After a relatively quiet offseason, the Nationals finally made the “big splash” their fan base has been craving all winter, trading prospects RHP Brad Peacock, RHP A.J. Cole, LHP Tom Milone and catcher Derek Norris to the Oakland Athletics for LHP Gio Gonzalez and RHP Robert Gilliam. For Oakland, they continue their offseason rebuild with this trade, acquiring four top Nationals prospects to further strengthen their farm system while waiting for a potential future stadium in San Jose. On the other hand, by dealing for Gio Gonzalez, the Nationals quickly grabbed the attention of the National League East and stated their intentions to challenge for the playoffs in 2012.
Gio Gonzalez, a 2011 all-star for the Athletics, is a proven top-of-the-rotation left-handed starting pitcher under contract through 2015, who has pitched 200+ innings the past two seasons while posting ERAs of 3.23 and 3.12. Gonzalez, 26, possesses an above-average 92-93mph fastball, a devastating wipeout curveball, and a fringy changeup – he uses this arsenal to induce plenty of strikeouts with a career K/9 rate of 8.6. The knock on Gio has always been his below average control and the large number of walks allowed, as his elevated career BB/9 rate of 4.4 points out (league average is around 3.0-3.1). While acknowledging his short comings, Gio makes the Nationals starting rotation significantly better next season and at his age, still has the potential to improve. With this deal, the core of the Nationals rotation, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez, is now one of the best in baseball and could be together in Washington for the next four seasons.
Robert Gilliam, a 24 year old right-handed pitcher drafted in the 8th round in 2009 out of the UNC Greensboro, struck out 156 hitters in 164.1 innings at High-A last season. Gilliam throws a solid 92-94mph fastball, a below-average slider and below-average changeup, though scouts think both the slider and changeup could improve with further development. Gilliam should spend 2012 in Double-A Harrisburg, and while he is more than a throw-in in this deal, his future most likely relies in middle relief, where his fastball and slider will “play up” and he will only need a changeup on occasion.
In order to acquire such a talented, cost-controlled pitcher like Gio Gonzalez, the Nationals had to part with significant young talent in Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Derek Norris, and Tom Milone. Let there be no question, this is A LOT of young talent heading to the Athletics. Peacock had a breakout season in 2011, producing a 15-3 record with a 2.39 ERA and 176 strikeouts over 146.2 innings pitched last season, including an impressive 12 inning audition in Washington last September. Peacock, 23 years old, has a solid fastball, an inconsistent but plus curveball and below-average changeup: the development, or lack thereof, of his changeup will determine if Peacock reaches his ceiling of a #3 starter, or if he is shifted to the bullpen where his fastball/curveball combination would be potentially lethal.
A.J. Cole has the most potential of any player in this trade, and has a great chance to make the Nationals regret making this deal five years from now. Cole slipped to the 4th round in the 2010 draft because of high bonus demands, a solid commitment to the University of Miami, and a relatively lackluster senior season in high school. However, Cole had shown incredible potential the prior summer in the draft showcases and the Nationals decided to give him a $2 million dollar bonus to pass on Coral Gables and become a professional. After signing late that summer, Cole arrived in Low-A Hagerstown this season and was dominant, striking out 108 batters against only 24 walks in 89 total innings. He has a terrific fastball/slider combination but his third pitch, his changeup, is well below-average and needs significant development work. Cole, only 20 years old, should move to High-A next season and climb one level per year, but with polish and improvement from his changeup, could arrive in Oakland in 2014 or 2015 with #2 starter type potential. He has long been one of my favorites in his draft class and as a Nationals prospect, and I fear he will make the Nationals regret this trade.
Derek Norris is the prototypical “Moneyball” type player, with a low career batting average .249, including .210 this season in Double-A Harrisburg, but a strong habit of reaching base, with a career on-base percentage of .403. Scouts have long believed in his bat and keen batting eye, but the question about Norris has always been his defense and whether he could be a major league caliber defensive catcher. In the past 18 months, he has focused on his defense and the results have shown, as many scouts commented on his improvement behind the plate. I certainly noticed in the two Arizona Fall League games I watched this fall how calm and quiet he looks behind the plate, where previously he had looked a bit antsy defensively. Norris needs another season in the minors to refine his defense and improve his contact rate at the plate, but Norris should settle in as an average or better starting major league catcher, perhaps as soon as 2013.
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Both teams accomplished their goals with this trade, as the Nationals acquired the solid #2/3 left-handed starting pitcher they sorely wanted to pair with right-handers Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, while Oakland receives four terrific young talents, including three pitchers, to add to their offseason overhaul. The major criticisms of Gio Gonzalez are that he walks too many batters and that he greatly benefited from having Oakland as his home park; while both criticisms have merit, I counter that his control has shown signs of mild improvement and the benefit of shifting from the American League to the National League, with the lack of a designated hitter and the traditionally weaker lineups, should counteract a good portion of his previous home field advantages. I still contend that a free agent contract to Roy Oswalt for two years at a large annual expense would have been the more prudent solution to bolster their starting rotation, rather than parting with Peacock, Cole, and Norris all in one trade. That said, as difficult as the decision would have been, like GM Mike Rizzo, I would have pulled the trigger on this deal. However, I still grade this deal poorly because of the comparable options still available (Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, Matt Garza) and to acknowledge the risk involved in dealing multiple high-level prospects, along with my own assumption that trading A.J. Cole comes back to haunt the Nationals in the future.
Overall Grade… D+
This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to the Washington Nationals amateur scouting and development staffs. In the trade for Gio Gonzalez, the Nats traded away two 4th round picks, one 10th round pick, and one 41st round pick. This is a true testament to the jobs they have done finding talent throughout the draft, developing them to their full potential, then turning them into a top-flight starting pitcher. I want to acknowledge them and congratulate them on a job well-done in recent years!
I hope you will follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to NationalsGM@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.
Harsh grade for this trade.
Rob,
Thanks for reading and commenting… Perhaps I was a little tough, but tell me why you think it was so harsh a grade… I’m assuming you are a bigger fan of the trade than I am. Thanks again-
However, I still grade this deal poorly because of the comparable options still available (Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, Matt Garza)
Are any of the above left-handed starting pitchers? NO. Oswalt on a 1-2 to anchor a playoff bound rotation as its veteran still makes sense but he adds another right handed arm to a rotation that Davey Johnson insisted had to be more left-handed last season. With Sanchez gone … I wonder if the same deal would have worked to get David Price from the Rays … but they are so rich in prospects they woJackuld have wanted major league players. The only other pitcher that would fit would Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals. All well under 30, all power arms, all 200 IP, all could be ace of the Nats staff now and into the foreseeable future if need be.
That would not be true for Garza, Jackson and Oswalt.
Your failure to consider the fact that Davey Johnson takes advanced stats far more seriously than did Riggleman, that he sees the advantage left-handed hitting has in Nats park, as well as take into account things like youth, talent, innings pitched as well left-handedness regrettably bring a grade of D+ to this analysis.
It should graded a B- in Sickel’s terms. On both sides of the equation. The minus typically indicates the need to wait and see how it all pans out over time.
Mike Rizzo’s words echoing Davey Johnson’s from last season:
“Being left-handed was really the key to this,” Rizzo said. “We feel that he matches very nicely in between our two power right-handers in this division. It’s important to have at least a couple of left-handers in the rotation and a couple of left-handers in the bullpen because of the talented left-handed hitting of players on the other team.”
Again, none of your alternatives were as young, none left-handed.
Not the best analysis suggest you do it over.
Peric-
Your last line certainly did not feel in the Christmas spirit, but I know you were giving me an online zinger. Peric, we have gone back and forth about this topic of lefties both for the pitcher and for the hitter the Nationals need, and as you know, I simply believe the lefty thing is overrated. Obviously you and the Nationals disagree.
I have seen the numbers and understand wanting a lefty between Strasburg and Zimmermann, but it is tough for me to believe that overpaying Oswalt on a 2 year contract and keeping Peacock, Cole, Norris, and Milone in your system is not a much better solution to this dilemma than trading away their years of control with Cole/Peacock/Norris/Milone for 4 years of Gio, whose salary should jump this year through arbitration (approx $4 million). This is the essence of my argument and the reason I graded this trade somewhat harshly.
As always Peric, thanks for reading and for your comments, you keep me on my toes… Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you!
Harsh grade indeed. Also, in the Tip of the Fedora paragraph, using the rounds that a player was selected in is misleading in AJ Cole’s case because he only dropped that low due to his bonus demands and a committment to college (as was noted in the main body of the story). His talent level is not indicative of where he was selected.
Dave-
Thanks for reading and Happy Holidays to you. First, good point about AJ Cole, I had him ranked as my #6 overall talent in his draft year, and most would have agreed he was a 1st round worthy talent, so yes, referring to him as a 4th rounder is somewhat misleading. I am curious why you think my grade was harsh? After reading many of the other experts and their analysis, I think I was one of the kinder “graders” out there, so to speak.
Normally I would have graded this trade a “C”, as I think the Nationals filled a need for a front-line pitcher to pair with Strasburg and Zimmermann and like I said in my piece, I would have reluctantly made this trade. Now I have long argued I did not think this 3rd pitcher needed to be left-handed, as Peric mentioned above and clearly was a priority to GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals. Agree to disagree I suppose.
Then stepping back a bit further, there are still a few solid options available in the free agent market (Oswalt and Edwin Jackson come to mind) or in the trade market (Matt Garza, Gavin Floyd, and the recently-traded Mat Latos *I think the Nats package to Oakland was superior to San Diego’s haul) that are comparable to Gio Gonzalez. Yes I agree Gio is an upgrade and a better fit for the Nationals than signing Oswalt/Jackson, but they are comparable, and do not cost you 24 years of control of Milone, Peacock, Cole, and Norris. The Nationals still certainly have a nice farm system, but much of their depth has now been shipped to Oakland in this deal.
I believe that Oswalt (2yrs $30million) + Peacock/Norris/Cole/Milone > Gio Gonzalez. For this reason, I dropped it to a D+