollars, $2 million of which is deferred.  Jackson, already a 9-year veteran at only 28 years old, spent 2011 with the Chicago White Sox and St. Louis Cardinals, producing a 3.79 ERA in 199.2 innings pitched, with 148 strikeouts against 62 walks.  For his career, Jackson has a 4.46 ERA, a 6.7 K/9 rate, a 3.7 BB/9 ratio, and 1.476 WHIP (Walks plus Hits vs. Innings Pitched), though those numbers are underwhelming in part because he spent the first 250+ innings of his career in the major leagues when he clearly was not ready.  Prior to this off-season, many speculated that Jackson would sign with Washington, as the Nationals had an obvious need for a durable starting pitcher (Jackson has made 32+ starts 5 seasons in a row), he was rumored to be a trade target of the Nationals two summers ago in the Adam Dunn sweepstakes, and with Jackson’s agent being “Agent to the Nationals” Scott Boras, the fit seemed only logical.

Edwin Jackson, a 2009 All-Star with Detroit, possesses a heavy, blazing 94-95mph fastball, a potent 87-88mph slider and a mediocre changeup.  With his impressive repertoire, one would reasonably expect a stronger career strikeout ratio and more notable overall numbers.  In the last three years he has produced ERAs of 3.62, 4.47, and 3.79 and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) numbers of 4.28, 3.86, and 3.55 – solid numbers but certainly not results that correspond to his outstanding stuff.  Jackson has the stuff of a top-of-the-rotation pitcher but the reputation as an underachiever because of command issues early in his career, his pedigree as a “phenom” prospect in the minor leagues, and his lack of dominant strike out numbers in the big leagues.  It seems like a peculiar reaction, many baseball people overrated him as a prospect to the point where today he might be considered underrated in his prime of his career.  Accounting for his youth and durability, Jackson surely entered this off-season expecting to sign a multi-year deal (rumors were he was seeking a 4-year contract and that he received some 3-year offers) but decided to turn down those offers to remain in the National League and re-enter free agency next winter, undoubtedly in search of his ideal contract.

I digress at this point to ponder what the Nationals are going to do now with their starting rotation, as it would appear that there are four spots spoken for with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and now Edwin Jackson.  The 5^th starter position now has three strong candidates with Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, and Ross Detwiler, none of whom profiles particularly well as a reliever.  With Detwiler out of minor league options and Wang and Lannan not belonging in the minor leagues at this point in their professional careers, my immediate thought is that the Nationals will try to use this surplus to acquire another hitter, preferably a center fielder, before Opening Day.  How this situation shakes out immediately becomes the Nationals biggest storyline for Spring Training and a subject that will be expounded upon in the future.

While this signing further creates a logjam in the starting rotation, Edwin Jackson immediately becomes one of, if not the best, 4^th starters in baseball and the Nationals are clearly a better team now than before this signing.  It is difficult to view this move in a vacuum, as there will be corresponding moves as a result, but signing an above-average, durable starting pitcher with postseason experience to only a 1-year deal will always be viewed favorably in context of risk vs. reward.  Granted the financial obligation is fairly sizable, especially for a mid-market payroll like the Nationals, but to acquire a pitcher of Jackson’s skill level for only a 1-year commitment likely makes this one of the best value signings this off-season.  Bottom line, the Nationals have made a clear upgrade to their starting rotation for a relatively minimal cost and now possess the quality starting pitching depth needed to make a legitimate run at the playoffs this season.

 
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NatsGM Grade ->      B+

This “Tip of the Fedora” is dedicated to MLB Network’s new daily program Clubhouse Confidential – I strongly recommend this show, especially to the more numbers-oriented baseball fan.  Brian Kenny is the host and does a nice job of explaining the sometimes complicated sabermetrics jargon while keeping the show moving.  Kudos to everyone involved, well-done-

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